USA back to the middle East to lead the parade?

Donald trump made his biggest step into the international arena. With two American destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean sea was running 59 high-precision cruise missiles “Tomahawk”. The blow was struck at the air base the Syrian government troops Shirt, in the province of HOMS. And as stated in the White house — it was a response to Assad for the chemical attack against the civilian population, taken by the Syrian army at the beginning of this week. After years of rhetoric Barack Obama a step trump can radically change the Syrian war. In Turkey, which is involved in the conflict, mass media and writing: now the war will be different. However, this story has a lot of open questions

From the “red lines” to retribution

Barack Obama did not want to fight in Syria. He got his lesson in Libya, where the victory of the Western allies has not brought neither peace nor democracy. Therefore, in Syria the Americans are seriously involved only when LIH (banned organization in Russia — approx. ed.) seized half of that country and a third of neighboring Iraq. Obama was installed before Assad “red line”, threatened him with sanctions for their violations, but nothing effective has failed. In March 2013, when the storming of Aleppo, Assad’s forces used sarin gas in August, when sarin gas killed hundreds of civilians in the Damascus suburb of ghouta, the United States first declared the beginning of preparation for the intervention, but the intervention of Russia and the Kremlin proposal to remove chemical weapons from Syria urged Obama not to interfere. Then even the middle East, America’s allies rebuked Obama of weakness, and the king of Jordan has said that he believes in the American army more than Obama himself.

However, the war continued, it in varying degrees were involved Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Iraq, Israel, and various Islamist groups. When arose on the ruins of the devastated Iraq, ISIS began to threaten the entire region, the United States and other NATO countries began bombing the positions of Islamists. On land the offensive was supported by the Kurds and the moderate Islamists from the opposition to Assad. In this slaughter the Assad government in 2015 was on the verge of defeat. From all sides, government troops pressed to the sea, and Assad’s power was fading away. However, the intervention of Russia turned everything on its head. The Kremlin has stopped the activity of Americans, helped by aviation, equipment and mercenaries, closed the Syrian sky with their s-300 and s-400. Washington silently agreed. In 2016 fell Aleppo, the last major stronghold of the opposition. ISIS was practically driven out of the country. Assad rejoiced, and his opponents would be defeated. The West, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf countries agreed that the President will remain. In fact, the world in Syria was silently agreed upon by the opposition. Let already break it and this will save the Western press from the Syrian horrors. Trump was also configured for this outcome — he was worried about in Syria, only of ISIL, with whom he wanted to fight together with Russia.

In the last month in Syria was quiet. You hardly heard, for example, about 50 Russian air strikes in Northern Hama in the last days of March or the capture by government forces of Khattab. Assad finished off the opposition, but Western media is already held fleeting messages. The great war was over, like that and like Western governments. Even the white house has declared that it no longer insists on the resignation of Assad. Erdogan concluded his “shield of the Euphrates,” and also modestly forgotten about Syria.

But on April 4 there was the same mysterious chemical attack on the city of Khan shaykhun in Idlib province. Stills and videos of the dying children dispersed across the planet and shocked the world. Who and why killed dozens of civilians, including 27 children, is still unclear. The West blames the Syrian government troops, Russia tells about staged falsification attack, and the Syrian military categorically denied the use of gas. No investigations of the incident have not been, evidence is also not provided. However, this did not prevent US to use “retaliation”, and Turkey to Express support for intervention in Syria.

Who has pushed trump to action?

Probably the war in Syria will inflame with a new force. Very much inspired sides. But there’s no answer to the question of who used the gas, history would have a double bottom. Why Assad so to substitute and carry out a chemical attack against a civilian, when his army, and so gained one victory after another and brings an end to the war? When virtually the entire world agreed on his power in Syria, and with the trump and we could establish relations in the framework of the fight against ISIS. An act of intimidation, psychological attack, to civilian refused to support the opposition fighters? Perhaps, but so silly that low, even unbelievable. Trump eventually turned out to be a naive fool in the eyes of their constituents. But everyone knows that the current us President is vindictive and vengeful, but because he would not be forgotten.

There is still the possibility that Assad is being framed by the military. Even the President himself has not commented on the tragedy, although the military leadership hastened to explain. Perhaps among the generals, there are those who see themselves in the place of Bashar after his overthrow. Here, of course, such a “set up” for them. Although the risk of being found out and shot very high.

Russia? The opposition says that Khan shaykhun was bombed by Russian aircraft. But for what? To test the resolve of trump or Erdogan, whose government secretly oversees Idlib and there the militants? To continue the war and to strengthen its position in the middle East? These options can not be discounted. While the war continues, Russia remains a great game in which you can bargain with the West about sanctions, Crimea, Donbass. The king of Jordan even said that Crimea will be the subject of Syrian trade.

There are two versions of the category of conspiracy theories, but who also need to keep in mind.

