As probably expected, last Sunday the tests of North Korean ballistic missiles, many analysts announced the first foreign policy challenge faced Donald trump — or at least the first challenge, not born of his own mistakes. However, to think so is to greatly overestimate the threat posed by Pyongyang — and at the same time and the possibility of the White house. There is no realistic scenario in which North Korean dictator Kim Jong-UN may declare war on South Korea or Japan. Meanwhile, until he crossed that line, affect his behavior — absolutely not Washington. So the only challenge USA Kim, is that he is quite able to compete with trump for the title of the most narcissistic leader on the planet.
Meanwhile, in reality, the first time for a presidential trump foreign policy crisis unfolding since the end of January on 7 thousand kilometers West of Pyongyang. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his armed forces seriously has renewed its efforts to destabilize the situation in Ukraine and annexation of Ukrainian territory. They slowed down his campaign for the U.S. presidential election, but a few hours after a meeting held on January 28 telephone conversation between Putin and trump it again gained momentum.
Cost main American fan of Putin cozy up in the White house, as the Russian leader seems to have decided to return to their plans to expand Russian borders in the West — and at the same time to test the strength of their enemies from NATO. In the Donbass — the Ukrainian region controlled by Pro-Russian forces and regular troops of the Moscow fight with the Kiev government again shed blood. Observers from the Organization for security and cooperation in Europe reported that the number of explosions in Eastern Ukraine soared with 420 recorded on the 26th January, to more than 10 thousand on 31 January. The attacks of the Russian troops and separatists on civilian infrastructure has claimed the lives of 13 Ukrainian soldiers and left the town Avdeevka for a week with no light at the peak of the winter cold.
How is going to react to this administration trump? The first reaction seemed ambiguous. The US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley (Nikki Haley) on 2 February criticized Russia for its continued occupation of the Crimean Peninsula, which was captured in 2014. “The United States continues to condemn the Russian occupation of Crimea and calls for an immediate put an end to it, said Haley. — Crimea — part of Ukraine. Our sanctions associated with the Crimea, will continue to act until Russia will return to Ukraine control over the Peninsula.”
However, the same day the U.S. Treasury Department announced the easing of a measure that the Obama administration has imposed against the Russian Federal security service (FSB). As reported by CNN, citing a senior state Department official, this was purely a technical decision, the purpose of which was to avoid “unintended consequences” in the business cooperation with Russia. Although it definitely was not about trump’s attempt to appease Putin, who immediately suspected some media time for such applications has been well chosen. The Ukrainians had a good enough reason to see what is happening a sign that the new occupant of the White house will not mind if his Kremlin counterpart will capture another part of Ukrainian territory.
Uncertainties about the intentions of Washington, on imposed sanctions on Russia have not disappeared and 5 February, when Vice-President Mike Pence (Mike Pence) said that the United States can revise them, if Russia will prove to be a useful ally in the fight against the Islamic state (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.). At the same time in the same day, trump spoke with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and promised him his participation in the peace talks between Kiev and Moscow.
Of course, it is hard to imagine that trump will speak at such negotiations bona fide intermediary. If to take into account the enthusiastic attitude of President Putin, Ukrainians skeptical is understandable. Moreover, even in the American intelligence community, many believe that the admiration for the Russian leader does trump unreliable. According to rumors, the security services are not included in the materials provided to the President, part of the secret information related to Russia, so he didn’t tell it to Putin during the telephone conversation.
However, attempts to keep trump in the dark will not help to keep Russia in check. Ukrainians it is necessary that the American President understood the real situation — and the sooner, the better. In contrast to the formulation in the spirit of Kabuki, which we now observe the demilitarized zone separating from each other the two Koreas, the prospect of a full-fledged war in Eastern Ukraine, where in 2014 killed more than 10 thousand people, looks scary real.
Why is the protection of Ukraine in the interests of America? There are several causes of the political, military and economic nature. The simplest of them is the fact that the U.S. is in debt to Ukraine. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington has to convince Kiev to give up its nuclear Arsenal in exchange for guarantees of protection from Russia. To the everlasting shame of President Obama, he betrayed Ukraine in 2014, allowing Russia to seize the Crimea. Now, however, trump can restore the good name of America, and at the same time and again to convince the former Soviet republics that Washington is not willing to do the same thing that was done with the Crimea.
Of course, trump is unlikely to be able to fix Obama caused the harm and to return the Crimea to Ukraine. Most likely, it will require years of difficult negotiations. However, the President can give Putin to understand that Russia’s territorial expansion must stop now — at the risk of even more severe sanctions than those imposed by Obama. It may require troops to Moscow returned the territory to Russia and Pro-Russian militants laid down their arms and made peace with Kiev. If these demands are not heard, the US and NATO must supply Ukraine necessary for self-defense weapons. However, Trump should not only tough talk with Putin, but also to achieve from Poroshenko, so that he granted Amnesty to Donbas separatists, and more equitably shared power with them.
That’s how the real foreign policy challenges.
Bobby Ghosh — editor of the Hindustan Times