Selling rate of non-cash dollar in Ukraine in April decreased by 2% to 26.56 UAH, cash – by 1.9% to 26.55 UAH. Such data “Today” was presented by the information-analytical center Forex club GK.
According to experts, despite falling commodity prices and the resignation of the head of the NBU Valeria Gontareva, the currency market remained stable.
“Measures of control of foreign exchange liberalization contributed to the decline in the share of shadow market, and shifting operations on the interbank market. The recent tranche of the IMF, reducing the cost of the purchase of energy resources, and the decline of the dollar on world markets continue to support the stability of the hryvnia,” – analysts say.
FORECAST. According to analysts, the hryvnia on the cash market in may can be in the range of 26 to 27.5 UAH per dollar. But in the case of a negative scenario associated with the influence of external factors, the rate can go into the higher price range is 27.5–29 UAH. for a dollar.
The average selling rate of cash Euro in Ukraine in may, on the basis of the baseline scenario can vary in the range 28,5 – 29,5 UAH. The range of fluctuations of the selling rate of cash ruble in may can range 0,46 – 0,49 UAH.
Experts explain that the seasonal factor is the main reason for the strengthening of the hryvnia – the demand for foreign currency decreases due to the reduction of costs for the purchase of energy resources, the additional costs for the may holidays and long weekends.
The holding of “Eurovision-2017”, according to experts, will increase the inflow of foreign currency into the country, and improve the balance of payments. Support the hryvnia will provide the cancellation of the visa regime with the EU, which will create fertile ground for the growth of business activity and the inflow of investment capital. The recent tranche of the IMF constrains speculative mood, and control over the banking system and the foreign exchange market by the NBU to reduce the share of the black market.
“The pressure on the hryvnia may intensify in early may due to purchase of currency for dividends by non-residents. Holidays for the currency market probably will be sluggish, however, after the expected burst of activity and implementation of the accumulated demand, which will put pressure on the exchange rate. Liberalization of the currency market work and non-residents can lead to changes in liquidity and short-term distortions of the balance of foreign currency”, – said a senior analyst at GK Forex club Andrey Shevchishin.
According to experts, global trends lay the risks of devaluation of the hryvnia in the future, without considering the influence from the trade embargo and the nationalization of Ukrainian enterprises in the uncontrolled territories. In particular, futures contracts on iron ore prices in April fell more than 11%, wheat – by 1.5%. Remain below the levels of the beginning of the year prices for sunflower oil are also saved the negative trend in the metals market.
The arrival of marine Le Pen to power in France carries risks for the stability of the Eurozone and the Euro. Against this background, the European countries – the main consumers of Ukrainian products – can reduce imports, which will put pressure on the hryvnia.
“The main impact on the dynamics of the Euro currency will have the results of the second round of presidential elections in France. If the victory of marine Le Pen, the Euro may depreciate against the dollar. Given the decline of the British pound during the Brexit, the Euro may reach 10-12%,” the analysts add.
Falling prices on world commodity markets is also possible in case of realization of nuclear threats from North Korea, as this will affect China and logistics in the region.