In the next four years the governments of the world will have to learn to cooperate with the President of the United States Donald trump. Then you can read about what they hope and what to fear.
May and a trump — the odd couple
The British government waited for the inauguration of Donald trump in an almost nervous excitement. Given Brakcet, the British are in need of any support and any alliances that can get, and the fact that trump many times confessed his love to the UK and praised Brakcet as part of that movement which brought to power himself, attracted a lot of attention.
Trump has promised to quickly sign the trade agreement and to continue the “special friendship” between the two countries. The former leader of the independence Party of the United Kingdom Nigel Faraj became the first foreign politician, who met with trump after the election. Not to say that the British government has come in delight, but Faraj British, and he defended British interests. Since then, and closest advisers of the Prime Minister Theresa may, and the Minister of foreign Affairs Boris Johnson visited the United States to prepare for a meeting with trump and may, which, according to the British, could take place next month.
Some suggest that this Alliance could become quite special. Despite Brakcet, the British government largely consists of the political elite, similar to that which is being attacked by trump in the US. Trump promises to protect jobs and the domestic market in the United States. Mei says about turning Britain into a beacon of international trade. During the election campaign trump sarcastically criticized the situation in the UK where Mei was then the Minister of internal Affairs. May and Johnson, and other Ministers, in a very scornful terms talked about the fact that trump is unfit to be President. Trump reaches out to Russia, while the Mae and the British are at the forefront of the hard line of the West towards Russia. This couple seems very strange, but while Mei and the trump promise each other to become in politics a couple.
Chinese policy, which “bite”
There is a Chinese proverb: the dog that does not bite. In Ziguangge, the residence of the Chinese leadership probably expected that Donald trump will be less to criticize China if it manages to win the presidential election. So in American politics has happened before. But this has not happened yet.
Beijing is not particularly surprised by what trump advocates for stronger and protectionist trade policies. And from the point of view of China, which can take on the role of the driving force of trade agreements in Asia and the Pacific, this can be seen not only something negative. But the appointment of trump economist Peter Navarro chief of the newly established National trade Council, does not promise the Americans anything good. He, in particular, is the author of “Death of China” (“Death by China”), which States that China is the root of all evils in the United States. And the candidates for the posts of Minister of trade and foreign Affairs had to be noted. Last recently said that China should not be given access to the Islands, artificially created in the South China sea since it increased military dominance of China in the sea.
But the most closely of the Communist party of China oversees Taiwan. Trump repeatedly said that he does not think that the so-called policy of “one China” is something sacred. This can be negotiated, as it’s called. Beijing rejects it entirely. We believe that Taiwan is part of China, and this view is the basis of all diplomatic relations with the people’s Republic of China.
Berlin will protect against trump free trade and the EU
“I believe that we Europeans, in our own hands” — said recently, Angela Merkel in an interview with Bild. So she reacted that trump recently described many criticized the policy of the Chancellor in relation to the refugees as “a catastrophic mistake”.
So far the response from Berlin is moderate and expectant, but Merkel and her Ministers are very concerned about transatlantic relations and European security architecture. In Berlin especially skeptical of protectionist trade policies trump. Recently, the future President took a swing at German automakers such as BMW, which he threatened the total fees, if they will put car factories in the United States and Mexico.
Merkel believes that free trade is crucial for both European and American security and well-being, she has called on German companies to remain patient and trust in the transatlantic free trade.
With regard to the interests of Europe in the field of security policy, Berlin, who played a decisive role in the imposition of sanctions against the Kremlin after the annexation of Crimea, is very sceptical about the alleged close ties trump with Russia.
Statement trump that of the EU — the engine of Germany has caused shock and indignation in Berlin. After Breccia Germany is particularly concerned about preserving the unity of the Union, which trump is challenging. While Merkel is a pragmatic wait-and-see attitude toward Washington. “I’ll wait until the American President takes office, and then we will continue to work with him on all levels and see what arrangements we can make,” said the Chancellor.
Russia is ready to negotiate with trump
After the first reaction of Moscow after the victory of Donald trump in the election, which was characterized by euphoria in Russia looked thoughtful. The trump candidates for the posts of defense Minister and Secretary of state during the hearings in the Senate advocated a hard line against Russia. However, new revelations of possible aggravating the situation of relations between advisers trump and Russia increase pressure on trump: he must show that won’t show sentimentality in relations with Moscow.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin sees some opportunities in the transition from hated in Moscow of Barack Obama. Russian experts point to Syria as the most likely center for a possible rapprochement. One possibility is a loose coordination of military actions against armed Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq, while the US and Russia still have very different opinions about which groups pose the greatest threat. The future course of the U.S. government towards Ukraine, where Russia supports the struggle for Pro-Russian rebels fight against Ukrainian government forces, is less clear. Trump previously played the opportunity to lift the sanctions against Russia, but they are formally attached to the parties ‘ adherence to the so-called Minsk agreements. Every step in this direction will therefore assume a giant leap in the long and disappointing peace talks between the warring parties.
The most optimistic Russian experts hope that trump will usher in an isolationist course, which in the future will make Russia’s possible re-inclusion of former Soviet republics, especially Ukraine, in the sphere of Russian interests.
Trump has raised concerns in Brussels
In the capital of the EU and NATO Brussels, the positive expectations associated with Donald trump, very little. Expectations are associated primarily with the fact that, despite his statements about the EU, NATO, Russia, free trade and climate he really doesn’t think so.
Yes, when trump was elected, in Brussels really felt a strong shock, but in the first weeks of the majority in Brussels tried to drown his fears, because often what was said during the election campaign, and what will be in fact two big differences. But for some of the Central issues trump maintains consistency in their criticisms of the EU and NATO, this applies to a more conciliatory tone toward Russia.
This particularly applies to statements this week about Breccia as a “wise choice British”, because the EU is “a means to achieve the interests of Germany”, and on NATO, which is “outdated” because the defense Alliance is not enough focus on the fight against terror, caused the amazement of the foreign Ministers of the big EU countries, came together in the beginning of this week.
From the EU point of view, trump has planted doubt in the fundamental view that the preservation of Western unity and upholding its values is crucial for world stability.
It remains to hope that the position and many smart people in the American administration and the army, which remain in their places, will be able to convince trump that of preserving the unity of the Western world, in the form in which we know it is in the interest of the United States. As for the new Ministers, many in the EU institutions and the headquarters of NATO, it is reassuring that the Minister of defence will be James Mattis, a big supporter of NATO, moreover critical towards President of Russia Putin.
But while the concern overshadows expectations of this kind.
In Christiansborg hope for the best
Let us say at once: in Danish politics, or the head of government were few who hoped that Donald trump would become the new President of the United States. On the contrary, they longed for the opposite.
His style and his statements trump represents the uncertainty and unpredictability at a time when the government would like a completely different — especially if it concerns one of the most important allies of Denmark.
Danish policy slightly shake my head, when trump talks about building a wall on the border with Mexico, but the Danish concern is not caused by these statements. Cause of concern — his tough statements on NATO, in which he raised doubts about the distance range of the so-called musketeer oath — that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all of NATO if European Nations — such as Denmark — will not increase their military spending.
As a result, Denmark will spend more money on the armed forces. But the situation is complicated — we are talking about very large sums of money, and the money will have to come from somewhere. Understand whether it is the Danes?
However, concern and skepticism statements trump on free trade. Denmark is very dependent on exports, including to the USA, so a shift to more protectionist measures will have consequences for the Danish economy.
But he’s still the leader of the free world. And the Danish government don’t have to do anything other than hope for the best. And also try to chart a more successful course in relations with the new President.