Military expert Alexey arestovich sure that the Ukrainian government is preparing a plan for de-occupation of Donbass. In interview “” he told how this can be accomplished, what will be the role of the US in the likely operation and scenarios of development of events in case of full-scale aggression of Vladimir Putin against Ukraine.
Catherine Kozubenko: U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson said that Ukraine and Russia can resolve the situation in Donbas out of the Minsk agreements. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities have started talking about changing the format of the ATO. What, in your opinion, could this be the format?
Alexey arestovich: the Minsk format not working, Russia for its part does not even the first paragraph of these agreements (on a ceasefire in the Donbas — “Apostrophe”). It does not work for the simple reason that Russia is not a party to the agreement, but only an observer. It does not suit us, as Russia is a party to the conflict. The West got it four years later. Putin is so tired of Trump in Syria and around the world, they decided it’s telling, to whip in Ukraine.
Putin is a difficult situation, protests. In November they will have a simultaneous peak of the protests and the maximum decrease of combat capability due to the mass care demobilization of conscripts from service in September-October. This will happen three months before elections scheduled for 18 March 2018, this means that the Donbass have to take.
The Minsk format is not working, but has long maintained his visibility. Everything depended on the US position, and she, apparently, has already been formed. And, apparently, we are talking about a military operation in the Donbass with Stripping out Russian troops and indicative flogging of the separatists. This operation the Armed forces of Ukraine can spend right now: we have superiority in forces and means, we are much better at war, we have moral superiority.
I see that in the West, someone wants to hold a demonstration spanking Putin three months before the election, presenting him at the same time the bill for “Boeing” (downed in the Donbass in 2014 — “Apostrophe”), for the downed Kaczynski (the plane crash near Smolensk in 2010), for Ukraine, for Syria, for all together. Then combine it all with the peak of Russian protests and kill his perspective on the presidential election. Just to kill or punish revealing.
Apparently, Ukraine is a main lever, when viewed from Washington. Moldova and Georgia will punish Russia, and Ukraine — comparable power. Everything came together — the interests of Poroshenko, interests trump the interests of the Ukrainian and American tops. The spearhead of this attack aimed at Vladimir Putin, and it will be indicative to flog somewhere in November.
— What is the role of the States in this process?
— States will give Ukraine guarantees the failure of full-scale operation against Ukraine, most likely. They will understand Vova: if he lift aircraft or missiles, then it will be very Bo-Bo in an economic sense. Here immediately begins to take the American side with a lethal weapon.
— The Budapest Memorandum will not be repeated?
— It won’t. Here’s the situation: the speaker of Parliament Andriy Parubiy went to the States and said that we signed a cooperation agreement, which involves the presence of warehouses of strategic reserves of the us army. These warehouses can be created very quickly — in six months. But such operations are prepared for the year. If anything, Americans do not need to bring weapons in here, we’ll just open the warehouse and get it. With their consent.
— If Ukraine will begin the active phase of the liberation of Donbass, then we can blame the failure of the Minsk agreements and to start another so-called “operation to save the Russian-speaking population”.
— Let them try. They have protests in 90 cities, Alexei Navalny has all the bells. At this point, they begin an adventure against Ukraine, which coincides with the internal protests and the imposition of additional sanctions. What will happen? And if you imagine that it is still somewhere in Syria preloaded at the same time. You need to be a complete idiot to begin with.
— What to prepare for Ukraine?
— We will kill.
— We have the same understaffed army unit.
— Always something there. Perfect armies do not exist. We have about 90 thousand troops in the ATO area and around it. The Russians — 40 thousand people. This is already twice as high.
What happened during the battle for the Groove? We took the commanding heights, began to view the territory for 20 kilometers forward, if much thematisiert. The separatists have failed, when they were driven to repel the attack. Through the night came the Russians personnel. They were covered by artillery, while they were there, and the Russian commanders, who came from the Russian side, delved into the situation.
I called concerned the Russians from St. Petersburg and said that after this event, near the Military medical Academy [named after S. M. Kirov, Ministry of defense of Russia] for four days, sat the sanitary Board. As you know, in the best medical institution in Russia it is unlikely the separatists carry. A Russian military personnel. From there (Donbass — “Apostrophe”) meat exported.
In Russia, the murmuring among the military. They say, let’s or full-scale operation, or leave the Donbass, because it is impossible to dispose of the military. They are huge losses that exceed ten times our own. They make a lot of stupid mistakes. And the format of a hybrid war, when they are hiding and can’t use its power, reduces their numbers. And, most importantly, brings down the moral and psychological aspect which they have not in the mood to fight.
I assure you that the Russian military relief will accept withdrawal from the Donbas and the termination of this confusion on their part. Putin knows it and will drive through the power of the Russian army to the slaughter. Let them come in. Our commanders are fighting there for the fourth year and know every Bush. And these will enter and will not know the situation. If the offensive, the situation will change with speed of 20-30 kilometers per day. They will not keep up with the course of events.
