Analysis: Who will blame the Russians, if the money from oil will be depleted? (SVT, Sweden)

How good — or bad — coming from an economic point of view Affairs, Russia largely depends on oil prices. This country is one of the largest exporters of oil and natural gas, and that very high oil prices in 20 years has turned Russia from the poorest in a fairly prosperous state.

When the New 1999 Vladimir Putin came to power, the oil that is exported to Russia, worth about $ 12 per barrel. A little more than a year before the economy suffered a complete collapse, and Russia was forced to take several billion from the International monetary Fund and the world Bank, to somehow support the public system.

Inflation was 80 percent a year. People’s savings were destroyed, Soviet-era factories were closed one after the other, and salaries and pensions were delayed for many months.

“Drunken President”

Yeah, that’s what democracy and capitalism have given us. Still a drunkard President in the bargain. This was the conclusion of many Russians.

But then came Vladimir Putin and all was well! A strong man who took care that in the country the order came. Besides, he didn’t drink. Salaries and pensions are paid on time. And they rose. But in actual fact it was not the merit of Putin. It was the price of oil. A few years after Putin came to power, oil has risen from $ 12 a barrel to $ 140 with an extra-income countries has increased 10 times.

Did as Norway

Well, what now? In January, Russia received $ 60 per barrel, but now only maybe 25. And the state budget fits, if the price is not less than $ 42 per barrel. During the oil boom, the country has paid its debts and established a good foreign currency reserve, about how Norway. A year or two Russia can survive low oil prices.

Places the responsibility on the local leaders

At least once a week Putin on the television addressing the people. He argues that the spread of the virus under control and promises that soon all will be as before. At the same time, he tries to shift responsibility to local authorities in all Russian regions. But because of the virus, the recession can last for a long time. And then what will happen in Russia?

When the price of oil has grown and the Russians became easier to live, it was a merit of Putin. And if now the standard of living will fall even faster than in recent years, as oil revenues decreased, the blame will also be Putin?