The sharp escalation of violence in Eastern Ukraine sparked a wave of headlines that the President of Russia Vladimir Putin “feel” of Donald trump. Maybe it’s true. But there is another explanation. Putin had no other choice but to go to the escalation to save the “victory” in Ukraine, which supports the legitimacy of his regime. It was in the pages of Newsweek says the Director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute Leon Aron.
“But again, he probably already knew (or soon will understand) that the endless war of attrition against the army of Ukraine, which is becoming more competent and active, it will be incredibly expensive both in economic and in political terms,” writes the expert.
This gives US leverage and ability to turn the situation against Putin and “test” him in Ukraine. According to the author, to get them to change their views of the Russian President that his puppets in the Donbas is becoming economically and militarily too expensive.
Aron writes that, first, even before the Russian invasion in 2014, the Donbas has been the tangible presence of crime. And now with the advent of Pro-Russian militants lawlessness became even more. In the occupied territories is constantly undergoing “political assassinations” of militant leaders. It is possible that they destroy the agents of the Russian FSB in order to strengthen Moscow’s control.
“Putin wants to restore or manage the destroyed region. He would rather give it to Ukraine”, – stated in the article.
Second, Russia invaded Ukraine in the summer of 2014 to save the Pro-Russian militants from the then small and disorganized the Ukrainian army.
Today it is difficult to say whether the militants to reflect the hypothetical occurrence of APU, especially if the US will finally give the Ukrainians lethal weapons, as Moscow will withdraw from the Donbass troops.
“As a result, for the first time in two and a half years, Putin appeared before a difficult dilemma: to preserve the status quo in the Donbass of a possible Russian losses, cost to maintain the occupied territories and to suffer from Western sanctions or retreat and wait, when Ukraine will begin an internal political explosion,” the article says.
There is, however, a third option, which makes it impossible for the United States. It provides for the rejection of complicated and inefficient the Minsk process, the unilateral incentive to the withdrawal of Russian troops and their puppets, with the support of the UN, which approves the demilitarization of the region. Then can there be elections under the supervision of the OSCE and Donbas will receive a certain autonomy, while Ukraine’s sovereignty and control over border with Russia is undeniable.
Despite the fact that the majority of Ukrainians want to return to the Crimea and the Donbass, clearing them from the Pro-Russian militants, and also to join NATO, the United States have a unique opportunity to steer the situation in the third scenario. Due to the weak economy and the approaching presidential election in 2018, Putin may decide that escalation is the only way of preserving the stability of his regime, which relies only on patriotism and foreign adventures.
However, validation of Putin – is that the administration trump may really want to try, thus giving Moscow clearly understood that if she did not withdraw its troops from Ukraine and do not disperse their puppets, support the Ukrainian army will increase. And it will cause great pain Russia, if she chooses aggression. Yes, “checking” trump in Ukraine may be imminent. But Putin checking too.
Recall that the Washington Post wrote that the team of President of the United States Donald trump is preparing a “major deal” with Russian President Vladimir Putin can make concessions on Ukraine.
However, the Kremlin denied this information.