Add to this that we will their land to release. What will be the enthusiasm and the roar. What will be the support of the military. And what do they do? They came, does not know the separatists don’t believe them regularly conceals Ukrainian artillery. In this situation, to fight is very difficult, even glorious Russian army, which, in fact, — inflated bubble. There is Russian propaganda and Russian military power, as is the situation on the battlefield.
We can now carry out this operation. A year later, with American help, the correct construction of the relevant legal framework, calling for 18 months and training of reserve officers, the endless training of the reserve and the contract, which is ongoing… we Have 200 thousand reserve — people who have won in the ATO. Well, Hello, Vova.
— If to speak about the latest Pro-Russian action, which opposed the renaming of the Avenue General Vatutin Avenue Shukhevych. How strong are these forces?
— They’re strong, if they created 300 seniors and 50 aunts, who viciously beat the nationalists? If Pro-Russian forces try to destabilize the situation here, we need to have in your country everything was fine. If you have mass protests and children protest, it’s very difficult. In addition, for four years, all learned and understand who is who and where displays.
If they begin to beat and to kill at these meetings, it is quite possible that they are, in principle, cease to exit. For any 500 hryvnia, you’re not going where you can get killed.
Don’t forget that Poroshenko — not the President of a peaceful country, he is the Supreme commander of a country at war. 400 thousand mobilized the security forces, who did my blood. Least two years they only victories are brought up — we have not lost a single meter and only come just take.
I was a terrible enemy, drawn by Russian propaganda — invincible Russia. They are the enemy is the fourth year chase. These people are very difficult to stop. They will put your foot on the throat to anyone — both internal and external enemies.
Now take the list that Poroshenko can do right now: legalization of handguns, the removal of excise tax on automobiles, the construction of roads across the country, the beginning of modernization of NPP, the arrest of Medvedchuk, Tymoshenko, infringement of the oligarchs, the military operation in the Donbas and so on. Can you imagine the ratings potential of these steps? They can be implemented right now. What is the internal enemy who does Russia shatter?
But try to be?
— Certainly will. Russia has missed a historic chance to defeat Ukraine. It had to be done in the spring of 2014. But even then they assessed their capabilities and realized that I’m not. Even if they go to Kiev, Odessa, Dnepr, it will be a guerrilla war. They will then be killed. And would do it much more actively, than in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Because Chechnya is half the Kiev region. And if you take eight areas where every day will kill five people, then that’s 40 people a day. What will happen in two months? Therefore, they understand immediately that nothing will happen.
I don’t think have ever seen a large-scale operation against Ukraine. Max and rocket attacks.
— What did they expect?
— On a bluff and support the Pro-Russian population. “Russian spring” broke on may 2 in Odessa, where the Russian-speaking fans of “Chernomorets” it’s all broken. Russian speakers in Ukraine were against Putin. After that, it became clear that the Russians lost the war. Next is the matter of time and technology. Now they missed their chance, and we shove the army — we have 250 thousand army mobilized 200 thousand reserve. All Russian ground forces — 330 thousand people. But Russia is slightly more than Ukraine, and they want to protect from Kaliningrad to the Kuril Islands, and then there are Syria, Central Asia and the Caucasus. They can’t collect it all and throw at us. They have on the border is 25 thousand people.
Well, here they will gather all that is take part of the national guard (all impossible because of the constant protests) and collecting 100-strong group. But it’s for a short time — they will begin the problems in other places. With all these, they will try to attack, and we have 400 thousand mobilized security forces.
Let’s say they raise the aircraft. Well, the defense specialists of the little Georgia, which was prepared by Ukrainian specialists, hit 5 days of war 7 aircraft and 19 injured, including a strategic bomber, which was never hit. We’ll shoot 90 in a week.
Don’t forget that we have our own fighter aircraft and Ukrainian pilots are very angry, ready to tradeoff with the Russians. Imagine that Ukrainian pilot shot down over Donetsk or Kiev, he landed on a parachute where the girls meet, it are on hand in the hospital, photographs are printed and until the end of his life he is a hero.
Where a Russian pilot will descend by parachute? Where it will score with hoes. It adds pilots mood or skill…
This adventure will ruin Russia, not just Putin’s regime. They will receive 20 thousand corpses that can not hide, will receive columns of their prisoners, downed aircraft live and captured pilots. Will receive a full package of economic sanctions.
We first rolled, and then take what you gained. It will be our military victory and their defeat is guaranteed 102%. They have something in mind, and they understand that about any full-scale operation out of the question.
They will always threaten to have a soft occupation of Belarus, to create a us Northern front in August of this year, so we do not strongly pull to the East because that is the eternal threat on the North-Western direction. But in this case we can tell Donald Trump: “You don’t want problems with Poland and Baltic States? So let’s create Russian problem in the East, the more her problems in the East, the less problems with NATO. So, let’s welcome, set a red line to Putin and give us weapons.”
— How much lethal weapon, to change the situation at the front?
The basis of the Russian attack are the company and battalion tactical groups, which are strengthened with armored vehicles. If they give us anti-tank systems, we knock out armored vehicles, already nobody is coming — there is no potential for occurrence.
Previously, we had no anti-tank weapons when they attacked, we fought with grenade launchers and LNG, but this is not anti-money. But our boys these reproduktologii means nazhgli a number of tanks in Debaltsevo, mother dear!
