As the crash of the dollar will change prices in Ukraine: experts

Ukrainians tuned in to the cost of goods and services. Formally, the reason for this is. Indeed, in recent years the dollar, which in our country is tied most components of production costs (raw materials, fuel, etc.) is losing ground. In January, the value of American currency on the interbank market was close to 28 UAH/USD. but from the beginning of April, the hryvnia started to strengthen and now the dollar is worth approximately 26,5 UAH/USD., writes UBR.

However, although the dollar continues to decline for more than a month, prices in Ukrainian shops not go down in a hurry, and in some cases, even continue to grow.

Experts say that one of the main reasons for the consistently high price tag is raising the minimum wage to 3, 2 thousand UAH and a shortage of skilled labour in Ukraine.

“Businesses do not have enough manpower, he is forced to raise wages to attract staff. Naturally, people have more money, and they go with them to the stores,” says economist Eric Naiman.

Despite the strengthening of the hryvnia, keep prices prevailing among entrepreneurs devaluation sentiments. In most of the products sellers continue to lay up to 30 UAH/USD. Besides, for a long time the business was forced to operate at a loss due to the strongly falling of course, but many exporters have lost a lot of money in the course of devaluation in 2014-2015, and are now trying to compensate for the losses.

Moreover, experts say, prices may fall behind the rate of only late — after it was completely sold out the previous batch of product, and a new one purchased already at a lower rate.

Moreover, there must be confidence that in the future the rate will not rise, Because traders in current prices lay idle cost of the next batch. That is, the current batch of product they need to sell at that price, enough to purchase the next one and still have at least something in the form of profit.

“In countries where there is ample opportunity in insurance exchange differences (exchange spots, porady, futures), the risk of rate changes is removed. In Ukraine this is almost there. And since the fall we have almost always begins the rise of the dollar, traders already expect and lay in the current prices of exchange rate risks in the second half of the year,” said financial expert Ivan Nikitchenko.

What’s next?

In connection with the approach of summer, the Ukrainians can count on reduction of prices for seasonal products. Other products on the depreciation of the dollar will not react. First, a slight depreciation of the dollar will “eat” has risen in price fuel, electricity and utilities in General. Besides, your contribution makes a world market.

“Foreign trade we have in the red. Prices on the world market did not fall. And, as a result, imported energy and materials remain expensive,” said President of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko.

But, according to former Deputy head of the NBU Yaroslav Soltis, sellers still must respond to the depreciation. Ukrainians will see the new price tags towards the end of summer practically all goods, including, and contraband: clothes, shoes, appliances.

“Prices in the U.S. declined, and therefore the prices of goods purchased at a high rate, has to count for 26 UAH/USD.”, said Soltis.

Also, as stressed by Ivan Nikitchenko, if in the world markets there will be growth in oil prices, Ukraine also needs to become cheaper and gasoline by 3-5%.

According to analysts, until mid-August, the hryvnia will be stable or even slightly strengthened to 25-26 UAH/USD. But at the end of the year we still expect the rate of 27 UAH/USD. — beginning in the fall, traditionally, the hryvnia is falling in price.

“And in case of failure of the pension and land reforms, we can go out on the course 29-30 UAH/USD. at the end of the year. If a crisis in the U.S. economy or China, then the course just “fly” up to 35 UAH/USD.”, — said Eric Nyman.

In such a scenario, experts say, the price tags will inevitably crawl up. As is known, the value of goods respond to the increase in rate almost instantly. At the same time, as practice shows, in the case of strengthening the hryvnia, the prices are, at best, not change.