The father of the Argentine Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi (Juan Bautista Alberdi), in his book “Crime and war” (El Crimen de la Guerra), written in 1872, States that “wars will occur less and less as the responsibility for their consequences will be felt by their proponents”. Thus he would have anticipated a century the end of the nuclear arms race that culminated during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and the subsequent signing of the Kennedy and Khrushchev Agreement banning nuclear tests. Then came the era of peaceful coexistence. But the current situation in the world may lead to recurrence of the cold war between the US and Russia, and its starting point will be the threat of a missile attack, and collateral victims — Ukraine, Syria and Venezuela.
Incriminating materials about the ongoing NSA program to intercept telephone conversations PRISM that former CIA officer Edward Snowden gave for publication in The New York Times and The Guardian, caused great concern of the secret service, as it could lead to the disclosure of important state secrets.
Putin skillfully played this card and giving Snowden temporary asylum, appeared before the world as a defender of human rights, simultaneously erasing his image of oppressors of the Chechen people. However, he was well aware of the new dynamics in the style of “action-reaction” peculiar to the times of the cold war, which, from this point, returning Russian-American relations.
Ukraine, the first victim of the cold war
During the last meeting of the CIS heads of state held in Minsk, Putin warned Ukraine that “after the signing of the Association Agreement, Ukraine will lose its customs borders will be flooded with Western products. The abolition of customs barriers would be dangerous, unacceptable and would have a negative impact on Russia if Ukraine was a member of the Customs Union”. Meanwhile, Putin urged Ukraine to join the Customs Union, which includes Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
The Russian President will try to disrupt the implementation of the road map developed by the EU and the United States, and will limit the import of metallurgical and food products, raising the customs duties in trade with Ukraine. All this will be undertaken with the obvious aim of weakening the positions of the Ukrainian supporters of integration with Europe through economic strangulation and the reduction of energy supplies. Simultaneously, Russia will resort to energy blackmail of the EU to weaken its unity. The Russian leadership is absolutely confident that Germany and France will not hesitate to sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of its energy supply. So you can start a new gas war between Russia and Ukraine. It will entail a significant reduction of gas supplies to several countries in the EU (Russian gas by more than 70% meets the needs of the Baltic republics, Finland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic despite the fact that more than 80% of Russian gas enters the EU via the territory of Ukraine). Ukraine will be divided into two almost equal parts, while its South-Eastern regions, including Crimea, will be in the zone of influence of Russia, and the Central and West will be in line with the European Union. This would mean the actual resumption of the cold war between Russia and the United States.
Trump, Putin and the Syrian chessboard
Master stroke for Putin to convince Assad to destroy its entire Arsenal of chemical weapons, the lack of international support for Obama’s plans to launch military action against Syria, along with the strong military support provided by Russia to Syria through the deployment of air defense systems s-300 and s-400 (capable of destroying targets in the air and sea space of Israel) and the delivery of 12 MiG-29M/M2, led to a significant increase of the combat power of the government troops. Clear evidence of this was the brilliant capture of Aleppo, but the geopolitical myopia Assad did not allow him to understand that strong support for the Syrian regime aims to ensure the long-term presence of Russia in the area where you can control all the Eastern Mediterranean.
So, according to the Agency TASS, Russia will strengthen its naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus with the aim of recreating the Mediterranean fleet, disbanded in 1992 after the collapse of the USSR. The core of this fleet is the black sea fleet, Northern fleet and Baltic fleet. According to the newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi, Mediterranean fleet will have at its disposal a naval base jableh (Jableh) in the North-West of Syria, is much better equipped than Tartus.
However, after a blank of the Obama administration the fourth branch of the US government (the real shadow government, which already controls the administration of the tramp) once again resorted to the claims of a chemical attack perpetrated by Syrian government forces to strike at the shayrat air base (Al-Shairat).
In fact, the attack was a warning to Russia, Syria and Iran. These countries hinted that they should consider the opinion of the United States in the development of the international Treaty at the Second Geneva conference on Syria. The conference will be infinitely delayed by Washington until not yet stabiliziruemost military and will not be combined into a single script a comprehensive solution to the middle East conflicts in Syria, Palestine, Iraq and Iran. As conditions administration trump puts forward the overthrow of the Assad regime and the subsequent division of Syria into three parts. Thus we get the Alawite Syria, is a Russian protectorate, which will cover the territory from the Mediterranean coast to Aleppo and Syrian Kurdistan under the auspices of the United States, and the Sunni area in southern Syria, which attach to the territory of compact residence of the Sunnis in Iraq. If we add to this section of Iraq, we can assume that Israel’s efforts to Balkanization of Syria and Iraq was a success. Thus, the strategy of Balkanization Brzezinski will not only apply to a theocratic Shiite regime Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran.
Venezuela — new side victim of the cold war?
China-Venezuela agreement, under which state-owned Chinese Corporation Sinopec will invest $ 14 billion to raise daily oil production to 200 thousand barrels in the Orinoco river basin (considered to be the largest in the world) will be a serious blow to the global geopolitics of the United States. Washington openly aims to cut off China from sources of supply, therefore, we cannot exclude attempts of the CIA to overthrow Maduro. This would mean a return to the policy of “big stick”, which according to U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt. From the beginning of the twentieth century, the US has followed this policy in Latin America, embodying the provisions of the Monroe doctrine “America for the Americans”.
Currently, we are witnessing an unthinkable political coexistence of the Executive power of the President and the legislature controlled by the opposition and almost symmetric splitting of Venezuelan society, which the US uses to impose “controlled chaos by Brzezinski” with the help of the principle of “carrot and stick”, which outlined the Sherman Kent (Sherman Kent) in his book “Strategic intelligence for American foreign policy” (1949). In this book, Kent argues that “war is not always carried out with conventional weapons. A significant part of the wars, both distant and very recent past, always conducted with classical weapons, political and economic. Tools of economic warfare consists of stick and carrot: from one side — the blockade, the freezing of assets, boycott, embargo, blacklist; on the other — grants, loans, bilateral agreements, barter”.
So after an intensive and systematic campaign of destabilization, which will include a sharp reduction in oil purchases from Venezuela with undisguised purpose of economic strangulation of the government of Maduro, the collapse in oil prices, artificially created shortage of essential commodities and inflation in the press, the problems of security of the civilian population, the process of prosecution and overthrow Maduro will end with an appeal to the army to defend the Fatherland in accordance with the action plan developed by the CIA. And if to it to add the invaluable help of Columbia (which became an unsinkable US aircraft carrier in South America) in terms of logistics, the legacy of Chavez will end by 2018.