US Ambassador to the UN about Russia

Thursday, February 2, Nikki Haley (Nikki Haley) that Donald trump was appointed to the post of U.S. Ambassador to the UN, made a sharp criticism of Russia, saying that sanctions will not be lifted as long as Russia does not return Crimea to Ukraine. At first glance, the statement Haley seems to be contrary to the position of the White house, which announced readiness to establish relations with Moscow. However, many observers and investors had to notice that Haley was quite careful in his wording: she has not commented on the sanctions against Russian banks and energy companies, followed by watching wall Street.

“Crimea is part of Ukraine, she said, referring to the Peninsula Moscow annexed in March 2014. — Sanctions imposed in connection with the seizure of the Crimea, will not be lifted until Russia will return control of the Peninsula to Ukraine.”

Since Crimea became part of the territories of Russia, sanctions were imposed three times. The first set of sanctions was imposed by the Ministry of Finance of President Obama. These sanctions have affected those citizens of Ukraine and Russia, one way or another were connected with the vote on secession and annexation of Crimea, as well as some Russian companies and banks. Later, in the summer of 2014, the US and the European Commission has imposed sanctions against all major Russian banks, and also against oil and gas companies, that is, against several sectors of the Russian economy. Finally, shortly before the resignation of Obama imposed sanctions against several Russians and several companies specializing in cyber security, in connection with the alleged hacking campaign of Russia, which was stolen and published emails of Hillary Clinton and the head of its election headquarters of the Podestà John (John Podesta).

Thursday, February 2, the US government has made some changes to the sanctions Obama imposed in connection with cyber attacks Russia. President trump could do the same with sanctions against certain sectors of the Russian economy. But comments Hayley say that the question of cancellation less significant sanctions imposed in connection with the annexation of Crimea had not yet been discussed.

The validity of sectoral sanctions against Russia due to expire in December 2017.

“Comments Hayley not dealt with the scale of sanctions, the abolition of which all are said of Joseph, Diane (Joseph Dayan), head of global markets at BCS Financial Group in London. — She put it very clearly”.

Sectoral sanctions touched upon the most influential of the oligarchs and the most influential companies of Russia, the savings of the company “Rosneft”, which is managed by associate of Vladimir Putin, Igor Sechin, who is sometimes called the Darth Vader. The lifting of these sanctions, likely to entail the abolition of the counter-sanctions that Russia imposed against European agriculture.

The fate of sanctions depends on the Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement signed last year in Minsk, capital of Belarus. Judging by the resurgence of fighting in Eastern Ukraine, the peace agreement does not work.

The Minsk agreement calls for a ceasefire in the Eastern regions of Ukraine, near the border with Russia. Donetsk and Lugansk regions became centers of resistance to the Kiev government. Many of the militants are ethnic Russian. They have the full support of the Russian government, including military support, despite the fact that at first Putin denied it.

At the moment, the Donetsk considers itself an Autonomous Republic. There is a population more likely to use rubles, not USD. The Minsk agreement also requires that in those areas, elections were held for the new leadership, however, Kiev is afraid that voters will insist on greater autonomy. Once Crimea was an Autonomous area within Ukraine, and now he was in the hands of Russia. The extension of autonomy to the Eastern regions, most likely contrary to the interests of the Central government in Kiev. This tug of war can jeopardize the Minsk agreement.

Despite all this, trump may cancel the sanctions, regardless of the fulfillment of the conditions of the Minsk agreement.

In addition, the President of trump has friends in Ukraine. Two years ago, the oligarch Viktor Pinchuk invited trump to speak at its conference in Kiev. Pinchuk recently published in the Wall Street Journal article in which he stressed that the Kiev government is not necessary to use Crimea as a bargaining chip, and perhaps even necessary to say goodbye to him forever is a pretty unpopular point of view on Ukraine. Later he renounced these remarks, saying that the Crimea belongs to Ukraine.

Sectoral sanctions are a major stumbling block for many investment companies pay their own views on Russia. Last week Gerardo Rodriguez (Gerardo Rodriguez), the Fund Manager of BlackRock stated that they raise the rating on Russian shares to “above market”.

“Regardless of your personal relationship to the President, trump has been a boon for investors, working with Russia, — said Diane. — Nobody was counting on his victory, for Russia the consequences of the arrival of the trump in the White house is quite obvious. The arrival of trump will have a positive impact on sectoral sanctions. In General, in this matter the market is wrong.”