An unexpected statement by the NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov, who proposed to move from the ATO to the “new format of the protection of the country”, and at the same time introduced the bill “On restoration of state sovereignty of Ukraine on the temporarily occupied territory” was very ambiguous regarded the Ukrainians are divided in their assessments of the intentions of the government. Some have decided that it is finally decided under the pretext to officially curtail the protracted anti-terrorist operation. Others understood it, on the contrary, as the intention to move to a long-awaited more action and the real liberation of Donbass. Still others, made wise by bitter experience, concluded that the government is once again pulling some kind of Scam.
Positional impasse
In the spring of 2015, the situation on the “Western front” came in a positional stalemate — exactly the same as it happened hundred years ago on the battlefields of the First World. It is worth noting that then causes the position of the impasse was somewhat different than that explained in the history books. Of course, machine guns and rapid-fire guns forced the parties to engage in the fortification, however a change of tactics with a maneuverable trench has not changed the basic strategy of the war.
The impasse was not that the French, Germans and Russians destroy each other hundreds of thousands on a narrow strip of land, and not during agile “dancing” armies, as in the days of Napoleon. The impasse was that these battles had no result: the enemy came reinforcements, he reflects all attacks, and the parties remained at his. The deadlock of the army is not output even technological re-equipment: introduced in 1916, tanks had on the course of the war, there was no significant result. And only in the spring of 1918 the war came to a standstill on the side of the Entente in fighting came 1.2 million American soldiers, Germany had exhausted its resources. The parity of forces was broken, and that has brought the war out of the impasse. Finally Germany and its ally Austria-Hungary finished off arranged by the social Democrats and the socialist revolution.
Current position stalled ATO also emerged in the course of the existing parity of forces. However, its peculiarity is that it has two levels, and in the second it forces not involved in the conflict, and even more than that, it’s political weight and economic power of the parties are not directly involved in the war.
Judge for yourself: APU would have long since unrolled to pus few of the militants-separatists, if those don’t provide full military support to Russia. In August of 2014 from the Russian territory by moving along the edge of the Mat hitting artillery, and then went into battle shaped Moscow “reserves”. However, the Russian military support for the separatists is limited in scope: they suffice for an active defence of Donetsk and Lugansk, but not for the promised “attack on Kyiv”.
What is the reason for this restriction? Maybe they applied the terms “hybrid war”: Russia can’t just take and enter into battle under the banner of “new Russia” its brigade and division, it is limited to the same military aid “volunteers and professionals”, which at the time of the USSR provided Spain, Korea and Vietnam. Maybe the Kremlin originally planned this local conflict is not beyond the Donbass. In any case, Moscow is not going to break the parity of forces at this level (ATO).
Remember what happened in the beginning of 2015, militants have decided that Russia’s support will be mandatory and unlimited, and decided to start to take debaltseve. Moreover, on their own, they say, we start, and Russia will support! The city was taken, incurring huge losses (team Brain has not recovered after the massacre), but could not move, because Russia refused to support this adventure. Since then, the separatists sitting in their trenches quietly and, as they say, do not rock the boat in any offensive. However, APU does not undertake offensive operations (skirmish level, platoon-the company behind “promos” does not count), knowing that in this case Russia will immediately come to the aid of their “wards”.
The second level of conflict also came to a kind of a positional impasse, it is the level of interstate relations. Because of the intricacies of politics, Ukraine can’t fight Russia directly in the Donbas this occurs indirectly, in the conflict with separatists (although there every second action movie with a Russian passport), but will move to liberate the Crimea or even more to hit the aggressor directly in the direction of Moscow, Kiev small intestine. Don’t laugh, it’s really subtle: the military resources of Ukraine at times less, and they can not be strengthened even by the acquisition of modern weapons (like the coveted “javelin”). To more or less match the parity with Russia is possible only tripled the population and the economy (at least).
However, in its turn, Russia cannot use its superiority over Ukraine to one powerful blitzkrieg to force her to surrender — that is consent to give up the Crimea, Donbass, and maybe something else. Because Ukraine is the West (EU and US), which is the power of its political and economic influence keeps the Kremlin’s ambitions “to return to Ukraine”. At the same time a condition for EU aid to Kiev is refraining from military initiatives, the same policy, it seems, adheres to the new administration of the White House. And that forms a second level of positional impasse, when neither Ukraine nor Russia can’t even begin large-scale hostilities.
