In the first round of parliamentary elections in France, the centrist party of the newly elected President of Emmanuel Macron “Go Republic!” comes in first place with a score of 28.21% of the vote. Local analysts and the media in the second round tipped her until 445 of 577 seats in the National Assembly – the lower house of the French Parliament. “Go Republic!” had left behind the center-right Alliance, headed “Republicans” from 15.77% support Alliance “Unconquered France” with the Communists from 13.74% and the right-wing Alliance headed by the “National front” Pro marine Le Pen from 13.2%. But the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and recently the ruling socialist party received less than 12.5% of votes necessary to pass second round.
The results of the election talking about the massive request of the French society for complete renewal of the political system and the ruling elite. At the same time the first round was held amid record low turnout – more than 50% of voters did not go to the polling stations. It is their voices and have to fight the Makron and his party in the Parliament to push through promised reforms. For Ukraine, the victory of the party of the newly elected President of France as his in the presidential election, a very positive signal. Especially against the background of a future visit of Peter Poroshenko in Paris. Because the agenda of the talks the leaders of Ukraine and France, not only the activation of the “Norman format”, but and deepening of bilateral contacts and the help of Paris and Kiev.
The parliamentary electoral system in France unusual for a Ukrainian citizen. National Assembly deputies are elected on majority system in two rounds, if the first none of the candidates receives more than 50% of the vote. To exit in the second round also has a threshold – a candidate must gain more than 12.5%. In the first round of parliamentary elections in 2017 was attended by nearly 8 thousand candidates from over 20 parties. But in the second round managed to get representatives of only four political forces.
As predicted by sociologists, the Alliance of the political forces of the newly elected President of Emmanuel Macron “Go Republic!” and party MoDem. Together they gathered of 32.32% of the vote. If they manage to repeat the same dizzying success and in the second round on June 18, they will be able to form a coalition and get the 445 seats in the National Assembly.
In the second place center-right “Republicans”, “the Union of Democrats and independents” and other parties that enter into an Alliance with “Republican”. According to the interior Ministry of France, and together they got 21,56% (which is 13% less than in the elections in 2012) and can count on 800-100 seats in the new lower house. Initially they predicted a lot more support. But, according to experts, the Macron was able to “shoot down” their results by providing the “Republicans” of the three seats in the new government.
Alliance “Unconquered France” with the French Communist party can get up to 18 seats in the National Assembly. But the “National front” marine Le Pen in conjunction with the party “come on France” managed to score only of 13.74%. This, according to sociologists, a crushing defeat with 34% support for marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election. In the second round of parliamentary elections, according to projections, the national front can count a maximum of 10 seats, which is not enough even to create their parliamentary group (15 cards). The socialists and the force of Mélenchon in the second round are not, as in the first scored less than 12.5% of the required votes.
Interestingly, the first round of parliamentary elections took place in France when a record low turnout of 48.7%. For comparison, in 2012 this figure was 57%. In many respects sociologists is associated with the voter fatigue after a pretty intense presidential campaign, which ended a little over a month ago. Pro marine Le Pen be named on the outdated electoral system in need of reform. But the socialists, lost in the first round, and even urged not to vote the Macron, as in the new lower house will not be real opposition.
But even the low turnout did not prevent a young political party “Go Republic!” to become a leader. It is worth Recalling that his party macron has created only a year ago, and originally it was called “go Forward!” but after winning the presidential elections the political force received the name “go Republic!”. The vast majority of candidates from the presidential political force has never been in politics, therefore, according to the experts, the party was able to obtain a high credibility companies. Not last role has played and the victory of the Macron in the international arena. He managed to win the fight handshake with Donald trump and criticize the White house for secession from the Paris climate agreement. And Vladimir Putin, hosting in Versailles, has even promised to tighten sanctions and called the Russian media mouthpiece of propaganda.
Victory on the international stage has been reinforced and promises to restore order to internal problems, which during the presidency of Francois Hollande has accumulated a lot. “At the beginning of his presidency, Hollande is sharply raised taxes. Many people including the average and slightly below average class, I don’t mean the very rich, the bourgeoisie suffered. Tax increases pushed some people to take loans from banks to pay for taxes. Macron promises to reduce what we in France call “social taxes” – pension, medical insurance. These taxes are very high, as increased as Hollande and Sarkozy. For example, if I earn 1000 Euro, you have to pay about 550 Euro “social taxes”, plus about 150 euros of income tax. Remains 300 euros, which is very small,” explained in an interview with “Today,” the President of the French Center for the study of political action (CERAP), and Nicolas Tenzer.
Furthermore, Makron has already established a national counterterrorism center, and started a dialogue with the unions to reduce pensions for civil servants. Also members of “go Republic!” promise to change labor and pension legislation, to adopt a new law on combating terrorism, reduce public spending by 60 billion euros and to reduce the number of civil servants by 120 thousand people.
What to expect Ukraine? During a meeting in Versailles on may 29 in addition to public criticism of Emmanuel macron Vladimir Putin hinted that he would like to hurry to meet him at the round table in the “channel format”. The newly elected French President repeated it at the G7 summit in Sicily, adding that he would like in the “Normandy format” to hear the report of the OSCE on the situation in the East.
The head of the Ukrainian foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said that in the near future will be the visit of Peter Poroshenko in Paris for talks with Emmanuel Macron. The main issue on the agenda – date of meeting of leaders “Norman Quartet.” Now, according to klimkina, are very intensive consultations with the German and French partners. “I recently talked with French Minister of foreign Affairs, the planned meeting in the near future, it is not excluded at the same time a trilateral meeting with the German Minister of foreign Affairs,” – said the head of the Ukrainian foreign Ministry.
According to French experts, the Makron can bring in the “Normandy format” a new impetus, and even to pull itself put the question of leadership. Meanwhile, the main “Fuhrer” channel process remains German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but on the background of a significant deterioration of relations between Berlin and Moscow the format of negotiations with Russia on Donbass needs a reboot. Such can offer Emmanuel macron and, according to the Western press, the plan to reinvigorate the peace process to de-escalate the situation in the East of Ukraine has developed the new French Administration.