At the end of the First world war in Vienna, used to say that “the situation was desperate, but not hopeless.” The consensus reached in Berlin, suggested that the perpetrators will be shot, unless you prefer to settle scores with life. With regard to the economic situation, the majority thought that heavy, but after a few years will improve, as is always the case after the war. Currently, when since that time has passed for a hundred years, the situation became even more complicated. In the card deck a lot of jokers.
As a consequence, it is almost impossible to make an accurate prediction. Over whether the European era of history? It lasted about a thousand years, and the course of history shows that such times don’t last forever. But what era will come back? It is hoped that after some interval the economic situation improves, as it was throughout history. And yet, who will replace the Europe and the West in General as the new head of power?
All signs point to the fact that two world wars had weakened the Old world to such an extent that full recovery is nearly impossible. I predicted the sunset and the end of Europe for twenty years now, I’ve been called a pessimist. Lately, pessimism has intensified. Some believe in the possibility of recovery, but consider the possible alternatives.
Entering the era of “trump”, the US is unlikely to cope with the role of world leader. In fact, it takes a lot of time to recover from present and future troubles. Undoubtedly, China has achieved considerable success in the economic field, but in front of it are and great difficulties. Many believe that economic growth not be sustained at the current level in the coming years he will slow down. China’s economic expansion in different directions in Asia and also in Australia and even in Africa are of serious concern to his closest neighbors, who already feel threatened and start thinking about creating an anti-China coalition. Has become a historical pattern that each weakening the power comes to the opposition that is gaining strength.
As for Russia, during the reign of Putin, it is well developed, primarily due to the weakness of the West, but lost half of its territory (almost half of the population). Russia wants to restore its superpower status. New Russia does not want to accept as members the former Soviet Central Asian republics. The Kremlin has sufficient experience in this matter, which may force him to make a considerable economic effort that he does not want to accept. Russia wants to maintain its influence in Central Asia, not uniting geographically with its republics.
Russia wants to restore its influence in the Baltic States, but at the moment nothing indicates that it intends to re-attach the three Baltic republics. They entered the sphere of Russian interests from the time of Peter I, open this “window to Europe”.
Russia does not want a strong and United Europe, and recent developments, in particular Brakcet confirm a negative attitude to European unity. But, just as in Asia react to the strengthening of China, any move by Russia will almost automatically be the appropriate response. NATO weakened for thirty years, but this position may lead to its consolidation.
Another Joker is the revival of Islam in the political arena. So far, he was focused on the middle East and North Africa, but its ambitions are growing and already spreading, for example, in South East Asia and Africa.
The leading role of Russia approved slowly, so as not to cause a political reaction of the Islamists in the Caucasus and in China, but the growth of local radical Islamists appear to be and that they receive assistance from their co-religionists in the middle East seems inevitable. Areas that fall under political and economic control of Islamic radicals, will continue to play a destabilizing role. And that factor should be borne in mind.
What can you say about other forces that are trying to strengthen their power and influence? India remains a large part of the way, and political Islam should put its own house in order. Over the next 50-80 years Africa, apparently, is the most populous continent, but because of its economic and political weakness, this circumstance will become more of a burden than a valuable asset.
In light of the foregoing, the period between the end of the Second world war, held under the sign of the growing power of the United States, came to its end. During the cold war, the world has witnessed some stability, but this period is over.
What can you expect? This question impossible to answer. Trump chose isolationism. Russia again seeks to become a great power. And China wants to transform its economic power into political power.
What to do in these circumstances is poor in Europe? Some European leaders are absolutely easy to isolationism, when their influence will spread further state boundaries. However, their geopolitical situation is not the same as in Latin America. Europe is worried about its security and freedom and peace to look to outside pressure.
Tennyson (Tennyson) saw this problem and wrote in this context two hundred years ago: “Better fifty years of domination of Europe than the long-term pressure from China.” In conclusion, we can say that the world is in a state of relative peace and quiet, typical of the past.
