The ruble was trading to the downside and a significant part of Monday, because no significant sales of export proceeds alone high interest rates and relatively high oil prices not enough to sustain its continuous growth after the tax period.
The market hardly reacted to the information about the explosion in the St. Petersburg metro with casualties, but rates still remain near multi-month peaks.
In the opinion of the dealer of a major Russian Bank, such local currency market can be caused by the fact that the explosion is not yet declared officially a terrorist attack, as well as by the presence in Petersburg of Vladimir Putin, “and so — it is in his control.”
To 17.15 MSK quotes pair dollar/ruble calculations “tomorrow” was near 56,33, 5 cents above Friday’s close.
This morning the dollar declined to the level of 55,93 of the ruble, which is close to the best for the Russian currency values from 3 July 2015 55,85 made on Friday. The upper boundary of the trading range speaker mark 56,47.
The Euro calculations “tomorrow” was to 17.15 MSK at the level of 60.14 of the ruble, and the ruble loses 18 cents since the beginning of the day.
According to analysts of Bank of St. Petersburg, the ruble remains overbought, relative to the fundamental values of 6-8%. “At the end of the coming week expect growth of dollar to a region 57-58 rubles”, — said they.
According to Denis Davydov from Nordea Bank, the short-term range for the pair dollar/ruble 56-57, and the development of positive dynamics of oil he’s expecting new highs on the ruble, while a strong resistance level Davydov calls the level of 54 rubles per dollar.
Now Brent crude is trading near the highest since March 9 at $53,68 reached early in the day because of expectations of a possible extension of the global oil of the Covenant, when this limiting factor is the increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States. Quotes the front of the Brent futures — $of 53.41 (-0,2%).
Support the ruble remains high ruble interest rates, still attractive to foreign investors after the fed’s policy tightening and the easing of the CBR, at the same time, market participants noted low demand for foreign currency from both the public and from importers. The nominal volume of external debt payments in April, together with interest — about $10 billion, according to the CBR, which is below the nominal volume of March, which is close to $16 billion with interest.
The previous tax period ended last Tuesday, and at the beginning of the calendar month, the exporters traditionally reduce the sale of foreign currency earnings for rubles.
In the current month of its physical volumes may be reduced (including time lag), since Russia has fulfilled its obligations under the Pact OPEC+ reduction of oil production, the cost of which since the beginning of March and went down after relatively stable prices in January-February.
In Forex the dollar depreciates against the Euro by a quarter percent, quotes from $1,0677, but retains a small plus against a basket of 6 currencies, arenivas 100,46 points.