Demographers were wrong in their forecasts: the fertility decline in Africa over the last decade did not happen, the population growth continues in the scale that were not known to mankind. In 1960, on the African continent lived 280 million people, today — 1.2 billion, of which one billion are in Africa South of the Sahara. According to UN estimates, in 2050 the continent’s population will be 2.5 billion people, and by the end of the century 4.4 billion. It’s more than the entire population of the planet in 1980. For reasons of political correctness hard to ignore the fact that overpopulation is a major cause of hunger, lack of fresh water, ethnic conflicts and migration. If before all the troubles on the continent have accused colonialism, the policies of Western corporations and the corruption of local elites, today the most negative role is played by the demographic factor.
It is noteworthy that despite the global trend towards population stabilization, fertility rates in Africa not falling. On average, one woman in Nigeria has 5.6 children in Somalia (even civil war) of 6.4, and in Niger is 7.6. The reasons are many: thanks to modern medicine has dropped infant mortality, but to limit the number of children that Africans are not in a hurry. Women are still seen as “rojalnyh machines,” contraception Africans almost never use, family planning does not exist. This approach is characteristic for both Muslim and Christian communities of Africa. Occurs the exponential growth of the young population, which “eats” all the fruits of economic growth. The average age of the population in Africa and the middle East — 15-20 years, while, for example, in Austria 41. Young people without employment prospects and earnings is an explosive material, it is prone to violence and extremism. The easiest way is emigration. As a result, more and more African youth aspires to “aging” childless Europe and it creates intractable refugee problem. According to various estimates, Europe may pour tens of millions of Africans, the old continent is threatened by another “migration of peoples”. In Africa the population explosion has exacerbated the religious and ethnic conflicts in Rwanda, Sudan, Darfur, Somalia and other regions. More and more scientists and political analysts in Europe have warned that the old continent will not be able to resist the demographic pressure from Africa and the Middle East. What happened in 2015, when came to Europe more than half a million refugees, will inevitably be repeated, and on a much larger scale.
So far, the Western countries help Africa was limited to infrastructure projects and humanitarian supplies, but to limit the birth rate have received little attention. Experts discuss which method is most effective. The Chinese way (writ birth control to 1-2 children) in Africa is unacceptable due to established traditions and psychology. It is proposed to increase the role of women, actively carry out family planning and distribute free contraceptives, but it will take too much time and does not change the situation in the short term. The left-liberal Western demographers, such as Professor at the Sorbonne Roland Shalar continued to radiate optimism. According to them, all right: Africa is only the rise of a large demographic cycle, while Europe, North America and East Asia are long gone, Latin America and South Asia complete. This means that the population explosion in Africa will continue for quite a long time before the birth rate falls. Although in theory the African continent to feed two billion people, with the current level of agricultural productivity is unlikely.
Thus, the problem exists and is serious enough. Unprecedented population growth in Africa is associated with a number of factors that are not in other developing regions. First, Africa has witnessed tremendous socio-economic backwardness, preserved archaic family structure, urbanization is limited. And, most important, absent a strong state that could take control of the process of reproduction of the population, as it did in China. Corrupt elites of the African countries don’t have population policies and on the contrary, encourage childbearing.
In the Soviet Union any call for birth control was perceived as “neo-malthusianism” as unacceptable and reactionary thesis. However, today more and more experts come to the conclusion that the population explosion in Africa and other parts of the third world threatens the existing world order, leads to a basic fight for resources — water, land, food. In today’s world, there is a clear imbalance: North America, Europe and East Asia have undergone a demographic peak. Moreover, in several countries of Europe, in Russia and in Ukraine there is a depopulation. At the same time in the middle East, Africa, Central and South Asia, and Latin America the birth rate is increasing: millions of young people flock to the USA, Europe and Russia in search of a better life. This process is not only social but also biological in nature, it spurs climate change (drought, soil erosion), religious and ethnic conflicts. In this regard, it is useful to remember that the cause of the great migration in the 4-7 centuries was migration from impoverished and inhospitable margins of the civilized world on the cultivated lands of the Roman Empire in search of a more comfortable environment.
