Elections in France: consequences for Ukraine

In France, the first round of the presidential election which was won by the centrist Emmanuel macron (23,7%) and nationalist leader marine Le Pen (21.5 percent). “Today” figured out that will bring Ukraine to win each of the candidates in the second round, scheduled for may 7. Usually the one who comes in “sparring” with the radical Le Pen always wins. But the Macron is one caveat — his young age. He’s only 39, he is the youngest Prime Minister of France, and there are accustomed to large figures older. But maybe the sharpness Marin deter from her constituents.

THE TURNOUT AND PROTEST. The first stage of voting was calm — the majority of French voted already 17:00 and the turnout in the country amounted to more than 70%. It is the third mass index since 1974. The Macron voted residents of large cities — Paris, Lyons, Gironde, Toulouse, and others, as Le Pen has harvested votes in the provinces. A few areas had to be evacuated because of a suspicious car, although in the end the fears proved false. Moreover, Femen activists in masks, Le Pen, the leader of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the President of the United States Donald trump staged a protest rally at the site where the vote of the main nationalist France.

THE IMPORTANCE FOR THE EU AND THE US. In the French press noted that after the midterm victory of Macron in Brussels, the EU capital, “gasped with relief”. Journalists pay attention that the output in the “final” centrist Makron broke almost bicentennial tradition of confrontation between right and left.

France is a key partner of Ukraine. Because of the position of France was repeatedly postponed a vote on bezveze for Ukraine. “This is one of the biggest countries of Europe and founder of the EU, where we aspire. France has a good military potential. Let cost it has weakened somewhat lately, but militarily it is a strong country. Finally, the locomotive “and Minsk” and “Norman format”, which is especially important for Ukraine. After all, France first proposed to arrange a direct meeting Poroshenko and Putin in June 2014,” sums up politekspert Vadim Karasev.

Macron: “Our man”

The President of the French Center for the study of political action Nicolas Tenzer notes that the final victory of the Macron in the EU and Ukraine will return to the calm. “After all, he clearly stated that the “value” of Vladimir Putin incompatible with European and French values, so no compromise here can not be. Macron also said that any easing of sanctions against Russia will not be until will not be fully implemented, especially Russia, the Minsk agreement, says Tenzer. He called Putin a serious threat and told about the desire of Russia to dominate Europe. So definitely — the foreign policy of Makron, in case of victory, will continue its policy of Hollande in a positive way in relation to Ukraine.”

In addition, the French expert spoke about the impact of elections on visa-free regime for Ukraine: “I think Ukraine does not need to worry if the elections are held normally (win macron. — Ed.) it is only a matter of time. But if not, of course, Ukraine will be difficult.”

NORMANDY. French expert agrees and chief analyst of the Institute of world policy Leonid Litra. He said that in case of victory of Emmanuel Macron France will follow the policy in the “channel format”, which was until today. “In addition, this issue may be even closer cooperation with Germany on the question than it was before. Makron as President suits us much more than Le Pen, is at least will not worsen relations between France and Ukraine, and possibly improve” — sums a Litre.

Marine Le Pen: up

Assessing the possibility of the victory of marine Le Pen in the presidential race, Tenzer says it will be a disaster for Europe and the entire free world: “Everything will turn on its head, and France would be surrounded by a border. Le Pen is close to Putin and fully shares his views on Ukraine. She also wants France out of the EU and the Eurozone want to spend a very protectionist policy. If she wins, it will lead to the collapse of France and to opening doors to the domination of Moscow in Europe.” In addition, the French politekspert insists that the statements of Le Pen in the Crimea (which he never was Ukrainian) and the situation in our country in case of victory can turn into immediate signals to the easing of sanctions. “The Minsk agreements will become completely meaningless, and it will be their end. It will be the end of any concern about the future of Ukraine”, — summed up Tenzer.

THE AGGRESSION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. Leonid Litra also believes that the coming to power of marine Le Pen will result in the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions: “And they at the moment hold back the Russian offensive in Ukraine and a more aggressive policy against our country. It also supported France’s withdrawal from military cooperation in NATO, which greatly hurt the Normandy format”. But an expert on international Affairs Andrew Buzarov doubt that the coming to power of Le Pen have much impact on foreign policy towards Ukraine: “Definition will not be in our country — it does not have all the information on Ukraine. And even if Le Pen wins, it will not dramatically go against public opinion in France.”