So, the new us sanctions against Russia to be. We have on this occasion universal joy and pride. About the same as after the decision of the Stockholm arbitration “bribe Yanukovych” $ 3 billion when the repayment of this sum Russia has delayed, pending appeal. Happy until, until it became clear that every day of delay us dripping fine. Therefore, before celebrating the sanctions, should soberly assess whether to wait for the fulfillment of a cherished dream — the funeral of the Russian economy.
The document, while he was still bill No. 3364, had shared the headlines “Fighting the enemies of America, through the law on sanctions”. This is the most sinister law in three sections on restrictive measures against Iran, Russia and North Korea. To stuff them with North Korea and Iran (sanctions for the missile launch), had to because of sanctions against Russia could not gather a quorum. At least, if necessary to overcome a presidential veto. And so — what veto, if the DPRK is now planned enemy of America No. 1. Since Syrian President Assad because of Russia’s victory over the terrible LIH (banned in Russia organization — approx. ed.) has ceased to fulfill this role.
To analyze a section of the act entitled “Sanctions against the Russian Federation and the fight against terrorism and illegal financing” of many tried and best of all made by the BBC (Russian service), Fortune magazine and Bloomberg.
The BBC compares the new sanctions existing. In particular, the bill No. 3364 expanded restrictions on the supply of goods, services and technologies necessary to implement new (old not affected — approx. author) projects for the development of new (!) deep-water oil and fields in Arctic and extraction from shale.
But there is one important detail that our commentators don’t pay attention. The restrictions relate primarily to American companies: they can not participate in projects where the proportion of Russians exceeds 33%. Not coincidentally against the expansion of sanctions, according to the Wall Street Journal, were ExxonMobil and Chevron.
In Russia theoretically limits affect projects five leaders of the oil sector: Rosneft, Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, LUKOIL and Surgutneftegaz. But almost large investments in oil production and the development of new deposits were made prior to the adoption of sanctions.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that for the last 5-6 years the company invested about 100 billion dollars in development of deposits in Eastern Siberia, the Caspian sea and in other regions. These deposits now are starting work and replace depleting fields in West Siberia and the Urals.
For Russia is important to maintain the normal level of world prices, than the development of new fields. In the article “Oil pick up was hitting Russia, came by himself”, we gave a version of the Egyptian journalist Imad Annan stated in an Arab newspaper NoonPost, that Saudi Arabia together with the Americans deliberately knocked oil prices to the lowest possible level in order to bring down the Russian economy. Calculation, as we have already mentioned, was as follows: Russia is a colossus on feet of oil — filled up (especially in terms of sanctions) and to help Syria can’t.
But Russia is not collapsed, almost destroyed ISIS, Assad still rules Syria. And was blown away somehow Norway with Saudi Arabia, for which $ 25 per barrel turned out to be more ruinous than in Russia. Costly rich countries cheap oil. And in the end, OPEC has reduced production: made the decision, against which at the instigation of the Obama administration acted Saudi Arabia.
The price is above $ 45 per barrel allows Russia to maintain production to a maximum of 530 million tonnes, at least 300 million tons (with the potential resource of 700 million tons of oil per year) and does not cares about production capacity. Moreover, at an excessively high level, there is no economic sense.
Shale and deepwater oil Russian companies are practically not extracted. With the exception of participation of LUKOIL in the development of offshore gas condensate field Shah-Deniz in Azerbaijan. But its share there is 10% of the shares, less restrictive regulations.
But if in terms of limiting investment in new fields the sanctions are not affecting the values, where the impact can be felt is in actual embargo on the supply of technologies and services required for the construction of pipelines. Including the “Nord stream-2”, because of which we are afraid to lose the transit. The Financial Times sees as a threat to the realization of the “Turkish stream” and “Sakhalin-2”.
Restrictions apply to the situation where a single item costs over 1 million dollar or over the past 12 months was delivered of goods to $ 5 million. However, there is an important amendment: the application of sanctions for infrastructure projects should be coordinated with “local partners”. I.e. with the European partners of Gazprom, with the Turks or, for example, with Qatar, if suddenly a partner will make it.
In this regard, a very important detail observed by American publication Fortune. It says that, first of all, there is a big difference between the sanctions stipulated by the law, and the penalties put in action. Donald trump could not oppose the will of the legislature not to bring a new batch of hysterical attacks. But he managed to sanctions on Iran and North Korea were engaged in Congress and sanctions against Russia were in his jurisdiction.
“In addition, for sanctions to be effective, they need to enter and execute. Investigations should be conducted. Needs to be determined fines. But the law does not say about the duty actively to exercise or even any responsibility of officials in case of delay. It is possible that even if the White house and will not pay attention, the law would be enforced due to the persistent actions of some politicians and public servants. But given trump’s approach to Russia, there is little that indicates that he will have to start its decisive application in practice,” notes Fortune.
Given these nuances, our analysts are very important to understand the comments of the European companies and to clap the hands against premature joy. When Bloomberg quoted Deputy General Director of the French company Engie Pierre Chareyre that the Engie can suspend financing of the project of construction of the pipeline “Nord stream-2”, if new US sanctions against Russia will be applied (!), the key word here is “if”. Also formulate its position and the Germans. Adding that he will insist on negotiations and negotiating positions, as required by the bill.
From the set of financial restrictions, sanctions maximally stupid to ban the participation of American companies or citizens concerns in the privatization of Russian state-owned companies (with investments of over $ 10 million. Large privatization sales, which may be of interest to American companies, Russia in the foreseeable future, no plans.
Much more tangible may be the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of Russian debt. However, we are talking about securities that are already traded in the market. To resort to new foreign borrowings of the financing of the budget deficit in Russia is not planning to 2020.
As for the third, believed to be the most painful limitations of the prohibition to lend to Russian banks for periods exceeding 14 days, and the oil and gas company — up to 30 days, here, as in the earlier sanctions, the restriction imposed on U.S. financial institutions. In other words, the law allows Trump to prohibit U.S. citizens or companies to give loans to Russian borrowers for a period exceeding that prescribed. But, as noted by Russian financiers, financing by American banks in Russia and so less popular than the European, Asian or offshore.
As for the so inspired us in the preamble with words like “Russia has invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea, supported the Assad regime in Syria, and so on.”, it is fiction, which sounds nice, but the market price has. Because our share of global bargaining, which includes sanctions, is not provided. We’re not the target of world politics, we have a tool trolling Russia. Should we be proud of every patriot decides for himself.