Still did the following: special forces went in depth and looked, where are grouped the Russian armored reserves, suggests artillery, and it wing these reserves or their repair base, warehouses of fuel and ammunition. For two or three days they have lost the capacity for the offensive.
If we combine the work of anti-tank systems with our increased capabilities and the more we knock out the tanks that reached the front lines, neither of which the Russian offensive speech will not go.
Left tank company, attack on the Ukrainian position, and six tanks have not returned. You go to the next attack? You tank is not planted tank, they will have a glass of teeth-pounding, a cigarette in his mouth will not go.
I was told when there was a war in Georgia, on the first day, the Georgians had shot down two aircraft. So the next day we all downed pilots — the blood alcohol and the rank of major. This means that without doping they did not fly did not fly young pilots — feared. Flew simcommander of regiments and commanders of the squadrons. As they flew: flew, went over a nearby hill, dumped ammunition on the mountain, came back and told me that bombed the Georgian convoy. The fact that it is very scary — took off from the aerodrome four aircraft but two did not return. No one adds to the mood. Especially when you don’t understand what they are fighting. If the attack the territory of Russia, they will protect their homeland, but now they are the aggressors.
They understand that taking off to bomb the Ukrainian army, you can meet Polish or American fighter. Trump simple, and take nut a no-fly zone. In Syria, he already did, and there are precedents — the fighter was shot down, which the Kurds have been bombed, and Kurds were given a lethal weapon.
Why is the Ukraine not to do if bezviz did. To bezveza everything was in limbo, but now it all became clear — we integrate a heightened pace to the West. So, to protect or to help. Us and not have to defend, we just need a little help, but we ourselves who want to protect. Now the Western military who come to train our people, learn from them and leave. Ukrainian army now — # 1 in combat experience against the background of NATO for the reason that no one have not fought with tanks and artillery. Moreover, no one fought in a hybrid war.
— What are the prospects for Putin in Syria now?
— No. Flogged it as rubbish dog. Putin is a monkey. In Thailand, there is a trap for the monkeys: she puts his hand into the cage, takes the bananas and can not remove the hand. For this we need to let go of the bananas, but it do not allows psychology — it grabbed a bunch. Putin — here is the monkey with his entire Russia. Let go, let go and walk away. You can still replay. Still possible apology to return to Syria, Crimea, Donbass. Bringing all apologies again to become a civilized country, to play by the rules compete and evolve, but they can’t. They grabbed the banana, and let not. What happens with this monkey? She’ll go to dinner to the local natives. So he will go for dinner to the local natives in Syria, in Ukraine and in Russia. Vova beat all, such a great player.
— Is it possible to take control of the border with Russia, which is now controlled by the militants?
— Have the ability to use the police, the OSCE, the EU or the UN. But the Russians will fight till the end to prevent it there, using the fact that they are members of the UN security Council. The security Council can be circumvented, but imagine how difficult it will be to persuade all those on Nauru and other Islands, which the Russians will be suitcases of money to give, so they voted correctly. This dead end, the idea of forced police mission in about two years. The Minsk agreement forced three years. But they do not work. It is necessary to use other methods.
— What should be the operation to liberate the Donbas?
First comes the riot and begins to cut the connection, fat telecommunications workers and warrant officers who sit there, then destroy the control centers, and undermine warehouses with ammunition and fuel. Then comes a massive blow to proven targets, 80% of which we know. Then come the infantry and tanks, using the results of fire strikes. On the third day, when we will chase them and wedges will break the line of defense, and the situation will change every hour and will lose control with their hand, then start to work our aircraft.
— What would be the point of no return for the Russian army?
— Everything will be decided in three days. It’s very simple. It is enough for us to break into three places at a depth of 50 kilometers, to make three debaltseve corridor — an end to them. Then our artillery would reach the border with Russia, all roads will be cut, and they will not be able to maneuver.
What is the story of Avdeevka? We got the fire control over the road from Donetsk to Gorlovka, and Gorlovka — the key to the front. If we take Gorlovka or she gets into the environment, what can be done now, the front is falling apart — LC and DNR are unable to work together. We’re starting to dissect, to cover fire, and that all of their defensive ends.
— Is it possible guerrilla war after the liberation of Donbass?
— Nothing will happen. There are separate attempts of the Russian special services to protest and blow up, but it’s the usual terrorist war. Will once a week to kill one of the Ukrainian military, which in turn somewhere, come on, not listening to commanders. Well, it always happens.
There are impossible large-scale guerrilla war is education for the day raked. There’s no one to deal with. Everyone who could be partisan to go to Ukraine or Russia. In addition, there will be martial law, there will be active measures of intelligence. All who remained ours to be very accurate with your finger to show who’s the most active. There you just need to run local, Luhansk and Donetsk, who saw how it all began, who know who started, who studied with them in some classes, but they went to our side and fought for us. That’s them there, you need to run, they will bring order very quickly, and it will be done. Local management of the SBU must be equipped with a third Luhansk and Donetsk, a third — Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, and some of the Central office of Kiev is a perfect combination that will grind everything.