This impasse has two options. The first is to sit down at the negotiating table to negotiate and end the conflict. However, the Kremlin is unlikely to agree in good time to leave the Donbass and the Crimea back to Kiev also do not want to give Moscow the Ukrainian territory even at the cost of peace. The second is to continue sitting in the trenches and wait for the violation of parity of forces. Ukraine to expect that it will gain a powerful military ally in this conflict, or revolution in Russia. Well, Russia expect Ukraine to turn its political defenders, or that it will cover the chaos of new Maidan.
The last refuge of scoundrels
As you can see, sitting in Kiev in power politicians and generals are not idiots, which they are sometimes portrayed by critics. And that they are earnestly waiting for the collapse of Russia, not talking about their stupidity, but rather on the correct understanding of the situation: this is the only way out of this positional impasse. Just the chance of such events is still low, despite worsening relations between the Russian authorities and opposition-minded citizens. In addition, not even the fact that the Moscow protests may weaken Russia or bring her to collapse. However, again, the Ukrainian “hawks of war” wait for nothing, because the option of being drawn into a greater Russia some powers of the scale at least Turkey looks generally fantastic. So they are waiting, simultaneously pursuing political self-gratification using a self-concocted articles on “the growing crisis in Russia.”
But hung, a dead-end character of the Donbass war is a consequence not only the above-mentioned objective reasons. Infinite anti-terrorist operation is beneficial to the majority of post-Maidan political forces because it gives them unlimited carte Blanche for any actions and stupidity, disguised under the slogans of patriotism and justify statements about the threat to national interests.
What, for example, would be without her patriots and national-radicals, which get in movement and groupings (including the frankly criminal), and expressing its some sacred right and duty, satisfied shaped chaos — right in front of timidly standing at the side of the police? Yes none, Gopnik-aunts, whom former police ohazhivat sticks and stuffed in a “funnel”. And now they decide who can win elections, who can perform live who can build up the city, they protect the smuggling and production of amber, they capture the enterprise and block the railway. Not surprisingly, now dreaming of loud fame and quick money the youth tends to “patriots” — as well as before she wanted to go to “teams”.
As for the current ruling party (the President and members of the parliamentary coalition), they have created an atmosphere of “belligerent power” allows them not to be afraid of a third Maidan (and in General popular discontent), and easy to carry out any economic, structural and political reforms. To Jack up utility rates, make the medicine fee, to prohibit the Russian language — all the things I was afraid of the previous regimes, the current makes without any attempt to justify to the voters.
However, popular discontent — an empty noise without the unifying and guiding role of the opposition. And that’s just a strong opposition in the Ukraine since February 2014. The party of Regions, which came to power on a wave of dissatisfaction with the “orange” regime not only collapsed after the second Maidan, but lost the electorate in Crimea and Donetsk. So that the current Opposition bloc will be in opposition forever, because he simply did not have enough votes to win elections. And as it is not blasphemous, but post-Maidan parties is advantageous that the electorate of the Crimea and half of Donbass was eliminated from the political life of Ukraine. Because the game came out a voters the age-old political opponents of the national-patriots.
That’s why they not only did not rush to reclaim lost territory of Ukraine, but always emphasize that these regions will not be able to prevent the Ukrainian elections, they said that they are infected with alien ideas. The fear that residents of Luhansk and Donetsk vote for the “opposition bloc” or even for some Pro-Russian political forces, became one of the main reasons of braking of the national-patriots of the implementation of the Minsk world. After all, just a point about the elections and became the most controversial! Equally, it is not necessary and the main ruling party even though her policies just to pose as “patriots”, but they also do not want a repeat of 2010, when the government lost not only the President but also the whole layer of the ruling elite.
There is another reason. Now the government cleverly took the initiative of national-radicals in the politics of militant patriotism, in nationalism (or rather, anti-communism and Russophobia), a comic blockades. But what slogans will raise the radicals, if the war is over? And suddenly oligarchies? But then the power is unlikely to be able to catch them the initiative. Imagine Peter, denouncing from the rostrum of the Ukrainian oligarchy?!
