During a recent meeting with the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin, U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson stated that “Washington will continue to support Kiev”, and the sanctions against Russia will remain in force. Soon thereafter America for the first time openly accused Russia of placing land-based missiles, which violate a signed 30 years ago the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF). The Kremlin immediately denied allegations of breach of contract. In the latest issue of the American magazine Foreign Policy says that Russia and America went back to rivalry in the middle East…. After trump came into the powers of the President, quickly arose a judgment about the beginning of “a new era in Russian-American relations” gradually began to subside. In this situation you must again carefully consider the possible directions of development of Russian-American relations.
Erupted in early 2014 Ukrainian crisis and its aftermath have resulted in Russian-American relations have come to the most serious crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After three years of debate and controversy January 20, 2017, the 45th President of the United States officially became a business tycoon Donald trump. He repeatedly condemned the actions of American politicians, their contempt for foreign policy interests of Russia and openly expressed personal affection for Putin. A significant part of all segments of the population is of the view that demonstrating the aversion to humanitarian intervention and democratic construction of trump can’t be the height of morality to specify Russia to the shortcomings of its domestic and foreign policy, and will be on an equal footing to carry on with her pragmatic dialogue. The active position of Russia and America suggests the assumptions about the reconciliation between the two parties.
However, this view is not so much hope, how much the prediction, because the “Pro” position of the trump does not directly lead to peaceful relations between America and Russia. The prerequisite for this reasoning is the need to simultaneously consider the objective and subjective factors. There are several key questions that you must answer is whether trump has Pro-Russian views? Can trump, as intended, to engage in dialogue with Putin? Whether Russia and America to achieve mutual understanding on issues that have a decisive impact on bilateral relations?
Of course, if one of the parties wants to establish bilateral relations, it is about improving and not talking. So Vistadome questions are based on the assumption that the Kremlin’s desire to establish a relationship.
Dialogue is possible, but hopes for a peace agreement no
If you look at American history, trump seems traditional and at the same time, quite an unusual President. Traditional it can be called because of his foreign policy aims to match foreign ideas of isolationism and exceptionalism that had existed since the founding of the United States in 1776 to the present day, not the post-war “internationalism” established after the cold war. After the Second world war in the context of the plight of Europe’s geopolitical and ideological confrontation between the USA and the USSR America has become to carry the banner of the so-called “free world”, which only after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, has become the despotism of a unipolar world that has lasted for more than 20 years.
Trump from its predecessors, held the post of President of the United States after the Cold war, distinguishes the status of the businessman, and his pomp, brightness, tenacity and “figures of speech” that characterize a successful businessman. His statements that “America is not so innocent” on the one hand reflect his character, and on the other hand show that it differs from the usual “politicians”.
In fact, a positive attitude trump for Russia and Putin is fully consistent with his main political idea “let’s Make America great again”. According to trump, the split in Russian-American relations does not correspond to natural interests of America, but the praise of Putin is only the recognition of the leader from the point of view of real politics, economy and geopolitics, which placed above all national interests. Pro-Russian sentiment trump come from his desire to satisfy the interests of America, so in the near future the improvement of Russian-American relations should begin with a precise definition of the word “dialogue” rather than “reconciliation”.
Despite this, even if trump has a personal desire to develop Russian-American relations, American government and political situation limit the drastic and decisive action trump foreign policy. During the election campaign, many candidates could condemn the foreign policy of its predecessors, by promoting a completely new idea. However, once in the Oval office of the White house, the politician still inclined to the line of succession of the foreign policy, very different from his pre-election controversy.
On the one hand, the bureaucracy has a powerful force. It gives the President a lot of information and offers a choice of political decisions. It is a necessary assistant and support for the President. On the other hand, the introduction of serious changes in foreign policy to the newly elected President is unlikely to meet with approval and support among the population, which wants to keep the old structure of unions.
