In the beginning of this year, it seemed that no one may challenge Lukashenka in the Belarusian political arena. As stressed by the well-known Russian economist and liberal thinker Vladislav Inozemtsev, “the majority of Belarusians were convinced that their authoritarian dad again easily win the election and become the head of this Eastern European state for the sixth time”.
While its help Lukashenka was rendered and the Russian President himself has limited his policies and the continued desire to create a real unified state of Russia and Belarus, which could lead just Vladimir Putin. When you look at Russian integration, but rather the occupant of the hidden aspirations and how strongly they are opposed to Lukashenko, silent even to his domestic opponents.
Another color revolution?
But everything changed coronavirus and no wonder Lukashenka’s decision to ignore the pandemic in Belarus. The actions of other countries in the fight against the pandemic he called “psychosis” and constantly lied about the progress of the epidemic in Belarus and the number of victims. Therefore the people about which he likes to say, finally turned against him.
Part of the popularity of Lukashenka has lost because he insisted on holding the celebrations in honor of Victory Day on may ninth, although it did not dare even mentioned Putin. The worst thing for Lukashenko is that he lost the vote on the periphery that have traditionally supported him.
Lukashenko’s rating dropped incredibly: public opinion polls conducted in late may, shortly after the military parade in Minsk, showed that Lukashenko is supported by only three to six percent of the electorate (hence the ridiculous nickname Sasha three percent). While its main competitors are gaining the trust of voters: Svetlana Tikhanovski supported by 12%, and the former regime of banker Victor Babariko — more than 50%. By the way, the Belarusian KGB arrested over alleged financial fraud, but on 30 June the Central election Commission officially gave the go-ahead to participate in elections Tikhanovski and Babariko.
As suggested already quoted Vladislav Inozemtsev, if Lukashenko, so to speak, will win these two competitors, then almost certainly this will lead to yet another color revolution in Eastern Europe”. But what will be its result, is now unclear, because Lukashenko has always acted, and will act as a dictator, and he will try to suppress such a color experiment violence.
But if in August in Belarus after the presidential elections will win the Ukrainian version, it will cause a severe blow to Putin’s Russian monolith, which has only recently cemented a dubious vote on the amendments to the Constitution.