“Visa serial” for Ukraine is nearing completion — in this Wednesday, April 5, the European Parliament finally hold a debate on the liberalization of the visa regime between Ukraine and the EU, and 6 April is to vote on this issue. “Today” has analyzed two possible scenarios of development of events after the vote.
ALL WILL BE WELL. To Ukrainians finally were able to travel to Europe without a “Schengen”, to give the green light to the bill is 376 out of 751 members of the European Parliament. The vote is the most difficult and important step in the process, but the procedure is the same for the EU Council, which must review and approve the Ukrainian question already in the may 11 meeting. The next step is publication in the official journal of Evrosouza, then within 20 days the law comes into force. This means that Ukrainians with biometric passports will be able without a visa to enjoy all the benefits of the Eurozone with korotkometrazhnyh travel (up to 90 days) from mid-June. According to experts, this scenario is most likely.
“To suppress the positive outcome of the vote can only be some kind of emergency. In all other respects we have fulfilled all the conditions and delays must be stopped, — said political analyst Vadim Karasev. — So, as the decision of the EU Council is a purely formal event, something of ratification, already in June we will travel without visas. However, there is another thing: on the border-you can still request and your hotel, and tickets, and insurance. But still not so bad wolf: checks are likely to be very selective”.
IT’S ALL GONE. However, some experts fear that the perfect image bezveza can spoil political scandals of reforms in Ukraine — for example, e-Declaration. Rumor has it that because of this our bezviz can even migrate from the agenda.
“This can happen only if there is some urgent, immediate issues. In all other cases this is not possible, because the European Parliament is several orders of magnitude more disciplined than, for example, BP, the inclusion of the issue in the agenda does not mean that it will consider, — the Director of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic cooperation Oleksandr Sushko. — Thus for the outcome of the vote is also no need to worry: eurosceptics in the EP is not more than 15%”.
But there is always the option of a negative decision on the Ukrainian question. “If the European Parliament do not vote, it will be a big political scandal, but the Ukrainians will have to continue to travel on visas, and there is nothing that can be done,” Karasev said.
But political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko suggests that risks may exist already at the stage of negotiation in the EU Council. “If a month will be a major political force majeure, it may affect the political will of some EU countries or add bureaucratic hitch”.