Humiliated and insulted. Putin is prepared to surrender

In the night of 6 to 7 April the Americans bombed with cruise missiles to the Syrian military airport shirt. The reason the accusation of Bashar al-Assad’s involvement in chemical attack in Idlib province.

On Sunday it became known that the working schedule of the visit of Secretary of state Rex Tillerson removed meeting with Vladimir Putin. While on the American side, the initiator of cancellation of the meeting was exactly Tillerson.

Anti-Putin revolution in the White house

And attack Tomahawks on Syria, and the cancellation of the meeting with Tillerson President of the Russian Federation is a very painful and public humiliation of Putin personally.

Especially significant in the situation with Syria. Chemical attack to the same still and has not been proved that it involved Assad is purely an excuse. The main message in the other — the Americans can afford to hit not just the ally of Russia and an ally on whose territory the “official visit” is the Agency Shoigu. And while Americans are not, and Russian experts and journalists on the outcome remains to tell how effective was the strike, how many missiles are not reached the target and how it was too expensive for the U.S. military.

But the essence of the other. The Americans tested the reaction of Moscow and saw that the decisive answers were not ready. However, in Washington the next day softened reputational blow for Moscow, moving the information agenda in the direction of the Korean Peninsula, where he was urgently sent two carrier strike group (CSG).

Parallel to Donald trump due to the public humiliation of Vladimir Putin solves its internal problems. The Tramp pulled the neo-conservatives of the Republican party, for which such action is to Bang on someone without dissections, and then retroactively explain why this should have been the accepted norm. And most importantly, he was knocked out of the agenda of the Democrats “Pro-Russian trump”, which is against the head of the White house in fact anything else is no more.

Yes, trump is now forced to sacrifice their pre-election slogans of international isolationism, with whom he won the election. However it is a small sacrifice in comparison with the impeachment of that expert community promised him before the inauguration. The idea of normalization of relations with the “good guy Vladimir” had to be disposed of in the toilet. Along with this idea earlier trump also merged all of Russia’s friends and friends of national security Advisor Michael Flynn, and senior adviser to Stephen Bannon. In contrast, it increased positions openly anti-Russian national security Advisor, Herbert McMaster, as well as military personnel from the security services, which had previously been stiff opposition to Trump. In fact, inside the White house occurred a small revolution, which ousted all of the contingent of “friends of Putin”, the results of which neocons took a strong grip of trump.

Humbled and humiliated

But if Donald trump changed the rules of the game and it was included in the system, Vladimir Putin is now experiencing a particularly painful blow. Plan “to grind with trump” and with minimal losses to reshape the international rules of coexistence, not worked. Russia and personally GDP again a direct blow.

While that hit on the few allies of the Russian Federation, in particular, according to Assad, the Shiites, Hezbollah and Iran. All this Putin offer to surrender under the pretext of — “Oh, how dramatically changed the international agenda.” But not a little agonizing Syria, or even Iran are not the main goal of Washington. The neocons beat Russia and specifically Putin. While that hit indirectly through its allies.

And tellingly, at the same time intensified the allies of Washington. Israel is almost ready to begin a ground operation in Syria. Foreign Minister of Britain, Boris Johnson pretentious canceled his visit to Moscow under the pretext of “new circumstances in Syria,” and with an ultimatum failure of Russian support to Assad. Erdogan also excited and ready to once again change under the new administration of Washington, forgetting about Hulene and opening a new Chapter for the anti-Assad rhetoric. And even little Denmark, which is far from all these events, suddenly determined to block the construction of the second branch “Northern stream”.

Putin imposed as in the “good old” times of Barack Obama, the only difference is that Washington in this time demonstrates the power of determination. It is likely that GDP will press on in other areas. Perhaps “Wake up” Nagorno-Karabakh. Has intensified Islamic fundamentalism on the territory of Russia — Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, Astrakhan oblast — almost every day, attacks on military units and police patrols.

Finally, don’t exclude the intensification of hostilities in the Donbass. Yet Putin pressured along the lines of “hand over Assad,” but it will certainly be followed by a “hand over the Donbass” and “give back Crimea”. And even after the Crimea the stop will not follow. The winners require.

Ukrainian dance

But for Ukraine, nothing a good tightening of the global agenda promises. It is obvious the format war between the West and Russia — it will be held indirectly through allies. Otherwise nuclear, Russia and the United States to wage war reasonably can’t. Accordingly, the “smack” in the first place will buffer regions — middle East, Turkey, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and maybe Belarus and the Baltic States, the Balkans and, of course, Ukraine.

In parallel within Russia itself will glow in the Caucasus, to expand the wave of terrorism and aktiviziruyutsya non-systemic opposition. But the main area of conflict is the perimeter of Russia, including Ukraine, which already is a war.

However, there is another option. Russia surrenders to start the active stage of this scenario, trying to get yourself some beautiful acts of completion in the 90s. But even in the case of such “soft script” nothing positive Ukraine does not Shine. Washington fights for the interests of Kiev, and for their own interests, in which there is no space independent of Russia. But just in the weak, dismembered (without Siberia and Caucasus), de-industrialized and nuclear-free new Russia can be a place in its part of Crimea and Donbas.

Itself anti-Russian agenda, which is the only meaning which sells Kyiv in the international arena, will be garbage. Already the Ukraine with its giant space in excess of today (even without Crimea and part of Donbass) any other European country, will become the object of territorial claims of its neighbors “common European house”.

The collapse of Putin’s Russia will also mean the collapse of modern Ukraine, which in this form will not need anyone.