Disputes between meteorologists practitioners, scientists, climatologists and the national forecasters about whether we can accurately predict the weather a year in advance, lasted more than a decade. Different point of view. So, in Soviet times, one of the leaders of the USSR hydrometeorological with aplomb, said: “the Weather is chaos. And as for the year ahead to predict the chaos?” Since then, the opinion of meteorologists has changed, but not dramatically: Ukrgidromettsentr can only say about the General weather trends in the coming year. They are based of statistical data, which is already 136 years to accumulate the Central geophysical Observatory of Ukraine. It follows that with each passing decade, winters have become warmer and summers are longer. A different view enthusiasts populists, who for many years studying old or develop their own methods of predictions, refuting, in their opinion, the theory of stable warming. Finally, fundamental science tells about a long-term circulation patterns (circular motions) polar air masses from high latitudes to low, and Vice versa. Because of these circulations alternate cold and warm periods. We are going to have cold years.
CHIEF FORECASTER AND SCIENCE. “Just to say that in the winter, and in summer the average temperature is expected to be above the norm, as the trend toward overall warming continues. But this winter will be fierce frosts and thaws, and in summer, as usual, and the heat, and the coolness of the rains, the exact date of which cannot be predicted”, — shared with us a forecast for 2017, the head Ukrgidromettsentra Nicholas Kulbida. On temperature “swings” during the year, says head of the Department of climate research and long-term weather forecasts by the meteorological research Institute of Netacademy Professor Wazir Martazinova. “Winter will be unstable. There are just a 20-25 frost-free days, — Martazinova noted. At the end of January 2017 would be -10, 10-11 February to -14, and this is the last days of winter. Then begins the spring.”
POPULISTS. The most detailed national forecasts of weather forecasters: they give the calculations of the weather by day, predict rain and the heat, consider the average daily temperature. In five years, publications such predictions from the late Valery Nekrasov from the Dnieper, Vladimir the Fox from Volhynia, which, alas, is no longer on calculations of weather, and the current national forecaster Leonid Gorban — “Today” has seen the accuracy of their predictions is very high. Gorban assesses the probability of their forecasts for the whole of Ukraine is 75%, which is close to the truth. “More precisely, it is hardly possible to give the calculations for the whole country, because different regions: lowland, mountain, coastal and continental. And the weather everywhere is a little different. But for some areas the accuracy of my calculations up to 95%”, — says Gorban. Last year, he correctly predicted a late spring, cool summer, early autumn with almost no Indian summer, frost and snow in November and December is colder than usual. “Today” publishes a new forecast from Leonid Gorban for 2017 (see infographic). For 7-year cycle of the planets Bryusov calendar (“Today” in detail wrote about it January 15, 2016), which the driver uses in its calculations, it’s the year of the Sun. “Winter in the year of the Sun cold and snowy, spring is cold in the beginning, there are frosts up to 20-25 March, April, cold and dry with strong winds, drought in may — said its forecast for Gorban. Summer first is dry and hot in July, heavy rains, August is cool. Autumn is warm with abundant rainfall, from mid-November light frosts and snow.”
HARVEST: WITHOUT SPRING, BUT WITH CORN
Leonid Gorban argues that years of the Sun (1996, 2003, 2010, 2017 and on) — is usually lean. “Worse than them only years mercury (1998, 2005, 2012, 2019…). “Reasons for low yield in 2017, a few, — says Gorban. First: this year’s winter has been delayed for March and half of April, so the time of sowing of spring crops and row crops (corn, sunflower) are transferred. In may, the first day comes the heat, with no rain for almost the whole of may and the first half of June, which inhibits the growth of plants. In July will go good rains, but it’s too late. In addition, due to strong winds and storms in many areas will undergo the lodging of wheat, when the harvest will begin. August is cool with moderate rainfall, but rainfall will only benefit the sunflower and corn, which will begin to actively grow. To delay their cleaning is impossible, because in October in the first half is expected to damp, and collect a good harvest will not succeed. But in September, the ground will be wet, and sowing of winter crops will be normal”.
“Today” to check how the word Gorban confirmed by the statistics. As it turned out, the pattern is. Thus, according to the state service statistics, in 1995, the Ukrainian agrarians harvested 33.9 million tons of grain in 1996 (year of the Sun) — a total of 24.5 million tons, in the following 1997 (the year of the moon) again, the increase to 35.5 million tonnes, in 1998 (the year of mercury is bad) is just 26.5 million tons! It was the same in the next 7-year period, which peaked in 2000 years: 2003-th year, which was ruled by the Sun, was twice lower grain yield (20.2 million tons) compared to previous and following years. In 2010, the year the picture was better — the crop amounted to 39.2 million tons, but less than the year before and a year later (46 and 56 million tons).
Agricultural market experts agree that weather has a serious impact on the harvest volumes, but argued that in any event hunger does not threaten Ukraine. “If weather conditions in spring and summer will be the same as the national forecaster predicts, they can seriously reduce the yield of grain, — explained the analyst of consulting company “ProAgro” Yaroslav Levitskiy. — First of all, this applies to spring crops, which are sown in the spring. But in winter conditions, albeit cold, but snowy winters will take the cold well. Winter we have a lot more than spring: about 5 million ha of wheat and 1 million ha of barley against appropriately 0.1 million hectares and 2.5 million hectares. While we have grown mostly for forage barley, only a small part of it — the food and brewing quality”. According to Levitsky, the annual consumption of grain in Ukraine, about 25 million tons, of which food needs of up to 6 million tons, so even with a low yield of 14-15 t/ha (this is twice lower than last year) collected is more than enough. But may increase the price of grain. So a ton of wheat in the lean 2012 in the domestic market was worth in dollar terms $280-300/ton, and in the last three harvest season the price ranges from $150-170/t
WEATHER RECORDS OF UKRAINE
With the help of experts from the Department of climatology of the Central geophysical Observatory of Ministry of emergencies of Ukraine “Today” to find out in what places and in what year recorded climatic records of Ukraine, and compared them with the world.
Maximum heat was recorded on 20 July 2007, at Voznesensk of the Nikolaev area — +41,3 °C. But it is nothing compared to the heat in Libya — El-Aziz, it reached +57,8 °C in September 1922.
But the strongest frost in -41,9 °C in Ukraine happened on 8 Feb 1935 in Lugansk. World record — 89,2 degrees below zero at the station “Vostok” in Antarctica in 1983.
Most snow — 3.5 m — day March 25, 2006 in the Carpathian mountains, but the snow in 4.8 m on mount Shasta in California (February 1959) they have fallen short.
The strong wind in our country blew 24 December 1947 on the AI-Petri — 180 km/h against 407 km/h on barrow island in Australia in 1996.
WEATHERMAN-HONEY
Leonid Gorban jokingly said that to prepare weather forecasts, it helps pet cat: handsome cat with an unusual nickname Sunshine. “When I’m working, the Sun is sitting on the table and closely observes, — said Gorban. — Once I did the calculations, left them on the table and left. When I came back, was horrified to find that the Sun they are, sorry, were described. Started a remodel and found in numbers blunder! If not for the cat, the prediction would have been wrong. Cat still leaves methyl — and every time after that he discovered the mistake! A mystery”. But Nikolai Kulbida, who at the cottage is also pet cats, told us that in the preparation of forecasts with animals is not advised.
“Validate” calculations.
