I hasten to inform you, dear reader, that this dilemma for Nagorno-Karabakh anymore. I ask this question to you, reader: “War or peace?”, and you, in turn, debrief their friends, relatives, acquaintances. I don’t think that your going to get a clear answer. In the best case, some of the respondents (perhaps most) will vote for war, and less for the world. However, it may happen that everything will be just the opposite. After all, among other things, is a matter of mood. And it is the mood — a thing changeable. And now it has no significant value.
The war virtually eliminated
And the world, too. So, we approached a situation something similar to the ending of the First world war, when no one wanted to die, but it was not the will and to the world. No matter how many times the Armenians fired on the Azerbaijani territory, on the contrary, the war is practically impossible. Peace is possible, although it suits Armenia for the simple reason that the goal that she had set themselves in General achieved. Being friendly to Azerbaijan, a country with whom relations enshrined in the Union Treaty, Armenia provoked a war with the aim of exclusion of territories from Azerbaijan and quite succeeded in the implementation of their undisguised intentions. Allow me, my dear compatriots, in this regard, to recall that it happened with the direct political and military support to another ally of Azerbaijan on the Treaty on the establishment of the USSR — the Russian Federation, as with the unconcealed sympathies of the USA, EU members. Nothing new in this story in General, no, our world has seen far more cowardly treason and betrayal. Confused only one thing — legal. Both Russia and the United States, and the EU does not argue now with the fact that Armenia and supported the state acted contrary to international law. It was and still is on Azerbaijan’s side.
Since then a lot has happened, much has changed in this infinitely vile world. Jacques Chirac as President of France, arrived in Baku, where he achieved an understanding with the growing oil Republic, responding to a question from local journalist about how it happened, found it possible innocently to note: “We (i.e. Armenians — R. A.) know 200 years, and first met not so long ago”. A difficult task asked, but the Azerbaijani politicians Jacques Chirac. You can certainly trust the word of French President, to be patient and wait, say 200 years. Moreover, almost a quarter of a century from the promised date has passed. But from the point of view of Azerbaijan that peace would be to agree with the robbery, which was made by Armenia and it would be logical if it is in full compliance with international laws left the occupied territory, after which it would be possible to talk about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, and other issues. Armenia does not wish to follow existing international law and world order. The result is involuntarily the question that was asked by the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev USA and the EU.
“After the annexation of Crimea by Russia was subject to sanctions. But why in the case of Armenia, annexed also to the whole area and the adjacent seven districts (almost 20 percent of the total territory of Azerbaijan), the West does not consider it necessary to press on Armenia with sanctions?”
The question was asked three years ago, the answer neither from Brussels nor Washington yet. It turns out that Azerbaijan does not remain anything else how to declare: we do not need a world!
“Wait, say 200 years…”
Here all those who helped or encouraged, sympathized with the expansionist policy of Armenia, which not only does not return the occupied territory, but continues to claim the lands of the sovereign countries of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, accepted to persuade Azerbaijan to be patient and Yerevan hinted that maybe it makes sense to show compliance. Not to regain the power seized land, and so to talk about it, to try to achieve mutual understanding or something like that. A strange thing happens: the US and the EU are ready to starve Russia out of the Crimea, which in 1954 was transferred to the Ukraine only for the reason of improving socio-economic conditions of the latter. Despite the fact that ethnic Ukrainians, who constitute a large percentage of the population of the Peninsula, as they lived and continue to live there. But Yerevan for unleashing the war that gave rise to explosive hearth, threatening the entire South Caucasus region, no one wants to even blame. As for the fact that the policy conflicts, conducted by Armenia is the main obstacle in the economic development of the entire South Caucasus region, establishment of atmosphere of peace, cooperation and stability.
