Course 30: experts explain what will happen to the dollar in April

Selling rate of non-cash dollar in Ukraine in March fell by 0.4% to 27.1 UAH, cash – by 0.2% to 27.08 UAH. Such data “Today” provided the information-analytical center Forex club in Ukraine.

According to analysts, control of the NBU for liquidity, control speculation and inflow of foreign currency into the country against the background of seasonal plant currency farmers became main factors of strengthening the hryvnia.

“Moreover, the inflow of foreign currency is steadily covers the existing demand, which grew because of the trade embargo ORDO, the outflow of hryvnia Russian banks, uncertainty regarding the next tranche of the IMF loan,” the analysts said.

According to experts, the hryvnia exchange rate in the cash market in April can be in the range of 27 – 29,5 UAH per dollar, at the market clearing and 26.9 – 29 UAH. However, in the case of a negative scenario associated with reduced activity of farmers, with falling exports and commodity prices, the rate can go into the higher price range is 28.5 – 30.5 UAH per dollar.

In the optimistic development that assumes favourable seasonal factors, the receipt of IMF tranche and the recovery of commodity prices, the cash rate will probably remain within the boundaries 26,9 – 27,5 USD per dollar.

The seasonal factor continues to support the hryvnia, since the beginning of spring is the period when farmers make to the country currency for the sowing campaign, which greatly supports the supply of currency in the market. But the pressure on the hryvnia may intensify in the beginning of the month due to purchase of currency for dividends by non-residents. Thus, minor fluctuations can be observed on 14 and 17 April, weekend in the United States and Ukraine, analysts say.

“The adverse price trends in external markets, the main export areas, can strengthen its influence on the currency market. In particular, futures contracts on iron ore in March was down more than 12%, on wheat and corn by 6.2% and 5.8%, respectively. The cost of steel products fell by 2-10%, sunflower oil – by 3.1%. There is therefore a risk of reducing the inflow of foreign currency in 90 million dollars a month. In addition, trade embargoes and nationalization of Ukrainian enterprises in areas outside the control keep the impact on the currency market, limiting export activity of mining and metallurgical complex and increasing import”, – said a senior analyst at GK Forex club Andrey Shevchishin.

Speculative pressure on the market can provide and the decision of the London court of repayment of Ukraine’s debt to Russia on Eurobonds in the amount of $ 3 billion. And although the decision is appealed, according to Shevchishin, it is likely that these obligations will have to repay. And if liabilities will be appointed in 2017, pressure on the hryvnia will increase and the currency can lose up to 3 hryvnia on the dollar.

“The issue of resumption of IMF cooperation remains open. The allocation of Ukraine tranche in the amount of $ 1 billion will also bring 600 million euros from the European Union. The receipt of these funds will significantly weaken the speculative pressure on the exchange rate, and will form a reserve to cover the increasing demand”, – the expert believes.

The average selling rate of cash Euro in Ukraine on the basis of the baseline scenario can vary in the range of 28.5 – and 31.5 UAH.

The range of fluctuations of the selling rate of cash ruble in March can range 0,45 – 0,51 UAH.