Easter truce: whether to wait in the Donbass silence

On Easter eve of the Trilateral contact group agreed on the complete ceasefire in the Donbas, which will come into force on 1 April 2017. Petro Poroshenko has instructed the leadership of the army. In addition, from April 1 to memorial day, the planned acceleration of procedure of crossing of the line of contact, in particular, it is planned to extend the work of the checkpoints in the morning and evening hours. Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak has said that Ukraine is ready to the beginning of the truce in the area ATO, but will defend the position in case of threat of life of the Ukrainian military. Whether hopes for a cease-fire by militants, “Apostrophe” says the coordinator of group “Information resistance” Dmitry Tymchuk.

Hard to believe that this time in the Donbas there was a lull. Pessimistic predictions are justified by the logic of the negotiations on 29 March in Minsk, although the details we can know “on the side” and not from our representatives.

Do talk about a truce from April 1 until Easter will look ridiculous and absurd. Given the experience, after a couple of days there may be some de-escalation when together 70 attacks will be 40. But by Easter all will return to their original positions, by the format we see now. I would, of course, be wrong, and that the ceasefire finally worked. But no prerequisites, unfortunately, we do not see. Russian troops are no preparatory activities in the last few days was not performed.

From the Ukrainian side is already the order of the Supreme commander of the APU, the President of Ukraine on ceasefire from April 1. But with fighters we don’t see it, was just a political statement. The experience of past years shows that, on the contrary, during large feasts “of the Lord Orthodox” on the other hand love to annoy us with their shelling.

If you follow the logic of the process of freezing the conflict in Donbas, created the preconditions for the remission of the conflict. However, those real events that we see, suggests that Russian troops are getting ready for the continuation of the conflict. One thing the logic of conflict and the other action. Here we once again see that the Kremlin is not compatible with the logic. They also allow for the scenario in which there is an attempt to overthrow the “Kiev junta”, to deliver to his loyal guide to these representatives entered the Parliament and the Executive.

Now many people use the argument that war need only the Ukrainian authorities. It is significant that such statements do not only opposition blocs and pronounced “fifth column” of the Kremlin in Ukraine, but the forces that position themselves as Patriotic, are beginning to pick up this slogan. This is the loosening of the situation. Now clear the goal of Putin. Ukraine has already everything start to say — and here Putin, then everything is like clockwork, it makes sense to continue the conflict, despite the Transnistrian scenario.

For a political settlement of the conflict we don’t yet have the prerequisites. There are the Minsk agreements that have no legal force. These agreements are not ratified by the Ukrainian Parliament, but ratified by the resolution of the UN security Council from 2015. This gives them strength. But since at a lower level, no confirmation of legal force these documents do not have, we need a legal framework for the Minsk process. This, of course, it had to be done in 2015. It is from here there is a discussion of the law on occupied territories. We do not have our “peace plan” is incomprehensible to the Minsk agreement, which, sadly, is enshrined in UN security Council resolution.