The new reality of Putin

Tillerson’s visit to Moscow marked a new stage of relations between Russia and the outside world, not only in the United States. Ended the period, when Vladimir Putin took advantage of a “bad boy”. Sincerely despising the bourgeois, spineless and cowardly the West, he was absolutely sure that he will scare them and they will be.

Bad boy enters the bus, sits on a handicap spot, pulls out the bull, lights. And the public, though outraged, but could do nothing. What happened to him, to fight, or what? People need to go, the trolley total. Will have to wait.

It is recognized that this model is very long and worked effectively. In the case of completely wild military procedures in Chechnya, and in the case of Georgia, where Russia also failed to perform 2 of the 6 agreed with the West point. Indeed, in the plan signed by Medvedev and Sarkozy, it was about the withdrawal of troops to pre-war positions, and the absence of unilateral actions on the part of Russia. The troops were not withdrawn, but Russia unilaterally recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And nothing the West has undergone this tobacco smoke in a General trolley.

Russia assumed that the same will happen with Ukraine, and with Syria. Well, with Ukraine half a win, but the West has, that is, just accumulated. How much can you endure this bad boy in your trolley? He was asked to withdraw from the G8, after being shot down MH17 — imposed sanctions. But for him it is not so important.

However, with the arrival of trump, the situation has changed radically: in the bus was even more badass. And now the first bad boy confronts a major problem: he must either fight with someone who is obviously stronger, or somehow agree on the division of spheres of influence in the bus. The novelty of the situation is that Putin no longer perceived as an equal partner. The US in no way didn’t agree with him a strike on Syria. They put Putin before the fact, informing him out of courtesy a few hours before the strike to minimize the military losses of Russia.

Putin is in a qualitatively new situation — to respond symmetrically, he can not. He has neither military nor economic resources. The main resource of Putin — the cowardice and restraint of the West, fear of losing the business world, etc propaganda through television in the country. Having this strike on Syria, Putin was in a difficult situation: he couldn’t answer, not to answer means to lose face.

In fact, he had already lost, because the Patriotic public was demanding from Putin a rigid symmetric measures: to strike at something. To strike at anything, except for Voronezh, the war machine of Putin, not because he understands how much his war machine weaker than the us, especially NATO. Today it can only be used as a weapon of blackmail. And now the whole world has received a signal that if Putin speaking from a position of strength — he swallowed it.

Knowing the whole situation, Tillerson demonstrates diplomatic courtesy. According to the rules of diplomacy, this trip is a sign of equality of arms and respect for the partner. Lavrov not to invite the report, and he Tillerson went to Moscow. Returning to the U.S. diplomatic lexicon, it is a “steel fist in a kid glove”. Tillerson — kid glove. He arrives, and as expected, Russia first demonstrates the intransigence of Putin refuses to meet, really mouth Peskov.

But apparently Tillerson had some very important for Putin’s trump card because he still meets with U.S. Secretary of state and talking for two hours. In General, even understand what they were discussing.

It most likely was about how to ensure the surrender of Assad, while saving face and winning rhetoric for Vladimir Putin. And here USA will be ready for any language, political demarches on the part of Russia, they are ready to give up, to leave Putin propaganda space where it itself shows the winner.

Outwardly, it will manifest in statements about Russia’s support for Assad and calls for an independent investigation into the use of chemical weapons, which will descend on the brakes the very same Russia. United States such rhetoric quite satisfied until there is a separation of responsibilities: the Washington pursues a real policy and strikes, if necessary, and Moscow can say that it happens with her permission. America and play up Russia, because he understands the importance of Putin’s foreign component.

On that probably settles it. Virtual field West leaves Putin, and the real policy takes.

Naturally, Putin will look for a symmetrical response. It is theoretically possible to imagine that he will try to regain the image of a winner, exacerbating the situation in the Donbass. And perhaps it even happens. But on a limited scale. Direct military confrontation it cannot afford, because it will be a fight with Europe that he now also not desirable. Of course, there will be some provocations in Ukraine, some killing or outreach activities.

But it is unlikely that Russia now has real political, diplomatic, military, human and financial resources to engage in direct confrontation. It will be insane. The problem is that madness plays a large role in determining Russia’s priorities.