Never before has the Netherlands with a population of 15 million people has not attracted as much attention to his election, as it is now. After the “Breccia” and the victory of Donald trump, the world is watching intently to see where the protesters voices will win another amazing win. Chance the supporters of change in established political orders already gives today’s vote, which will determine the names of the 150 Dutch MPs.
1. Wilders Win?
The chances to win the election continue to have the protest of the freedom Party — first of all, its sole member and that clear leader Geert Wilders. Platinum blonde may become the first representative of the protest parties that won the most votes in the parliamentary elections in one of the well-established democracies. In the politics of his party, Wilders relies almost exclusively on criticism of Islam and migration from Muslim countries. But in recent weeks, judging by the polls, his popularity declined, and before the elections it was around Prime Minister mark Rutte with his liberal-conservative people’s party for freedom and democracy.
Given a certain statistical error, the fight for the leading position in the elections is still relevant, after all, his goalscoring and the opposition Christian Democrats.
2. What Wilders is betting?
Most of us imagine relaxed Netherlands the country of tulips, where a tolerant multiculturalism thrives and where people come for recreational drugs. But lately, everything changed. The country is very changed mood, and many believe this is just a consequence of the rise of Geert Wilders. However, the truth is that in the past the Netherlands too widely opened the doors to migrants, the majority of citizens, the number of immigrants started to bother. For example, there are approximately 400 thousand people of Turkish origin, and Moroccan minority is even more numerous.
3. Who is going to help the “Turkish weekend”?
Several Dutch politicians played into the hands of the Turkish Ministers attempted to persuade their countrymen living in the Netherlands, before the April constitutional referendum in Turkey, despite the clear prohibition of the government of the Netherlands. Rather, the policy of Erdogan will add votes not only criticism of anything Islamic Wilders, but Rutte and the Prime Minister, since he has decided not to allow the Turkish government to put pressure on the Netherlands.
4. Will the Turks in the Parliament?
A party that can extract the most benefit from the differences with Turkey, paradoxically, is a new small batch DENK, which in Dutch means “to think”, and in Turkish — “unity”. This game created by two former deputies of Turkish origin to represent the former immigrants — mainly from Turkey. So the Netherlands may become the first Western country in which elections result in a Parliament party, relying exclusively on the voices of migrants. Polls show high chances of the representatives of the party of immigrants to enter the Parliament.
5. How many parties will have to unite against Wilders?
Even if Wilders wins, most likely, in the government, he will not fall, because its rating amid disparate colleagues in the election campaign reaches approximately 15% in addition to the pensioners ‘ party waives all coalition with them. But Wilders shouldn’t be upset, because after the elections to unite against him have four or even five parties of the mainstream right and left. Unstable coalition will be an easy target and is a popular thesis Wilders that he United all against the “old structure”.
6. Success will be achieved by animals, seniors or pirates?
In the Netherlands, there is no interest border for entry into the Parliament, so the local parliamentary left wing is traditionally very mixed. There is, for example, representatives of Party animals — perhaps the only party which is strong throughout Europe. One of the few points of the program of this party is to protect animals. The results indicate that party “50 Plus” will confirm its status as one of the strongest parties in the world seniors. One parliamentary mandate now also claimed by the local pirates, and chair will definitely get parties deeply religious Protestants, one of whom is so conservative that she refuses to accept the members of the woman.