Trump conflicts with the security services. The CIA, though subordinate to the President, but also his game. General Michael Flynn, who was recently fired from the White house, told me how in the age of Obama American intelligence due to the ban on active operations transferred its data services to other countries who have had greater freedom of action. The CIA has offered to perform the surgery and to destroy both the Assad government and ISIS. Obama refused. Trump initially wanted to bomb only the Islamists, flirting with Russia. Now, after the attack, he said that completely changed his views on what is happening in this country. Today’s attack is a response of the hawks, supported by the CIA. Could US intelligence agencies with their hands or, more likely, strangers to arrange such bright shows for Western voters that trump had a change of heart? Theoretically, Yes, but was it really, of course, no one can prove.

The Syrian opposition — the party that most benefits from what is happening. It is no secret that the freezing of the conflict in Syria, the international community has achieved at her expense and at the expense of the Kurds. Assad has a free hand in the suppression of resistance and a quick peace. In such a situation, a vivid picture of the West could change the balance. If you remember, in 2013, when there were several chemical attacks, the situation was similar — the opposition accused Assad and the opposition and mercenaries. Then, too, the international community sided with the rebels, but the UN investigated the incident and without naming the perpetrators. A member of the UN Commission to investigate human rights violations in Syria, Carla del Ponte even said that there is a strong suspicion of sarin use by the rebels. Now such an attack could delay the death sentence for insurgents, if not to turn it the other way. Assad fact a bastard in the eyes of the West, who would believe him. And if you remember, where are the threads for the financing of militants, you can go to Ankara or Riyadh — the countries who are interested in revenge.

Whoever committed the attack, the result is obvious — the sympathy of the world community was observed only during the brutal massacre in Aleppo. Not to respond to such a heinous crime trump could not, or would show himself a weakling.

Strike on Assad or Putin?

However, saying And, Trump will have to speak V. United States does not deny that this is their retaliatory military operation, and he, Donald trump announced it. Not to cause an international scandal, the Pentagon reportedly even warned Russia before destroying Syrian airfield, presumably carried out the departure of aircraft with chemical weapons and where it is stored. But there is another important aspect, talking about her Secretary Rex Tillerson. He said that Russia has not coped with the implementation of the agreement on chemical weapons in Syria in 2013. Then the Kremlin assured the world that he was in charge of Syria’s chemical weapons, Russia will take out and destroy. Now it turns out that these weapons are still in Syria and used against civilians. Tillerson said that Moscow or complicit, or incompetent. And note that Tillerson says that any contacts with the Kremlin, either before or after the attack was not. That is, or the Pentagon had warned their Russian counterparts in military channels, or the head of the state Department refutes claims of his army. According to Tillerson, the US did not seek approval of its policy on Syria in Moscow. And it’s completely inconsistent with everything trump said earlier all the talk of action together. Tillerson even suggested Russia and Iran to reconsider its attitude to the Assad regime.

Perhaps, on the background of the scandal with checks trump on the subject of relations with Russia, the American President makes it clear to its citizens that it is independent, and Russia — that it is time to begin a constructive dialogue with the USA on cooperation in Syria. Trump makes it clear to everyone that the era of “concern” Obama has come to an end. But there are questions. It was a demonstrative blow? According to the TV channel ABC News, citing an eyewitness, before the missile strike, the U.S. military in the Syrian province of HOMS evacuated staff. That is, people were warned about the attack in advance. The result of the attack, bombed the aerodrome, only 6 Syrians killed, and spent it all as much as us $ 85 million. just for some “Tomahawks”. Not expensive it came out of the presentation? Because used effective weapon for the destruction of a mediocre goal, but could in earnest strike. 59 “Tomahawk” spent. For whom it was intended? Perhaps, as for their constituents and for the international community.

In principle trump before the election promised to throw more bombs in Syria to bring peace. But this has not yet happened, and Russia did not agree. Now the Kremlin and all the important countries of the region put an ultimatum — either join, or we’ll do it ourselves in Syria. The allies of Washington, which under Obama felt the slack in solidarity with trump. “We are ready to support the operation of the United States, when it comes,” said the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, also can approve the transaction and has approved missile strikes. France, Britain, Australia and Israel, too. In the middle East are looking to the White house, because America has always been essential here, holding back the region from plunging into chaos. In Japan, local media reports that authorities are concerned, as it is not pushed to the DPRK nuclear movements. Iran strongly condemned the attacks on Syria.

Everyone was waiting for Putin’s reaction. The Kremlin said that he “believes a missile attack U.S. airfield Syrian government forces aggression against a sovereign state and an attempt to divert attention from civilian casualties in Iraq.” The moderate wording, however, about the true reaction of the Kremlin can be seen in the publications of the Russian media. Those critical of the US, quoting Le Pen, which is against the overthrow of Assad. And in the West already voices that a volley of Tomahawks is a political blow to Putin, who was unable to protect the ally. This opinion was expressed by former Minister of foreign Affairs of Sweden Carl Bildt.