The leaders of the US and the EU allow the unfortunate mistake of assuming that Putin’s Russia can become an ally in the fight against “Islamic state” (banned in Russia organization — approx. TRANS.). The facts refute their point of view. Putin’s goal is to contribute to the collapse of the European Union, and to achieve this the fastest he can, flooding Europe with Syrian refugees.
Russian planes bombed the civilian population in the South of Syria, forcing him to flee to Jordan and Lebanon. Today in the desert on the border with Jordan, waiting for permission to enter has accumulated 20 thousand Syrian refugees. A little less waiting in line to get into Lebanon. And refugees there are more.
Russia also gets massive air strikes on civilians in Northern Syria. And the army of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad conducted the attack on the city of Aleppo, where more than two million people. Explosions, barrel bombs made 70 thousand innocent Syrians to flee to neighboring Turkey. In the case of continued ground assaults of refugees will be much more.
Traveling families may not stay in Turkey, and move on. This week German Chancellor Angela Merkel went to Ankara to hastily negotiate with Turkish authorities on the extension of the term of stay in Turkey, refugees who are already there. She offered annually transported directly to Europe 200-300 thousand Syrian refugees under the condition that Turkey will not let them in Greece and will take them back if they still can move in.
Putin is a talented tactician, but strategically he doesn’t know how. There is reason to believe that intervention in Syria he began to exacerbate the refugee crisis in Europe. In fact, this intervention has become a strategic miscalculation, as Putin had a conflict with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that went to the detriment of the interests of both countries.
But when Putin saw the opportunity to accelerate the disintegration of the EU, he jumped at it. He disguises his actions by talking about cooperation against the common enemy of ISIS. The same approach he applies in Ukraine, having signed the Minsk agreement, but without conditions.
It is difficult to understand why the US government and the EU believe Putin is on the floor instead judge him by his actions. The only explanation I could find is that the democratic politicians try to calm the public, and to do this, paint a more positive picture than it really is. In fact, Putin’s Russia and the EU are in a race against time. The question is, who will collapse first.
In 2017, the Putin regime is facing bankruptcy, when the time comes to repay a significant part of external debt. But the political turmoil could start even earlier. The President’s popularity remains high, but it is based on the social contract, which requires that the government provide financial stability and slowly but surely raised the standard of living. Due to Western sanctions and the sharp fall in oil prices, the regime will not be able to do neither the first nor the second.
The budget deficit in Russia is seven percent of GDP, but the government will need to reduce it to three percent below inflation got out of control. In the social security Fund running out of money, and it will have to merge with the Foundation of public infrastructure that the money came from. These and other actions will negatively affect the living standards of the population and in the opinion of the electorate. Meanwhile, this fall Russia will hold parliamentary elections.
To avoid collapse of the Putin regime need to do so, that the EU has collapsed first. If the European Union starts to crumble, he can’t maintain the sanctions imposed against Russia after its invasion of Georgia. Putin will gain significant economic benefits, divided Europe and, using his connections with commercial circles and acting against EU parties, which he takes care.
With the existing state of Affairs of the EU will disintegrate. After the financial crisis of 2008 and the package of measures to save Greece, the EU could hardly get out of one crisis to another. Today, it is faced with five or six crises simultaneously, and it is for him too. As rightly predicted Merkel, the immigration crisis could destroy the European Union.
When a state or group of States is in mortal danger, leaders need to see the brutal truth, rather than trying to ignore it. In the race for the survival of the EU is competing with Putin’s Russia. ISIS is a threat to both, but this group should not be overestimated. The attacks of the jihadists of the terrorist organizations are terrible, but they pale in comparison to the threat emanating from Russia.
ISIS (and before him, al-Qaeda) to find out where the Achilles heel of Western civilization. Is the fear of death. They have learned to exploit this fear. Pumping in the West Islamophobia and encouraging society and the government treat Islam with suspicion, they hope to persuade young Muslims that alternatives to terrorism. When we understand the essence of this strategy is to find the antidote will be easy. It is not necessary to do what your enemy wants.
Confront coming from Putin’s Russia, the threat will be difficult. But if you do not recognize this threat, to deal with it is even more difficult.