The main threat is the escalating of the Russian military exercises

Polskie Radio: Fund name Pulaski has prepared a war game recently in which on the computer model simulated the possible options of conflict in our region. Scenario games are classified. To participate in it invited leading NATO generals, particularly former chief of the United armed forces of NATO in Europe Philip Breedlove (Philip M. Breedlove). It’s a sign how great is the danger?


Zbigniew Pisarski: the Situation in recent years in Ukraine, in Syria, hybrid threats, which they say the Baltic States: how does it call, war or crisis, just a matter of choice of words. Recently the EU and NATO feel that threats are increasing, they are knocking on our door. We need to treat them with the utmost seriousness.


We are very pleased that among the participants of the game were such guests as Philip Breedlove and other top-ranking NATO generals. They have a huge knowledge. I hope that the Polish participants were able to play the benefit and better understand the situation. The conclusions to be made on the basis of these teachings will remain secret, but they will introduce Polish military and political leaders.


The focus of security experts is Russia. This is natural, because she is often (in several regions) assumes the role of aggressor.


— I am convinced that Russia has become a major threat to our region in military, political and information field. We have plenty of evidence that she deliberately committed to its weakening and destabilization.


The Russian side uses subtle rhetoric. The Russians, of course, deny everything and say they are guided by good intentions that Russian troops anywhere, but there is only green men. Politicians very often don’t hurry to admit that for those or other actions is Russia, because in this case they would have to react, and then be responsible for their steps. We would have to make concrete decisions about response. Politicians in many European countries in NATO don’t have the courage. We lack leaders who are able to point appeared on the part of Russia threat, and then to put her barrier.


I hope that the increase in the number of American and other allied troops in Central and Eastern Europe will be a clear signal that will cause Moscow to think about. This is perhaps the only language which is understood by the Kremlin’s policy.


The increase in threats associated with specific steps of Russia. It is the actions that are associated with high costs: it places a division at the border with Ukraine and missiles in the Kaliningrad region, increase the defense budget.


— The main danger that threatens this part of Europe from Russia, connected with the escalation of military exercises. From the available data it can be concluded that the maneuvers “West-2017” will surpass in scale the same maneuvers 2013. The Russians ordered 4,000 cars to transport equipment to Belarus.


These are only press reports?


— Not only. About all the sources of information of course, I can’t tell you. The situation is quite clear. Russia’s actions in Syria were aimed at a stabilization, which it sees the West, they were designed to strengthen the position of Bashar al-Assad. The presence of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine leaves no doubt. We are talking here about facts, not guesses who is behind it all. We have already overcome the stage where just trying to understand the intentions of Russia. The facts clearly have shown them to us. It is sufficient to ask the representatives of the Baltic States or even some time Sweden, which attacks exposed their strategic infrastructure. This specific data.


The headquarters of the NATO, some days it registers a few dozen cyber attacks. A deliberate action, the purpose of which is to access the communication infrastructure of the Alliance.


So we’re talking about real operations against NATO, which is the main guarantor of Poland’s security (especially against the background of our bilateral cooperation with the United States). If we fool ourselves, pretending that the threat does not exist, would come from even greater danger.


The strengthening of the Russian military potential as a result of planned actions or circumstances to bring us even more anxiety symptoms or events. What can you say about the possible scenarios?


Strategy of Russia towards the EU has long been known. At the conference in Munich in 2007, President Vladimir Putin essentially said that Moscow considers NATO an enemy. This approach is reflected in the actions. Starting with Georgia in 2008 and ending with Crimea, Donbass and Syria, Russia has shown that it is committed to a policy that, on the one hand, aims to strengthen its international position and to force to subdue the countries of the former Soviet Union.


A special concern is the fact that the scenarios of military exercises of Russia previous years later exactly repeated in the actions of Russian forces in the Donbass. Exercises “West-2017” of concern including the fact that they will be much more ambitious than the previous one.


Lessons on the teachings of experience is used in the Donbass?


— We are talking about the deployment of troops, the tactics used by the Russians in the attack on the Donbass. It was those techniques that have previously worked out on maneuvers. Fortunately, the exercises “West-2017” will coincide with the planned rotation of U.S. forces in Poland and the Baltic States. This means that throughout the month on our territory will be twice more military.