Weak States sooner or later will pay dearly for their inactivity

It seems that the world is gradually preparing for a big agreement between the newly elected US President and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. In particular this is stated in the American newspaper the Washington Post in an article entitled “On the horizon — the Covenant trump with Putin?”.

“Trump said about his desire:” I want to be friends with Russia.” He also wants to cooperate with the Kremlin on a wide range of issues, from joint operations to combat terrorism, particularly against the “Islamic state”, to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and promotion of Iran and North Korea… the thaw in relations between the US and Russia would serve personal and political interests of the two leaders,” the newspaper notes.

Recall that before the New year another influential American newspaper the Wall Street Journal published an article by Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Pinchuk, who urged Kiev to unilateral concessions to the Kremlin in the article “Ukraine needs to come to a painful compromise for peace with Russia.”

“Day” in article “”Compromises Pinchuk” = “Munich-2017″?” already assessed this initiative Pinchuk, who have been enriched by having a son-in-law of President Leonid Kuchma (1994-2004), which positions itself in the world as a philanthropist, and he was making multimillion-dollar contributions to the funds of the Clintons, Blair, and paid a tidy sum to the candidate of the Republican party, Donald trump spoke via Skype to an audience of Yalta European strategy 2015.

It should be noted that on 1 January on the website Politico.com published a very serious article called “the long game Putin”. Its author Molly McCue stressed that the world order that we knew is over and Russia is acting quickly to take advantage. Can trump time to understand that the war began, to win it.

“Day” addressed to international and Ukrainian experts to comment on the possibility of a Pact between trump and Putin, as well as to assess the initiative of the Ukrainian oligarch, who offers to Kiev to make painful compromise for peace with Moscow.

“Article Pinchuk with a call for painful compromises on the part of Ukraine is an attempt to put myself in as a possible successor to Poroshenko”

Stephen Blank, senior fellow American foreign policy Council, Washington:

— Still early to speak about the details of the policy regarding any issue in the next administration, including issues concerning Ukraine. But we can’t rule out the possibility of an agreement with Moscow that will take place at the expense not only of Ukraine, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, but at the expense of other post-Soviet States and even former members of the Warsaw Pact, that is Eastern Europe. If such an agreement materializes, it calls into question the viability of both NATO and the EU and ensure a Putin victory, which he and his predecessors dreamed of, trying to get a distinct advantage in Europe and the former Soviet Union.

In this context, the new article Pinchuk with a call for painful compromises on the part of Ukraine is an attempt to put myself in as a possible successor to Poroshenko, the agreement will appear and completely undermine the current Ukrainian government. He presents himself as a person, compatible with Moscow. Or, to use the metaphor of the Second world war, Kisling and pétain against Putin. Moreover, such an opportunity would allow him and his cronies continue to enrich themselves at the expense of the Ukrainian people and to bring Ukraine back in a situation that is contrary to all experience of independence, and in fact of the vassal towards Moscow.

Also in this context, we are still unable to assess the influence of the ideas proposed by Henry Kissinger or his colleagues about the neutralization of Ukraine and formally the separation of Crimea and the recognition part of Russia. However, this does not correspond to the statements that were announced by trump in his election campaign of 2016. However, no one who is expected to be in the administration, does not speak about these issues. And infamous tweets trump rather talk about his views, not on specific policy areas, no matter how ill-informed and ill-considered views may be President-elect. Finally, from all these reasons it is impossible to know whether trump, what are the goals and the strategy of Putin.

“I have a feeling that the script trump Putin is quite possible”

Lincoln Mitchell, a political scientist, a former Professor at Columbia University, author of The Paradox of Democracy Promotion, Washington:

— I have a feeling that the script trump Putin is possible. Trump is very outspoken about his passion for Putin and also exploited the sentiment among the American electorate that is tired of U.S. involvement in every corner of the world, and wants the country focused on domestic issues. Also troubled by the fact that so many high-ranking and rank-and-file Republicans changed their views on Putin, because trump was talking about him nice things. So, overall, I think that Pinchuk might be right.

I don’t think trump has a long focus, interest or intelligence to question his current beliefs. I don’t understand the reasons for feelings trump Putin, but they are real. More the following scenario is possible: either someone from the environment, trump will explain why Putin is not a friend of the United States and our allies, or Putin will do or, more likely, will say something that will annoy trump, and then trump would be mad at the owner of the Kremlin….

“Pragmatic, sharing in the spirit of the beloved Putin nineteenth-century politics seems to suit everyone”

Mykola Kapitonenko, Executive Director of the Center for the study of international relations, Kyiv:

— “Big deal” between trump and Putin, which for so long spoke to many who did not want the victory of a billionaire election, again excites the imagination of observers. Especially in the Ukraine: its basis can become Washington’s consent to the stay of the country in the Russian zone of influence.

Resonant ideas on this subject have been formulated recently, former U.S. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger and a Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk. Their leitmotif about the following: Ukraine will have to seek a compromise with Russia, and it will be difficult and painful.

In this regard, it is worth noting the following: in General, the administration of the trump does not hurt to offer Putin an exchange of Ukraine for their assistance in Syria, nuclear nonproliferation and terrorism. Perhaps, many in Washington will consider a good deal, because in exchange for a secondary issue can get something more important. That Ukraine has become for US a secondary question, responsible to look for a long time is not necessary. The complexity of American policy in the middle East also known. Pragmatic exchange like Putin nineteenth-century politics seems to suit everyone.

Not satisfied with Ukraine. Annexation and war have formed a strong anti-Russian element of the Ukrainian identity and in the Kremlin no one to blame but himself. This means that no matter how blurred was left with a swamp of domestic politics, to impose a course “back in the USSR” would be impossible. At least, the weak, ineffective and unattractive Russia what it is today. This consideration is, paradoxically, makes the bargain even more attractive in the eyes of Americans. To give Russia under the guise of concessions what she can’t have — what could be better?

Parallels with the 1930 years we are unnecessary. The notorious policy of appeasement, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the crisis of security in Europe then proceeded in completely different conditions types of cell, the state-centric world. Although a General lesson can be extracted: a weak, ineffective state sooner or later will pay dearly for their inaction.

We need to realize that to pay for everything: and for the implementation of such plans, and offer alternatives. Delaying the transformation into a normal state is fraught with internal schisms, and a lack of initiative in foreign policy — the final and irreversible transformation into an object of international relations.

With regard to the objectives of Pinchuk in connection with the publication of an article in The Wall Street Journal. The fact that this idea will become more and more popular, especially if the war is to drag on with no prospect of release. And that could happen if Putin and trump agree: Putin can easily turn us on Transnistria. Soon Davos, and then Munich — Pinchuk will be there to promote the idea further. His business needs the world, and I think not only him.