Despite the pride: Russia faces challenges in Syria

Not necessary to be seven spans in a forehead to see how Russia seeks to keep pace with the Americans in the settlement of the Syrian conflict. When the Syrian issue was at the center of the agenda during a one of a kind telephone conversation between Putin and trump (in anticipation of their future meetings), it did not arouse interest from the American side to the extent to what the Russian leadership is seeking to achieve settlement of the Syrian conflict. The reason is that there is nothing that America would have lost in Syria and that, consequently, pushed her to find ways to solve the issue. However, the opposite occurs: after six years of conflict the United States has found a foothold in this country, in particular, via the Kurdish forces.

When Lavrov speaks in a tone close to the humble, that the American point of view was taken into account in the development of a plan to create “zones of de-escalation” in Syria, it is, of course, true. So, Russia has ignored the Syrian-areas in which the United States entrenched with the help of the Kurds. The latter in turn reflects the interest of Moscow to appease Washington and to ensure that it supported the plan on which rely the guarantor countries, including Russia, as a way to finally resolve the conflict. The plan indicates that the parties recognize the impossibility of a military solution to the conflict, since establishing control over the whole territory of Syria (no matter how long it took, if it was possible?) would not lead to a cessation of violence, on the contrary, it would have continued for many years.


© Ministry of defence Rfsuny de-escalation in Syria


In the famous interview to The Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg (Jeffrey Goldberg) Barack Obama said that Putin was involved in trouble in Syria, so why should we get him out of the predicament? Apparently, trump adheres to the same position, and he has no plan that identifies a course of action in Syria and Iraq, the execution of which he could instruct the Pentagon.

No need to go back to the fact that we have repeatedly talked about U.S. strategy in Syria, namely that it is an echo of the Israeli desire to turn Syria into a black hole which would weaken all the enemies of Israel. USA only cemented this strategy, after Russia has crossed the line and announced himself as an international player, able to challenge American influence in the world.

Currently, Putin is fully aware that the Americans are trying more and more to involve it in the Syrian conflict. At the same time, he realizes that there is no quick military solution, considering how weak the part that is left of Assad’s army and Shiite militia groups, and therefore seeks to achieve mutual understanding with trump on ways out of the crisis. Despite the fact that the interaction with trump may not solve all of the problems Putin believes that with the help of the American President will be able to exert pressure on Arab countries that support the Syrian opposition, and Turkey.

Nothing reflects the scale of the problems in Syria, as the arrogance of Netanyahu. Russian silence (including the media) just confirms it completely. The reason is that Putin is aware of the scale of influence on Netanyahu’s trump, so his anger will affect us policy in Syria and in other regions.

In an interview, the ninth Israeli Russian-speaking channel (which is important), excerpts from which were published on the website of the newspaper “Yediot Ahronot”, Netanyahu said: “I told Putin that either our army will agree to coordinate their actions in Syria, or we will inevitably face”. He also boasted that the Israeli strikes on Syria “was coordinated with Russia, was struck with the knowledge of Putin and without any objection from the Russian side”. Finally, Netanyahu has promised to continue these attacks “whenever it would serve the interests of Israel” and Russia the excuse was compelled to declare in respect of some of these attacks that were committed against the group “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.).

Needless to say that Russia is putting pressure on Iran in order to adopted a plan for establishing zones of de-escalation in Syria, including those items that relate to military movements. The reason for all this is the fear that in view of the impossibility of a military solution to the conflict, Russia for a long time will be dragged into it. Apparently, Putin does not want to delay the settlement of the conflict, and strives to put an end to the crisis before the country begins the world Cup, that is until next year.

This does not mean that other players no problem in Syria. However, it is safe to say that settlement will not take place if Khamenei will not abandon their illusions, under pressure from Putin, who is convinced that conflict resolution can not occur without changing the position of the Syrian regime.