Ukrainians began to take money from accounts. As shown by the latest statistics of the national Bank, in may, they withdrew from their hryvnia deposits 724 million UAH and currency and $ 6 million. It’s not much — only 0.3% and 0.1% of Deposit investments: June 1, individuals remained in the banking system of 209.6 billion and 8.3 billion dollars. However, prior to this, public savings were increased month-to-month, writes the UBR.
The new phenomenon, according to financial experts, there are several reasons:
- seasonality: money off for vacation, repairs/construction, education, etc.;
- the recent easing of rules of a conclusion of money abroad;
- the growth of prices for goods and services for which people have to actively spend their savings.
- the decrease in Bank interest rates on deposits, which lowered the yield of deposits below the level of actual inflation.
- the intensification of the speculative mood of the population: people are more likely to convert their savings into different currencies, trying to win on the difference in rates and interest rates on deposits.
The last three of the factor financiers believe the main for may, as the monthly rise in prices of goods by 0.5 – 1% negates the idea of monetary savings. As noted by a member of the Ukrainian society of financial analysts Vitaly Shapran, with such prices it makes sense to invest in the hryvnia or dollar, and in constantly rising in price products. Especially in the conditions of negative inflation expectations.
Negates the meaning of cash savings and the percentage policy of banks. Last month they lowered the average yield of hryvnia deposits by 1.5 – 3% per annum (to 14.79 – 15,82% per annum depending on the term of placement), the dollar — 0.9% to 1.2% per annum (to 3.28 – to 4.68% per annum).
Those who have decided to play on courses and rates, according to financial expert Alexei Kusch, have already reached a certain sequence of operations. Shift the money at the fall of the hryvnia in the fall and strengthen it for summer. Currency cyclicality rests on the seasonality of the Ukrainian economy.
“The Ukrainian economy, in terms of exchange rate dynamics, approaching Latin American model — products of agriculture, raw materials and remittances of migrant workers. This implies that the exchange rate will move in a sine wave with a known cyclical, depending on the business cycles of key industries. For example: planted, harvested, sold. Industry, which previously straightened dynamics of the exchange rate, already the trend is not affected,” — said Kusch.
What’s next?
Bankers make different predictions about further changes in Deposit rates. The Chairman of the Board RwS Bank Vladislav Kravets, for example, believes that yields will stop falling. At least in the national currency: it suggests that the average percentage will be fixed at 15% per annum. But currency investments, in his opinion, can still be cheaper by 1%.
“Commercial banks have already turned, they not reduce the percent followed by state agencies. Was hoping for a flow resource. Flow yet to be seen. People are afraid of. Those who are investing — put no more than the guaranteed amount of 200 thousand UAH. And then wait for,” said Kravets.
At tabernacles the opposite point of view: he expects a further decline in Deposit interest. In connection with expectations of reduction in the discount rate of the national Bank. After it will shrink the profitability of Deposit certificates of the NBU, in which banks shift deposits.
“The state affecting the half of the system, with unlimited resource that can crush any market trend and to expand it where necessary. How can you predict rates? Moreover, banks have ceased to fulfil the classic role of intermediaries is to take from citizens and invest in the economy. They take from citizens and invest in depositefile and sovereign bonds,” — said Kusch.
