That means trump’s step – five replies

USA immediately released from the agreement for climate protection?

No. If the United States and out of the Paris agreement, the process will take at least four years; the state may terminate the contract no earlier than three years after signing. This can be done with 4 of November 2019. Then to a final exit will take another year. Theoretically it could go faster if the us government will announce the abolition of the UN framework Convention on climate change 1992. In this case, the basis of international policies on climate would cease to operate during the year.

Both methods involve risks. Given the long periods of withdrawal from the Paris agreement, from very conservative voters, where the policy aims to trump climate, may give the impression of inactivity. If the President will choose the shortest path through a framework agreement, then in addition to there political and legal uncertainty, as it may overstep the limits of their authority. In addition, trump said, at least officially, that it is not against the protection of the climate, and against the “unfair” Paris agreement. It will present itself even less reliable in this question than previously.

Does the U.S. withdrawal end of the Paris agreement?

No. An important agreement on climate protection was signed by 195 countries, and 148 have ratified it. The only countries that refused to sign it, is Nicaragua and Syria. So trump will be in very dubious company. First of all, the Chinese and member States of the European Union, but also countries such as Russia, in response to the decision of trump reaffirmed their commitment to climate protection. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President of France Emmanuel macron and Prime Minister of Italy Paolo Gentiloni also rejected his request for reconsideration.

However, the Americans ‘ withdrawal is a blow. In the United States — which after China is responsible for most carbon emissions of 14.3% of global CO2 emissions in 2015.

In addition, the output reduces pressure on other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, which reluctantly signed the agreement. Even if there is no threat of a Domino effect, different countries referring to its economic competitiveness, can require reducing commitments under the agreement.

Whether Americans support the decision of trump?

Only a minority. According to the survey conducted in the framework of the programme on climate change at Yale University, 70% of Americans believe participation in the Paris agreement. None of the participating countries there is no majority against the Treaty, and even trump’s voters were divided: 47% — for participation, and only 28 % against. Many business representatives also criticized the decision of trump. The head of Disney and Tesla, Bob iger and Elon Musk, in protest, ceased its activity as advisers trump.

Obviously, the decision was controversial even trump. It is significant that even the former head of the oil company, and now Secretary of state Rex Tillerson insisted on keeping the agreement. However, during the election campaign, trump has placed at the forefront of skeptics among Republicans in the issue of climate protection. They were, when 22 senators demanded that trump’s exit from the Paris agreement.

As justified trump?

He wants to keep jobs and believes global warming is a fiction. In his speech, he stressed that the Paris agreement is unfair to the United States weakens the country’s economy and allows such States as India and China grow at the expense of Americans. “The Paris agreement is a recent example of a Treaty that infringes on the interests of the United States to other countries and becomes burdensome for American workers, which I love, and taxpayers, because it leads to the loss of jobs, lowering of wages, factory closures and a sharp drop in economic production.”

Thus, trump is aiming at its main nationalist voters and workers in those industries which experienced a sharp decline in recent decades. However, it is unlikely that such a move trump to fix their situation. It shows, for example, the case of the coal industry, whose revival has repeatedly promised trump. Its decline is associated not only with the norms for climate protection, but with the lack of ability to compete with natural gas.

With the climate in the US done?

No. But trump can significantly weaken it since it will get rid of the state’s obligations under the contract. He has already taken the first steps in this direction, weakening the Agency for environmental protection and signed a decree against the policy framework for climate protection than its predecessor — the “Law on clean energy” (Clean Power Act).

But on another level working on climate protection continues. Many individual States and cities have taken on a much more serious commitment. Specific sectors of the economy will continue to rely on clean technologies, because they expect that it will become a competitive advantage.