Therefore, continuation of the current situation, when across the country, created the appearance of “Patriotic war” and to fight for real and the risk is not necessary, all these politicians are very profitable. Equally beneficial to all who for three years are fed up with the topic of the ATO: innumerable commanders, wealthy volunteers enjoying their impunity and permissiveness, “veterans” and “patriots” who found a job in the propaganda organs of the journalists and bloggers.
The restart project
However, in Ukraine there are two groups of people who are not satisfied with this protracted pseudovina where without any sense and meaning are dying every month dozens of soldiers and civilians. Both groups want a speedy conclusion, but in different ways.
The first is the ardent proponents of blitzkrieg, considering that APU for a long time have accumulated the necessary power for quick capture of Donetsk and Lugansk. That an hour after the start of the offensive, Russia will move to Donetsk their reserves, and the next day the West fails Ukraine in his defense, these people do not think. Moreover, many of them believe that Ukraine will be able to reflect even a direct attack of the Russian army from the South and the northeast. Probably with the help of “rabbit fence” Yatsenyuk?
The second is the supporters of early peace “without conditions and indemnities”, it’s just tired of the war in the Donbas and military hysteria in Kiev, people. A lot more of them than supporters of an immediate attack on the Donetsk, but they are passive and completely separated, and Express their opinions in a low voice, cautiously — afraid to go to the SBU or to fall under the hands of “patriots”. So their opinion does not yet have any for the power of no importance, at least to the next election.
The radicals, demanding the immediate resumption of the ATO to the bitter end, far more dangerous to the government than the supporters of the early world. Do not declare them traitors and agents of the Kremlin, they are dispersed with the help of “Patriotic thugs”, because it they are not — and can easily kick your ass to the police, and even arrange third Maidan. And they play on the same electoral field as power — which means that you can take her to vote.
Therefore, the government could indefinitely ignore the silent discontent of opponents of the ATO, but it increasingly difficult to keep the loyalty of the “war hawks”, which is already considered the team President, the government and the parliamentary coalition “zradnikami”. But the government can not meet their demand to come to Donetsk and because he did not want to end the endless war, and because it leads to insurmountable positional impasse. What should I do?
And here appears “bloody pastor”, only recently declaring that the ATO will end with the capture of Moscow, and declares that the Antiterrorist operation have outlived their usefulness and it is time to move to the next phase. And then you receive a bill Bank, which its name expresses itself as the plan for the return of the occupied territories, and even contains such warlike provisions as the concentration of Ukrainian armed forces command in the sole hands of the Guarantor. Like, before the speed of the military decision making was hampered by the bureaucracy of the four branches of law enforcement agencies, and will now create a single headquarters. Why not prepare for the decisive and large-scale war? Many of the “hawks” this is how it is perceived, and the media has appeared to many “expert opinions”, who were planning imminent fall of Donetsk, and maybe Moscow.
However, just in case this bill is full of references to Minsk world — apparently to the West decided that Kiev is really going to go to any active military action. But a careful reading of the bill (the document is hidden from the public, but his pieces has rendered from the “public” of the Verkhovna Rada) can come to the conclusion that at its core, it contains nothing new, except for one thing: the new law will pass under the direct command of the Bank all security agencies (AFU, National guard, special forces SBU). But it is unlikely to storm and clear the Donetsk — probably to prevent a third Maidan in Kiev.
How to understand this? In the eyes of Ukrainians unfolds another Scam: rebranded ATO, the dress hung low-intensity conflict in new packaging with a new name, but with the same content. Oligarchic power can be, she is no stranger to peddle Ukrainians unsold goods under new brands! Meanwhile, the Ukrainians sort themselves out and realize that they once again fooled, it may take 2-3 years, during which the power, you see, have time to get re-elected.
However, this hasty reconstruction of the Ukrainian political supermarket was caused not only by the desire to appease the discontent in the Ukraine. Another important factor is the dissatisfaction of the Ukraine with the West, which is already tired of the outright boycott of the Minsk peace Kiev politicians. And here the official completion of the ATO with the transition to “new forms of protection” can be depicted in two ways. The West will say that the peace-loving Ukraine stops the war and goes to the softer methods of conflict resolution. But Ukrainian patriots officially hinted that it is preparing for a long-awaited offensive. To be two-faced Janus and at the same time to talk about the same thing in totally opposite interpretations of Ukrainian politicians is not the first time!
