To reach the forecast level predicted by Ministry of Finance, for 29.3 hryvnia on average for the year, the national currency should be in the second half of the year to depreciate at least up to 32 hryvnia per dollar, says analyst Natalia Milchakova. However, this prediction can be called pessimistic. For example, the Razumkov Centre forecast course in district 27 hryvnia in the second half, and Concorde Capital assume that at the end of this year the dollar will cost 28,5 hryvnia. Itself Natalia Milchakova suggests that even the fall of the dollar will fluctuate in the range 26 to 28 UAH.
“The risk may be, for example, the refusal of the International monetary Fund or other international financial institutions to provide loans to Ukraine. Another risk could be the fall in world prices for grain, metals and other export goods of Ukraine, as well as the fall in global oil prices that could adversely affect the market for foreign importers of the Ukrainian goods. However, what will be the course in the fall – really can know only the national Bank of Ukraine as hryvnia more expensive and cheaper mainly due to the policy which the national Bank conducts the foreign exchange market”, – says Natalia Milchakova.
“The risk may be, for example, the refusal of the International monetary Fund or other international financial institutions to provide loans to Ukraine”, – says Natalia Milchakova.
In comparison with the currencies of many other developing countries, the expert said that the hryvnia illiquid and of little interest to currency speculators.