The process went: Nazarbayev decides how to share power

Wednesday afternoon, January 25, the Kazakhstan national TV channels immediately changed the broadcasting schedule, as the country’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev decided to make a special appeal. Tonight within ten minutes he outlined the programme of change in the system of public administration and reported making it to national discussion. The essence of the constitutional reform, according to the head of state, is to transfer a considerable part of powers and responsibilities from the President to the government and Parliament.

The transit started and is painful

Speech Nazarbayev confirmed the arguments of those observers who were confident that Astana are looking for the most painless for the ruling elite option transfer of power. This search has accelerated the demise of the Uzbek President Islam Karimov, the then 76-year-old Nursultan Nazarbayev remains the only post-Soviet leader of the former Soviet republics, still retains the power. Feeling that its transit is painful, is magnified by a series of resignations and arrests of influential figures of Kazakh politics.

At the end of December 2016 was arrested the former Chairman of the national security Committee (KNB) of Kazakhstan, the Nartay Dutbayev, in mid-January, Deputy head of the presidential administration (AP) Baglan Mailybaev, a few days earlier, Minister of economic development Kaunda Bishimbayev. In early January of 2017 retired Ambassador of Kazakhstan in three Balkan countries, in the past the head of the presidential administration Aslan Musin.

“The transit authority, which for so long talking to the Democrats, and secretly think the bureaucrats has undoubtedly begun. The President is a public confirmation of this fact. Against this background, the arrests, like other types discredit clans with each other will continue. I think that there is dirt at all. The only point in time of its publicity. Scorpions in a jar eat each other” — in an interview with DW commented on the events opposition politician from Alma-ATA Amirzhan Kosanov.

Azerbaijani and Kazakh model

Chief editor of “Novaya Gazeta — Kazakhstan” Alexander Krasner notes that the country has long been talk that will be used by the Azerbaijani model of transfer of power by inheritance. According to him, it is possible to achieve this understanding among the elites failed. And then came the idea to balance the warring clans, dividing between them the part of presidential powers, not to offend anyone.

“Established a working group under the leadership of the current head of the presidential administration Adilbek Dzhaksybekov, and she strengthened up Marat Tazhin, who previously held many high posts, and now seemingly reduced to the position of the arrested Mailybaeva. It looks very democratic — the President moves toward a parliamentary Republic. Under the carpet and the struggle for power between groups has already begun,” — says the source DW.

Amirzhan Kosanov does not see the recent arrests of a single line. “Yes, before the beginning of operation “successor”, when should be resolved the question of who will stand at the helm of Kazakhstan in postservice period, sharp attacks of the clans against each other is quite natural. But given the fact that around the President, several interest groups with billions of dollars in resources and claims to higher authority, such arrest has been haphazard. I have a feeling that the country now there is no single center of political decision-making,” said Kosanov.

In turn, Alexander Krasner in the context of the transit authority allocates arrest Mailybaeva. “He is charged with neither more nor less disclosing state secrets. My sources in the PA claim that he had been allowed to certain classified topics. In particular, to a variety of large transactions, including the oil fields. As you can tell from media reports, he allegedly disinterested secrets with Russia”, — said Krasner.

“Conspiracy theory”

However, he acknowledged that there is another version that must be taken into account: that Mailybaev was in a group that deliberately undermine the situation in the country with the aim of providing a major impact on the power or master it.

“A well-known journalist, Guljan Yergaliyeva is associated with the land protests of the spring of 2016, which many believe was provoked to exert pressure on President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s influential in Western Kazakhstan by a group of officials and oligarchs. And Islamists attack in Aktobe in June 2016, may be inspired by the same group and with the same objective,” added Alexander Krasner.

And recalled that during the land protests in Alma-ATA, many have noticed how the TV channel “ORT-Eurasia”, curated by the AP, released a provocative stories about the alleged transfer of money to organize protests, the caches of weapons to the protesters.

“These stories greatly escalate the situation. There are unverified information that it put the hand directly to Mailybaev responsible AP for ideological work. But remember that he worked in AP under the direct leadership of Aslan Musin, one of the informal leaders of the Western elites, who fell into disgrace and was sent into honourable exile as the Ambassador to the Balkans after unrest in December 2011 in Western Kazakhstan. And now, the next day after Musin 63 years, the President sent him to a pension, — says the chief editor of “Novaya Gazeta — Kazakhstan”.

Such political heavyweights as Musin points Alexander Krasner, before the President retired not sent. That is, the sequence of events fired Musin, Mailybaev set — backs, according to Krasner, the assumption that a serious buildup of the situation took place and took place from this centre

Confrontation in Astana

That and in the center of Astana, a struggle between influential groups, according to letters posted on Facebook by Aisultan Nazarbayev, grandson of the President. In them, he not only fully endorsed the arrests of high-ranking officials, but these names unfair “agashek” (person holding the highest position in the informal hierarchy — approx. ed.), still retains influence on the President. Including the above mentioned head up Djaksibekov.

The grandson of the President expressed the suspicion that these people involved in corruption, but did not provide specific evidence. Calling them names, Aysultan Nazarbayev mentioned the “dark forces” that are trying to run the country, and whose era is coming to an end. “However, none of the named executives have not publicly responded to the two letters of the grandson of the President, despite the law on civil service, which requires them to apply in such cases a lawsuit on protection of honor and dignity,” he told DW Alexander Krasner.

In turn, an informed source in Astana DW on condition of anonymity, suggested that these emotional speeches of Aisultan Nazarbayev is “family” of the President, joined forces against those officials who have influence on the President and has authority among the population. This, according to the source, explains the silence of those individuals who attacked Aysultan Nazarbayev, and the fact that the printing press “the letters of the grandson” prefers to leave without comment.