What will happen with Central Asia, if you start a US war with North Korea

The United States is on the brink of war with North Korea (DPRK). China promised to stand up for Pyongyang if Kim Jong-UN first will not cause a missile attack on the Americans. Europe has wisely distanced himself from the looming conflict that can escalate into full-scale world war.

To decide on the attack on Korea, the USA lacks only the guarantees of the Russian non-interference in the conflict on the side of China. If the European allies did not run cowardly from the field of a potential nuclear conflict, and expressed a desire, like the fatalistic Japanese, to die for US interests, it would have been understandable.

Europe, reinforced by American troops, would create tensions on the Western borders of Russia, the Baltic border States and Ukrainian bandits were in hysterics, creating eventual threat of military attack and forcing the Russian to concentrate forces in the West. For the simultaneous war on two fronts forces from Russia is not enough, so the United States could feel relatively at ease in the far East. And China would have to think whether it makes sense to act against America. To win it, of course, the Americans will not win, and US damage it will cause, but China will suffer terrible human and economic losses. It will be immediately rejected during the last years of the Manchu dynasty (great Qing).

But the Europeans from “honor” to risk themselves for American interests declined, and while the Americans failed to change their minds. On the contrary, Europe is increasingly accuses the US into the oblivion of universal Western values.

In this war the us needs. If there will be a short, victorious war with strong and scary, but not dangerous opponent, then America risks sliding into civil war, which almost started in January-February in Washington and new York, and is now flaring up in the southern United States. Foreign war to consolidate American society, return it to its former solidity. At the same time and force the United States to show.

Therefore, in this case the role of the victim and the selected nuclear missile of North Korea, and not some harmless, Libya or Serbia. The enemy must be serious, the victim a significant (but not critical), otherwise the society won’t agree with unity to danger.

But the war should not be prolonged. Neither the U.S. economy nor the psyche of Americans will not tolerate a long conflict. Therefore, China should be excluded from the scheme. With him for a month or two you will not understand.

Meanwhile the destruction of the DPRK sufficiently undermine the prestige and authority of China in Southeast Asia to American hegemony in the region, no one could compete with. In order to effectively put pressure on China, it is only necessary, as has been said, to deprive him of hope for Russian support.

Because Europe is not an assistant, is the only effective way is the gap of communication between Russia and China. This requires control over Central Asia. It is not the military destruction of the bombing, namely control.

To bomb a road in the desert is impossible. Destroyed place you can simply avoid (and recover for long). You need to change the political power for the one that will close down the space for communication between Russia and China. Transsib and BAM vulnerable from the territory of Kazakhstan. He blocks a connection through Mongolia. Thus, to break the Russian-Chinese communications, the key is the control of Kazakhstan.

Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are important from the point of view of blocking the shortest communication in the triangle of Russia, China, Iran (including on the southern route, through Afghanistan).

In this regard, the change of the Central Asian regimes on Pro-American or at least the destabilization of Central Asia is for the United States is extremely relevant in light of the preparation of aggression against Korea.

However, the time factor in this case plays against US. The decision about war or peace must be taken in the coming days (weeks maximum). During this time the organization of a full color revolution in at least one Central Asian state is technically impossible.

The more local system of elite understands that being in the triangle, though informal, but the allies (Russia, Iran, China), to act against them on the side of the unpredictable, the US is counterproductive. So use ambitious members of this system is now difficult. It is necessary to prepare non-systemic opposition, which will not produce a coup, but a rebellion. But it’s long.

While the United States is trying to provoke North Korea for the first blow, because Beijing has said that if Pyongyang will go first, then China, for it did not intercede. Washington may imitate the aggression against himself. Anyway, today the increase of aggressive rhetoric and the deployment of American troops bring US to a spontaneous decision to take a chance and strike on North Korea, despite the lack of preparation of the theater of military operations (TVD).

If the US will risk (and it will be clear in the coming weeks), no matter how evolved the fighting, Central Asia will be bred for their brackets (with the exception of the Russian-Chinese military transit). Its fate will decide the winner in the new global device.

If the US decides aggression against Korea to postpone and better prepare the theater for a short, victorious war, to the max, eliminating the possibility of the intervention of Russia and China in the conflict, in the next few months will spin the situation in all the Central Asian States. Including with the transfer of aggressive Islamists from Libya, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan (of all places, where they are defeated).

Rostislav Ischenko, President of system analysis and forecasting for Sputnik Kyrgyzstan.

The opinion of the author may not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.