IMF tranche postponed again: what will happen to the dollar

The allocation of the next IMF tranche to Ukraine again postponed indefinitely. Yesterday, this question is scheduled for consideration on March 20, disappeared from the agenda of the meetings of the Board of Directors of the Fund. Finanalytica talking about some force majeure. Meanwhile, the hryvnia in recent days has again started creeping to fade, down for the week to the dollar on average by 10 kopecks., or to 27.1 UAH/$ in a cash sale. “Today” figured out why the IMF has postponed the “Ukrainian question” and what will happen with the hryvnia exchange rate until the summer.

TRANCHE. On the website of the IMF agenda painted before 24 March and Ukraine in it, although a couple of days ago was. The Minister of Finance of Ukraine Alexander danyluk explained it by technical reasons. “The postponement was due solely to the need to clarify calculations of the economic consequences of the measures taken by Ukraine in response to the blockade, the seizure of Ukrainian enterprises in uncontrolled territories, and also in connection with the recognition by the Russian side of the documents issued in these areas”, — said danyluk. According to him, the consultations with the IMF will be completed in a short time. The voices of experts and other occasions. So, managing Director of Belgrade Igor Lvov said that the blockade is indeed a force majeure, which requires recalculation of macroeconomic indicators. “We need time to make adjustments to the budget figures, after which tranche ($1-1. 5 billion) will provide, believes the lions. But there’s also another cause: the government have not decided whether to begin from 2018 incretory, which insists the IMF.”

The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko connects delay issuing a loan to us with the meeting between U.S. President Donald trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel: “From the point of view of the economy the IMF has no objection, but politics intervened. Is an image credit, which our government is needed as a demonstration of success”.

DOLLAR. Both finanalytica say that the lack of a tranche is not much, but the effect on the hryvnia exchange rate. The reason for the weakening of that now hryvnia more expensive than it should be “according to plan”, so it is omitted. “The Memorandum with the IMF recorded an average annual clearing rate of 27.2 UAH/$, at the interbank rate of 26.9, because of the growth in January industrial production down 6%,the country now receives more foreign currency, says lions. — The national Bank began to actively buy in reserves, causing the dollar went up. By summer it is expected 27,1—27,2 UAH/$ on the interbank market, or up to 28 UAH in the exchanger”.

Okhrimenko said that the national Bank, the hryvnia cheaper than ever, “helps” Cabinet to fill the budget. “This year, traditional summer devaluation of the dollar may not be, on the contrary, he will gradually continue to strengthen, says Okhrimenko. — Now on the interbank currency surplus, but the offer is reduced, and in April the deficit may be. The most likely course until the summer — 28 UAH/$, if there is no political upheavals, such as the preparation for early elections of Rada. Otherwise, you might jump to 30 UAH/$”.