Again 25: bankers calculated how long will fall, the dollar in Ukraine

The hryvnia strengthened to the highest in almost a year and a half of the level is 25.5 UAH/USD. Bankers say this trend until the end of August, but forecast a gradual depreciation of the hryvnia in September and October, writes FinClub.

On Friday, the hryvnia exchange rate on interbank market rose to 25,49 UAH/USD, approaching the indicators of the beginning of February 2016, when the dollar was worth UAH 25,45. In August, the hryvnia has appreciated already at 36 kopecks. and YTD – to UAH 1.2.

To keep the hryvnia from further strengthening, the national Bank in August, was actively buying dollars. For example, yesterday, August 21, he bought $ 50 million. a public auction last Thursday – 44 million.The offer on the market, usually one and a half times exceeded the request of the NBU.

According to the Director of Treasury Bank “Credit Dnepr” Oleg Kurinnoy, the macroeconomic factors are positive for the national currency exchange rate: Ukrainian exports is constantly increasing in volume, metal prices in world markets are also showing growth.

An important role for the further movement of the course will play relations between Ukraine and the IMF and the NBU policy

“The seasonal strengthening of the hryvnia associated with two main factors. First – sterilization of hryvnia mass joint actions of the government and the NBU. The second – increase in volumes of export proceeds in connection with the sharp growth of world prices for steel products, which offset the losses from the blockade ORDO, and in connection with the beginning of the crop farmers,” – says a leading expert of sector sales Treasury products of OTP Bank Nikita Mishakov.

“Also last week there was a period of paying quarterly taxes which has significantly reduced liquidity and forced exporters to sell hard currency (including optional part of foreign exchange earnings),” recalls Treasurer Altmanka Natalia Zhilenko.

The strengthening of the hryvnia allowed the national Bank in early August to ease foreign currency restrictions: it has increased the amount allowed in the balance of the sale by banks of foreign currencies and banking metals within one working day from 0.5% to 1% of regulatory capital.

Until the end of August, the hryvnia exchange rate will continue to grow, experts predict. According to the calculations Nikita Mishakov, in the second half of August have the maximum amount of fiscal benefits this year, so for the performance of its obligations in national currency the exporters are forced to increase the volume of sold foreign currency earnings.

“At the same time, the purchasing power of importers falling in the background of the continuing decline in the purchasing power of the population and shortage of cheap hryvnia resources,” he said.

Natalia Zhilenko recalls over the long weekend associated with Independence Day, the accounts of exporters can accumulate a considerable amount of currency subject to compulsory sale, which can also contribute to the strengthening of the hryvnia.

“But there is another factor – the reimbursement of VAT, which will affect the growth of liquidity and will adjust the volume of sale of currency to decrease,” warns Natalia Zhilenko. Oleg Kurennoy expects that with the beginning of the week the trend will change slightly, but the dollar’s rise will not exceed 10-20 kopecks.

The rate of hatched

Key changes in the foreign exchange market is traditionally expected in the autumn. “The increase in energy imports and an increase in business activity in the market will lead to increased demand for the currency, while supply will remain roughly at the same level. Export revenue from farmers, as always, will begin to enter our markets towards the end of autumn, although its main part is traditionally it will be in late 2017 – early 2018. Therefore, the most significant currency fluctuations this year, we expect will occur in late September – in October,” predicts Smoking.

“Usually by this time the bulk of the farmers manages to sell proceeds for the harvest, prices for steel products begin a seasonal decline in anticipation of winter, and the shops gradually increase currency purchases in anticipation of the winter to increase stock,” adds Nikita Mishakov.

According to Smoking, an important role for the further movement of the course will play relations between Ukraine and the IMF and the NBU policy aimed at market liberalization. “But all this will be possible if the situation in the East will escalate as the military threat always remains a key risk factor for the condition of the entire Ukrainian economy,” he says.

Smoking predicts growth of dollar rate in the range of 1 – 1.5 UAH. Zhilenko implies fluctuations of the us dollar to 27 UAH.

“Slow seasonal autumn devaluation of the hryvnia can only entry the currency to participate in the tender for 4G licenses to mobile network operators. However, this factor is unlikely to stop the devaluation process, but rather slows down his pace,” – says Nikita Mishakov.

We will remind, today, on August 22, the official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine fell to a yearly low and made 25,44 UAH/USD.