The airspace over Syria is probably the busiest in the world.
It rush bombers, fighters, drones, spy planes and missiles. And important actors of the civil war, the United States, Russia and Iran, in addition to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, and even Turkey, just to the side — are now building the presence of all of the above. This increases the risk of a direct confrontation between the superpowers.
However, the impression that different States in full absorbed in the definition of their positions after the Islamic state (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.) — before the storm important Bastion of ISIS — Raqqa and the final expulsion of ISIL from Syria.
Earlier this week, the U.S. shot down a Syrian fighter bomber SU-22 of the Russian production to the North-West of Raqqa, and the next day was downed drone in Iran, who also performed the task of the regime of Damascus.
Violent Russian reaction, indicates that Moscow is already struggling to divide Syria on the area of interest. In the future Russia would like to target radars in Syria on all American planes to the West of the Euphrates river. This does not mean that the aircraft will be shoot down, but it is a signal to indicate that, in the opinion of Russia, in this part of Syria has the right to decide it.
But the restriction of “to the West of the Euphrates” means in turn that Russia provides US freedom of action to the East of the great river, where is located the most important area of the so-called Caliphate by ISIL. This suggests that Moscow recognizes the main responsibility for the defeat of ISIS lies with the United States, while Russia can focus on helping the Assad regime in opposition to all those rebel groups that are fighting with him.
However, Russia stopped occurring until recently, the exchange of information with the United States, the purpose of which was to avoid accidents and direct clashes in Syrian airspace. That is the risk of direct clashes between the two superpowers increased.
The fact that the US shot down an enemy plane for the first time since the war in Kosovo in 1999, suggests that the United States unequivocally took the side of the Arab-Kurdish militia SDF fighting against Assad. SU-22, allegedly oppressed forces of the SDF on Sunday and were quickly brought down by a defender of the militia of the United States. A substantial part of SDFсоставляет Kurdish YPG militia, which the President of Donald trump has just decided to supply arms that caused extreme irritation of the partner in NATO Turkey.
Thus, the first plan is increasingly put forward the Kurdish question: will the Kurds have an independent state or, at least, a clear Autonomous rights in Syria and Iraq when the war is over? It seems that the US is now acting in this direction, but it’s unsettling as Turkey and Iran — of course, not counting Bashar al-Assad, who hopes that he will once again be able to regain control of their country.
Don’t forget about Iran
During the week Iran, too, was forced to talk about himself. At ISIS positions in South-Eastern Syria from the Iranian territory were fired a series of missiles “ground-ground”. It happened for the first time since the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).
Iran is not content with just the support of Bashar al-Assad in six years of civil war and struggle for its survival as a Shiite ally. At the period when the war is over, no matter how distant it may seem, Tehran also has its own requirements.
A substitute for war
The conflict is gradually becoming the typical traits of a substitute for war, which we remember from the time of the cold war, when the United States and the Soviet Union indirectly fought each other in various conflicts around the globe. In order to prevent the escalation of the conflict, we need good will. But while it seems unlikely that any of the parties is ready to prove it.
The risk of direct confrontation in Syria is growing constantly, and it’s not a theory. Who, for example, could have predicted that NATO member Turkey in November 2015, will bring down a Russian fighter jet? What would happen if the US or Russia will go on open confrontation?
The endgame in the fight against the Islamic state in Syria is gradually subordinated to the filling of the power vacuum that will arise after the elimination of ISIS.