The Iranian leadership was markedly disturbed in the early days of the Arab spring. But soon Iran managed to turn events in their favor. Especially in those countries where state structures have collapsed and had a civil war. Today marks Iran can be found almost everywhere. In countries beset by civil war, which is at the forefront of non-state actors, Iran makes to feel its influence through the Shia communities. Without a doubt, along with the potential Iranian covert operations no less a role in these events also play a changes in global balances and the related uncertainties.
Some statements and events that we have recently become, indicate that from the point of view of Iran, the picture could change. The statements of the new US President, trump, the speech of the Vice President of the Penny (Pence) at the Munich security conference show that in the future, with regard to Iran, will again be subject to revision. Trump at every opportunity, said that he, to put it mildly, not happy about the nuclear agreement, which in the period Obama was positioned as a success. Trump admits that is skeptical of its results. Objections and accusations of trump, as is clear by its reaction in response to Iran’s test of medium-range missiles, show that the events turn in a different direction. Given that missiles of such range are an integral “integral part” of nuclear weapons, it will become obvious that in the hands of trump passed a major trump card.
Nuclear weapons are not the only factor which makes Iran a target. In the middle East are experiencing chaos, it seems, there is no country in which Iran would not be active, and there is no event in which he secretly would not intervene. And really the list is quite long. We’re talking about the vast region and events from the Persian Gulf to the civil war in Yemen, from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Syria to Lebanon.
At the beginning of the list — the actions of Iran in the Persian Gulf. First of all, the special relationship between the Shiites, the citizens of these countries, with Iran, is problematic from the point of view of internal security and stability, which are difficult to control. If to take into account the track record, capacity and skill of Iran in this direction, it will become obvious that these ideas cannot be ignored.
On the other hand, Yemen, where civil war continues, is also an important Iranian front, which bothers Saudi Arabia. And the picture in Iraq is even more difficult than it seems. With the help of several players on this front, Iran has effectively turned this country into their backyard. There is a “psychological” advantage, which ensures the fight against ISIS (banned in Russia — approx. ed.), the potential of mobilization, organization and weapons to Shiite militants. Iran prepares conditions so that in the long term to position itself as the strongest ally of the government, “which defeated ISIS, freed Mosul”. But it does not stop there. In the Kurdish area of Northern Iraq Iran has become highly respected and active in the political, economic and military matters “local friends”.
Because of their influence in Lebanon and the growing presence in Syria Iran and more active than ever, visible on the front. This picture is a good “motive” for Israel, which disappointed the nuclear agreement, and continues to prepare at the first opportunity to take revenge on Hizbollah in 2006. Trump statements, as well as the growth of global unpredictability will probably make Iran “a priority country in the agenda” in the new period. The search for new regional and global balances as well as reaction that will demonstrate to Iran, creates the need to closely monitor our region.