This Baku makes one neoprovergaemy conclusion: neither Moscow nor Brussels, nor Washington will allow Azerbaijan by force to return to its ancestral lands. In other words, to cooperate, to pump oil and gas from Azerbaijan, that the Europeans did not polymersase in the cold — please. But to help Azerbaijan in its rightful claims to the aggressive and presumptuous neighbor is not easy. You need to think. And it can really be patient and forget about the occupation commercials for two hundred years? Please note: Azerbaijanis say — word for word — the same as a few years ago of Turkey in relation to accession to the EU — come to the third Millennium…
We will not bore the reader with the enumeration of the reasons for this neglect of international law. And it’s not only and not so much in Christian solidarity, but in the political selfishness of the powerful. Please note — no one in the West not a single word is not reproached Moscow in a clear pandering to the aggressive plans of his ally from 1988 to the present day. From what we can conclude about the coincidence of interests of the great powers in the unresolved conflict in the South Caucasus. Due to conflicting parties went to the other extreme and was included in the very real arms race. The lion’s share of oil revenues of Azerbaijan devour the purchase of weapons, which made the Republic a major player in the region. But Armenia there, after Azerbaijan. But what is becoming of Baku’s petrodollars, Yerevan is forced to borrow.
And how long will this arms race? The richest of the Soviet Union the same contest was able to withstand about 20 years. The Soviet Union would not collapse if it were not for the betrayal of the hump, but because he was somehow special nice to the Soviet people that stopped this insane waste of national resources that defines truly great people on starvation rations. Judging by the next explosion of dissent and intrigue among the authorities in Armenia are increasingly thinking about the fact that he was forced to openly say Ilham Aliyev in Paris: “If you’re so smart, why are you so poor?”.
The third alternative
So, the developments summed up the two countries to a situation of “neither peace nor war”. Obviously, the choice of Armenia. Despite the obvious futility of the situation, strategically Azerbaijan is in a better position. Not so long ago the Azerbaijani President has opened the country’s financial situation: Azerbaijan’s currency reserves exceed external debt five times. He did this after returning from Paris, and it is not a coincidence. During talks with Hollande sufficiently expressive was suggested that the unresolved status of the issue is entirely vicious c installation of Yerevan to keep in whatever was the status quo on Karabakh.
“However, the heads of the countries-intermediaries of the negotiating process on the Karabakh conflict have repeatedly stated that the status quo needs to be changed”,- reminds the Azerbaijani President.
This implies that in the continuation of its policy of preserving the existing status-quo Armenia will find itself in another trap, and as always — on his own initiative. Azerbaijan can easily take advantage of this to increasing armaments, to continue implementation of social programs. Thus, Baku gets a kind of carte Blanche for tighter economic blockades of the enemy. Moreover, the Azerbaijani side will demand sanctions against the aggressor and in this respect legal restrictions such as those that began to apply to the illegal self-appointed visits to Artsakh. At desire it is possible to develop a set of forced sanctions measures, in short, to develop a long-term policy of isolation sargarovschi mode. Such a strategy “Without war and without peace,” politically justified, promises understanding of the international community and opportunities to encourage him to greater activity in the peaceful settlement of the decades-old conflict.
Is not this meant the President, explaining to his French counterpart the futility of the position taken by Armenia? He made it clear that the policy of pandering to the aggressor, the policy of double standards must end. And it’s not just the lack of “enforcement mechanisms and the implementation of resolutions adopted by leading international organizations, including the UN.”
Unfortunately, “double standards become the norm when the norms and principles of international law are presented in different ways and serve narrow interests,” the President said. And Azerbaijan is not going to put up with it.
So, the tough stance of Azerbaijan welcomes the understanding in all major capitals. So Hollande explicitly stated that “the status quo is unacceptable.” He agrees with the fact that the existing situation should be changed as soon as possible, in order to undertake the final settlement of the conflict.
There are certain signs that saltanovsky regime, for all its bellicose rhetoric, would prefer still a compromise solution. Variety of sources of information to confirm this opinion. New strategy of Azerbaijan is aimed at resource depletion and of the potential of Armenia to the resistance is called upon for a speedy understanding of the depravity of the policy adopted by her extremist forces. It seems to have become to understand in the West. Like in the next 5-10 years not developed the internal political situation in Armenia, observable signs of sobering up in society give reason to believe that the chances are quite serious, to speed up the process. In short, the resulting situation is neither peace nor war for Azerbaijan creates more room for maneuvering. And most importantly — to make such adjustments in its strategy, which could be bloodless to bring the parties to change the status quo.