The greatest threat to the administration trump comes not from international politics but from within. After only a month as President, trump already has a serious conflict with the bureaucracy. The legitimacy of his election is being questioned because of the scandal with the national security Advisor, Michael Flynn, and even after the resignation of Flynn, the debate does not cease.
At the same time, economic policies trump needs to change the correlation of forces and monetary relations within the country. Resistance to this process may become a serious obstacle on the Board of trump. In addition, who supported trump’s voters mainly hoped to resolve the internal problems of the welfare population that does not necessarily mean that they support his foreign policy. So much for trump the priority of internal problems, and until he can find a proper way to solve them, it is unwise to make sudden turns in international Affairs.
Russian-American “deal”: the weighted score and the zero-sum game
Business the past and realistic perspectives on international politics give diplomacy trump the character of a “tactical transaction”. His dialogue with Putin demonstrates a classical exchange of interests. This means that the interests of both parties and the ability to meet the needs of the opposite side will determine the progress and results of this transaction.
Trump needs to “make America great again”. And the resolution of some international problems in cooperation with Russia is part of that slogan.
First, for America it is essential to create a stable and safe domestic and international environment. To do this, it should strengthen cooperation with Russia to combat terrorism. Russia’s participation will help at a lower cost to achieve good results in the extermination of radical Islam. If trump wants to pull America out of the quagmire of the Syrian war, it is necessary to reach agreement with Russia.
Secondly, the United States also needs the cooperation with Russia in the spheres of nuclear non-proliferation and arms control. Russia being a strong nuclear and military power and also having a significant voice and great influence in the negotiations on Iran and the Korean Peninsula, can greatly affect America’s national security interests and international security.
Thirdly, America needs to reach an understanding with Russia in the field of international cybersecurity, and come to the system with international norms of conduct in the global Internet space. The US has repeatedly accused Russia of hacking attacks and the threats to its national interests.
Fourth, it is important to strengthen the stabilizing role of Russia in Sino-American relations of competition and cooperation. Trump has denounced the “ignorant actions” of the Obama administration, which has pushed Russia and China into the camp of opposing America. This means that he will try to avoid repeating this error. At the same time cooperation and competition between China and America, which are mainly concentrated in trade-economic sphere and the issues of model development, Russia needs to balance the rise of China in Central Asia.
As for Putin, his task is quite clear and emanate from dissatisfaction with the state in the international arena. This dissatisfaction festered since the collapse of the Soviet Union and emerged in 2014 during the Ukrainian crisis. Putin wants the international community aware of the realities of the Ukrainian problem and recognize the occurrence of Crimea to Russia a fait accompli. Also important is the abolition of anti-Russian economic sanctions, recognition of its place on the world stage and a dialogue with America on equal terms. America should not interfere in the internal Affairs of Russia with high position “free democracy”, especially during the upcoming presidential elections.
Thus, it is possible to see that Russia and America have no common interests. Their foreign policy courses in the implementation of policies, threat assessment and problem perception diverge. Russia, however, various ways can to a certain extent to meet the demands of America. But if America and Russia can reach agreement on the above issues, then Russia will be able to translate their aspirations for greater international prestige and the maintenance of peaceful and equitable dialogue with the United States.
However, Russian-American cooperation largely depends on resolving the Ukrainian problem and what consequences it entailed, and this is a zero-sum game. Irreversibility the fact that Crimea became part of Russia, leads to severe security situation in Russia and Europe, close to the period of the cold war. If trump has weakened the Ukrainian crisis and established relations with Russia, it would inevitably lead to weakening the influence of America in Europe and NATO, to the extent that he will have to forfeit its allies and values “the free world”. Not to mention the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions and the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. Russia will not be able to play in the Ukrainian crisis as the resulting problems are already under control. Besides, Russia is quite satisfied with the dissolution of the Union with Europe and break strong us-European relations. There is hardly a single agreement in the Ukrainian problem.