Venezuela is experiencing one of the most dramatic periods in its recent history. With environment in the country carried out a General strike and at the same time, do not stop mass protests. These acts of disobedience designed to pressure the government of Nicolas Maduro, so he canceled the elections in the so-called Constitutional Assembly. She will be instructed to make fundamental amendments to the Constitution that the opposition will turn Venezuela into a second Cuba, a one-party system and the lack of any democracy.
On the eve of the American newspaper El Nuevo Herald reported, citing its sources that President Maduro proposes to postpone the election to the Constitutional Assembly for 45 days in order to, as he put it, “cool street protests”.
In favor of this development said the information obtained from my sources in Cuba that during his visit to Havana in mid-July, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has convinced Cuban leader Raul Castro to influence Maduro, that he refused election to the Constitutional Assembly. Simultaneously, it is reported that the governments of 13 Latin American countries, among them such large, as Brazil, Argentina, Chile also sought the cancellation of the elections, which could lead Venezuela to the brink of civil war.
The civil war bursts its banks
Now in Venezuela one gets a qualitatively different situation. The total number of victims amounted to 106, but this number is growing every day. Many of the streets of the Venezuelan capital of Caracas blocked by barricades of garbage and almost empty. On the walls the inscription “No to dictatorship!” At the call of the “Roundtable of democratic unity”, uniting about 20 opposition parties in the capital were held thousands March called “Taking of Caracas”.
But at the same time no less hot atmosphere develops around the country. The US President Donald trump said that if Maduro will not withdraw from the election to the Constitutional Assembly, he will impose against his country’s severe sanctions. “The United States will not sit idly by, while Venezuela collapses, wrote trump on his Twitter feed. — If the regime Maduro will impose the country of 30 July, the Constitutional Assembly, the United States will take a powerful and fast economic measures.”
Relations between the United States and Venezuela remain tense for the past 18 years, since coming to power in this Latin American country Hugo Chavez. In 2010, the two countries recalled their ambassadors from Washington and Caracas, respectively. However, the democratic Obama administration tried to reduce mutual irritation and resentment. And after the White house came a Republican Donald trump, it became clear that these relations will worsen even more. An informal adviser to the current President for Latin America took to be the Senator from Florida of Cuban roots, Marco Rubio. He has long called for curtailing Obama’s policies against Havana, but an even more implacable refers to Maduro. Good knowledge of Latin American realities allows him to push the pain points of the Venezuelan rulers.
Sanctions or “compassion”
What threatens the White house to Caracas? According to numerous experts in the U.S. and Latin America, we can talk about partial or full termination of import of oil and petroleum products from Venezuela. According to the Spanish newspaper El Pais, Venezuela supplies the US 36 percent of all extracted oil country, and in the case of the boycott of its budget will lose $ 11 billion $ 700 million annually. For experiencing acute shortage of foreign currency to the Venezuelan economy it is a disaster. Says the former Governor of Caracas and former representative of Venezuela to the UN, Diego arias, “only compassion trump can save Maduro”. And probably not only him. A boycott of Venezuelan oil could lead to a humanitarian disaster of enormous proportions. Already, tens of thousands of Venezuelans fleeing from famine, crossing the border with neighboring Colombia in the hope of finding bread and shelter from the increasing violence.
And this turn has caused serious concern among U.S. experts. Tough economic sanctions can not only prove to be ineffective. US sanctions for its may shoot themselves. George tail, an analyst at WOLA (Washington Office on Latin America) claims that it will cause only “Patriotic enthusiasm on the part of the Maduro regime, which is accused of all troubles of the country and US imperialism”.
David Smiled, Professor, University of New Orleans, believes that “the Venezuelan government will come out stronger after this a new conflict with the United States.” Furthermore, the scientist believes, “there is no possibility to impose economic sanctions against Caracas without consequences for the population.” He is afraid that Venezuelans have long been suffering from food shortages and high inflation, one of the highest in the world, “will simply die of hunger.”
