Economists expect the appointment of the head of the NBU and explain what is dangerous change of course
One of the accusations against the former head of the national Bank of Ukraine Yakov Smoliy concerned supposedly too strong hryvnia. Explaining his decision to leave the post, Yakov Smoliy said from the parliamentary rostrum that was required of him “dollar 30”. Can such a course become real this year, after the appointment of the new head of the national Bank? The website “Today” has asked about this, economic experts.
First reaction – short
The unexpected resignation of the head of the National Bank of Ukraine Yakov Smoliy caused a shock in the currency market. As soon as the information on the application, the dollar rushed up. If on July 2nd the official rate was 26,77 USD per dollar, then the next day it shot up to 27,18 and stayed at that level all weekend. Monday, however, the panic began to fade. On 7 July, the dollar depreciated by 4 cents (to 27.13 UAH), and the 8th its rate has overcome the psychological line 27 UAH downward – 26,93 UAH. However, further strengthening of the hryvnia was not followed in subsequent days the rate continued to fluctuate in the area of flash memory cards 26,95-26,93 USD per dollar.
According to experts, in the near future a significant weakening of the hryvnia is not expected at least until the new appointment. Moreover, while the NBU is working all the team that worked with Smoliam.
“The surge was temporary. It was a panic reaction of the markets”, – says senior economist of CASE Ukraine, an expert of “the Economic expert of the platform” Vladimir Dubrovsky.
However, if after the new appointment of the NBU will heard statement about new monetary or exchange rate policy, it may again cause a panic reaction in the market.
“If there are strong expectations of future devaluation, they themselves can start the process of devaluation. People may rush to buy dollars and exporters will delay the return of foreign exchange earnings. But in the future, if panic can be backed up with the same issue, also demanded that Smoliy, according to him, it is likely that all will return to normal”, – predicts Vladimir Dubrovsky.
The hryvnia “fall” hard
Experts are unanimous that the economic reasons for the devaluation of the hryvnia and the growth of the dollar today is not.
“Economic reasons for now, no. There is such a situation that the rate should not increase. Because of the quarantine, cheaper imported goods, imports of services. Exports also fell, but to a much lesser extent. Therefore, we have even turned positive balance of foreign trade”, – said Vladimir Dubrovsky.