Sanctions against the DPRK. US hints at the use of military force, Russia fears the expansion of American influence

On 5 August the UN security Council adopted a resolution on strengthening sanctions against the DPRK. In the end, the President, Trump managed to achieve results on the North Korean problem. He made it clear that he was ready to use military force against North Korea and thereby have shaken Russia and China, which belonged to the strengthening of sanctions with caution. Russia fears that if the DPRK will not abandon provocations, the United States will expand its military presence in northeast Asia, located near the borders of Russia, so the Kremlin, voted against Pyongyang.

5 Aug trump tweeted a message of praise: “China and Russia voted with us. This is a very powerful blow to the finances of the DPRK!”. On the same day the White house also issued a statement in which he praised the actions of China and Russia, which is extremely rare: “the President is grateful to the cooperation of China and Russia”.

The DPRK started to conduct test launches of ICBMs, whose range is the United States. In this regard, trump has made it clear that he is willing to use military force. Thus, it shook China and Russia, which treated the increased pressure on North Korea negatively.

August 1, Senator Lindsey Graham (Lindsey Graham) reported that trump warned: “If ICBMs are aimed at the United States, will begin us-Korean war”. 2 August the US state Department has urged American citizens in the DPRK, leaving the country in August.

Russia fears the unpredictable steps of the trump. In addition, the Kremlin was concerned that the nuclear and missile issue of the DPRK, the U.S. has accelerated the deployment in South Korea of a missile defense system THAAD, which can also be used against Russia. Moscow demanded that the friendly DPRK behaved with restraint, but Pyongyang has ignored these requirements.

So, apparently Russia has decided that in order for the DPRK started a dialog on the nuclear issue with the countries concerned, certain pressure is needed. Also influenced by the fact that in recent years the United States, who held a tough stance, began to treat the dialogue with enthusiasm. The representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia positively assessed the statement of US state Secretary Rex Tillerson (Rex Tillerson), which on 1 August urged North Korea to dialogue.

China, which the UN security Council was held on the North Korean issue the same with the Russian position, supported the resolution. So Moscow was afraid that if she one veto, it would have led to the final deterioration of relations with the United States.

The Putin administration, the upcoming presidential elections to be held in March next year, wants to avoid new sanctions from the United States.

The new sanctions against North Korea are unlikely to deal a major blow to the Russian economy. Trade with the DPRK not exceed 0.1% of the total trade. In accordance with the sanctions it was forbidden to accept new North Korean workers in Russia, however, has more than 40 thousand citizens of the DPRK. The reduction of this amount had not been raised in the UN security Council.


Expert opinion:

Sanctions will not stop the development

Atsuhito Isozaki (Isozaki Atsuhito, Professor, Keio University):

This time against North Korea were adopted tough sanctions. However, if we consider the purpose of which is to eliminate nuclear and missile program of the DPRK, we can say that it has not been achieved. Kim Jong-UN realizes that without missiles and nuclear weapons, its system will collapse. Most likely, he’ll react as if the sanctions did not cause him any damage.

Launches ICBM in July showed that the DPRK has reached a certain technological level. Perhaps Pyongyang believes that it is one of the turning points that will help lead the diplomatic dialogue. Now the question is whether Washington to convince Pyongyang that sanctions it needs to respond with nuclear tests.


Almost no impact on Russia

Shigeki Hakamada (Hakamada Shigeki, Professor Nightscope University):

Based on the fact that the US has taken the decision to strengthen anti-Russian economic sanctions, we can conclude that the international community feared the protests of Russia. The reason why Russia has approved a resolution, is that she has decided that it is wrong to aggravate the confrontation with the United States, as this will lead to increased anti-Russian sanctions and the arms race in the far East.

Trump stated the negative attitude to the law on the strengthening of sanctions against Russia, and the Kremlin retained hopes for improved relations with the administration of the trump.

Also the reason that additional sanctions do not apply to the oil, and it likely will not lead to the collapse of the state system in the DPRK, what are they afraid of China and Russia. In addition, the restrictions do not affect North Korean workers who are already in Russia, so they have almost no impact on the Russian economy.