As the discussion of the resignation of the Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeria Gontareva past two months, the list of potential receivers has reached a Baker’s dozen. For convenience, it even broke into groups. The first group included the former employees of the NBU, Viktor Yushchenko, Tihipko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Serhiy Shumylo, the second political minions — Bohdan Danylyshyn, Stanislav Arzhevitin, Sergei Rybalko, Vasyl Horbal. And only in the third current banker Roman Shpek, Oleksandr Shlapak, Volodymyr Lavrenchuk, and Alexander Gritsenko. Alone stood the figure of the famous Polish economist Leszek Balcerowicz, writes UBR.
By last week the number of contenders for the coveted chair, the NBU has been narrowed to three. “The President is likely to have remained two or three candidates. Gontareva otherwise would not”, — assured the financial expert Ivan Nikitchenko.
What all the experts agree — Petro Poroshenko need in the national Bank as a loyal leader. And one that will be able to adapt to the demands of the International monetary Fund (IMF) and sincerely believe in the necessity of reforms for Ukraine. These conditions exclude the appearance on the position of the foreigner.
“The President’s administration wants to maintain some kind of control of the NBU. Foreigner when it looks impossible,” — said managing partner of investment company Capital Times Eric Naiman.
For the same reasons, the NBU will not return to its former functionaries, not only the leaders (Yushchenko, Tigipko, Yatsenyuk), and former Director of General economic Department of the national Bank Sergei Shumilo. Although, if you believe the member of Ukrainian society of financial analysts Vitaly Shapran earlier, the IMF considered Shumylo the chief banker of the country.
After repeated requests of the IMF about the ideal vocational steering of the Central Bank, it is unlikely Poroshenko will focus on political figures. So Danylyshyn, Arzhevitin and fishing — will disappear.
“The IMF is very concerned that the new man had at least some monetary independence, but also to include the printing press. If you include all the reforms will sink into oblivion”, — said Eric Nyman.
Good chance could be the former owner of the nationalized 9 years ago Ukrgasbank Vasyl Horbal. “Horbal could be a passing candidate, but he had never dealt with monetary direction. This reduces the chances”, — said the President of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko.
Perfect for the financial market — the banking market, analysts say. And here a compromise figure could be Oleksandr Shlapak, who 13 years ago had worked in the national Bank during the presidency of Sergei Tigipko. And knows what natsbankovskih bureaucracy, and how to work live in the banking structure. However, he recently instructed Shlapak instructed stabilization nationalized PrivatBank, and it will hardly pull in the beginning.
Some people call the Eminence Grise among the contenders for a place Gontareva Chairman of the Board of Ukreximbank Alexander Gritsenko. Think he is a decent Manager, and called one of the most loyal and disciplined to the power of financiers.
However, the most convenient for all parties considered all of the current Chairman of Raiffeisen Bank Aval Vladimir Lavrenchuk. People with experience in the Bank with foreign capital is exactly like the IMF, moreover, the person is not associated with any of the political parties of Ukraine. How strong is he in macroeconomics is the question. But it’s easy to close my eyes, sticking out his experience of the banker is to practice. Which, by the way, it may be enough for the Verkhovna Rada.
A little weaker compared to him, looks like the figure head of the Board of the Independent Association of banks of Ukraine Roman Shpek: he does not have such authority among Western financiers like Lavrenchuk, but more experience in working in the banking system as a whole. And definitely more skill on the part of macroeconomic analysis.
“Both candidates are well aware that such work in a Bank, what is to make loans and how to repay them. I doubt that he would agree to head the structure, which will not be able to “help” his former colleagues in the context of collective responsibility for the removal of loans and mortgages. If of course, such instruments of influence will be presented at the direction of the IMF”, — said Alexander Okhrimenko.
Certainly before submitting the candidacy of the new Chairman of NBU in the Verkhovna Rada, his name would be consistent with the MPs. If the intractability of parliamentarians protege Poroshenko may not yet time to switch, experts warn. And as a result become a big surprise for the financial community. Exactly the same as three years ago was Valeria Gontareva.
Yesterday, April 10, head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeriya Gontareva has confirmed its resignation. May 10 the Central Bank may be a new leader. However, the statement of the head of the NBU must be signed by the President, and after that the document must be approved by the Parliament.