But us officials in recent times to provoke the Venezuelan leaders, speaking statements, which only give rise to President Maduro to accuse the US of plotting a coup in Venezuela. So at the end of last week, the Director of the CIA Mike Pompeo said, answering a question of one of the participants of the security Conference in aspen that he held meetings in the capitals of Mexico and Colombia, however, “to give them (representatives of these countries) to understand what needs to be done to achieve the best result in Venezuela.” Venezuelan authorities reacted immediately, accusing the head of the CIA in the preparation of the right-wing coup like those that were implemented by the States at the time in Chile and Guatemala. “It is well known that the government trump is one of the most inexperienced in foreign policy in recent history of America, writes in this regard, the famous Latin American columnist Andres Oppenheimer. — However, that said Pompeo, is the greatest folly, even in the background of the General low parameters of the current Cabinet of the United States”.
Shot with strong impact
Indeed, the days when the CIA would relatively painless to carry out a coup in the Latin American countries, had passed. The world has become so interdependent that any ill-considered military action could resonance to hit one who hits. And if relations between Caracas and Washington glowing white-hot, it can become a serious threat to the national security of the United States. After all, according to the CIA in Venezuela has accumulated a huge amount of weapons, most of which were purchased on credit in Russia. In particular, as estimated by experts, can be up to a million “Stingers” (in Russian terminology “Needle”) that in the case of escalation of the conflict may become a deadly weapon for American civil aircraft.
But that’s not all. The first world war, as you know, began after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which no one could have foreseen. Now the world expects that trump may be in their political interests to attack the North Korean bully Kim Jong Ynu or try again to block Iran with its nuclear program. But it is possible that the epicenter of the conflict, which is now regional, but can become and the world will be Venezuela.
Moscow is extremely irritated new perpetual anti-Russian sanctions approved by the U.S. Congress. President Vladimir Putin and his team seem completely disappointed in trump. And if before the first meeting of the two leaders in Hamburg the Kremlin still had some illusions about the fact that the US President will be able to overcome the resistance of Congress, now they came to an end. In informal conversations the Russian politicians call trump a “wimp” does not meet their expectations.
Russia already gave the first response to the sanctions. As already reported haqqin.az, at the American Embassy selected dacha in Serebryany Bor in Moscow (we will remind that else in December the Americans banned the use of the Embassy dacha Russia in the States of Maryland and new York). In addition, the state Department proposed to reduce the number of representations of the USA in Moscow to the level of the Russian mission in the United States. As a result, Washington will be forced to send home a group of diplomats, well over 35 people, the number of Russian employees, who were deported from the United States at the end of last year.
Venezuela as a zone of confrontation between the two powers
And what will happen next, nobody knows. Putin seems to have set up very seriously. And apparently it is considering new answers to uncle Sam. Where Moscow can resist the Americans? In Syria is unlikely, there are two countries with all their differences have one enemy — ISIS. In relation to young Kim bully Russia in words to this time agree with US, but in fact protects the North Korean dictator, although if American carriers will strike his blow “tomogavkami”, to intercede for him will not. As for Iran, if trump refuses a multilateral deal to limit the Iranian nuclear program and again is sanctions, then Moscow will be on the sidelines in anticipation of an economic dividend from this new quarrel between the West and Iran.
But Venezuela stands alone in this list. There Russia has substantial oil interests and has already invested billions of dollars. So why not use a civil war in this country to show Americans “gruel”?! Why not put the Caracas modern weapons, even in debt, why not hold a “significant” naval exercises in the Caribbean sea with the participation of Venezuelans, and even to invite China? Thus, Putin will declare Trump: America has invaded the sphere of control of Russia, after a revolution in Ukraine, and we will act not far from your shores. And if earlier the function of an unsinkable Soviet aircraft carrier was performed in Cuba, now a Russian base can be in Venezuela.
So Maduro has a chance to stand in confrontation with the Americans, as his time stood Castro. The story develops in a spiral, but nobody knows which of its windings humanity would collapse.