On the border of clouds go sullenly: will Belarus to break away from Moscow

The conflict between Russia and Belarus escalates almost daily. Last Friday, the head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is 7 hours and spoke with representatives of the media and the public. During this “great conversation” there were a lot of claims to the Belarusian leader to the Russian leadership. In particular, Lukashenko angered the neighbours plans to install a border area in the border regions of Belarus, the Russian Federation, which became known literally on the eve of the event. Drama last betrayed, and published in some Russian media that the possible exit of Belarus from the EurAsEC, CSTO, and even the “Union state of Belarus and Russia”. Although the Belarusian experts believe that this “insight” is a fake, observers believe that the installation of boundary pillars and the outbreak of the Moscow anti-Belarusian information campaigns indicate an unprecedented crisis in bilateral relations and a major threat to Belarusian independence and sovereignty.

Full border

New round of picks between Minsk and Moscow happened on 1 February when it became known that the Director of FSB of Russia Alexander Bortnikov instructed to set the border zone in the border regions of Belarus, the Russian Federation. The appropriate orders were published on the portal of legal information. Them in Frontier service of FSB of the Russian Federation is mandated to “establish a place and time for entry (passage) of persons and vehicles in the border zone”, as well as set warning signs at the entrances to the border zone. However, the orders of the FSB Director dated: December 29, 2016 and registered in the Ministry of justice on 26 January 2017. At that time, the State border Committee of Belarus have not even had information about the plans of the Russians. The official explanation of the Moscow Lukashenko has established a visa-free entry to Belarus for citizens of 80 countries, Russia protects its space from possible penetration of illegal migrants.

However, Lukashenko last Friday, drawing attention to discrepancies in the date of signing of the relevant orders and the introduction of a visa-free regime, said that the decision of the Russian side on the establishment of the border zone is political. According to him, it is impossible to realize: “What is this border area of 30 km? I believe that this is a purely political attack. These mindless uncoordinated steps that only worsen our relationships, this can not be done! We need to go back. We have enough problems in Russia”. According to Lukashenko, Minsk did not close the border even after the terrorist attack in the Minsk metro, when, as the head of state, “Belarusians have got a phobia”. “We have a society already wary, but I the border is not closed. They who close the border today?” — asked the Belarusian leader.

Anyway, Belarusian observers believe that the days of opening up the borders between the components of the Union state in the past, and now we can only guess about why Russia took such a step and that will follow.

So, journalist Severin Kwiatkowski believes that the introduction of the border regime is of practical importance for Russia only in case if it plans to launch a full-scale economic war against Belarus: “in the Economic scheme of Lukashenko was very simple. Put simply, take in Russia by three, sell to the West five. Now, most likely, is preparing an economic blockade of the greater or lesser intensity. The goal is to force Belarus to play by the rules of the Kremlin. In particular, to allow the creation of Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus. In turn, this pressure will provoke a growing reversal of Belarus in the West”.

The leader of the solidarity Movement “Razam” Viachaslau Siuchyk said the increasing military risk. “The border should be the Belarusian side is to neutralize the danger of any “little green men” and promotion with Russia colon “atamatov”. Order Bortnikov increases the number of Russian security forces at the border. Increases the danger from the East”, — he said, “Apostrophes”.

Away from Moscow

Whatever it was, but the element of Moscow’s pressure on Minsk called Belarusians and information campaign against their country, which the Kremlin is already a few months. Link in the chain became common on 2 February, the Agency REGNUM, the information that Lukashenka intends to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, CSTO and maybe even of the “Union state”. This “news” was reprinted at the website of radio station “Echo of Moscow”.

Note that indirectly confirmed the possibility of such throw “away from Moscow!” during the “great conversation” and Lukashenko himself. In particular, about the Eurasian Union, the Belarusian leader said that he was ineffective, and membership in it is unprofitable to his country. “We thought that this Union would be on equal terms established. But now Belarus has lost $ 15 billion from the unequal prices. And now they gave us 5 billion credits. That is, we take 15 and give 5 a percentage. Enemies! Remember The “Dad-1, Dad-2″. How many of them? Four? Comes to insults! In NATO we do not go, there will be no war, but we will defend its independence. We are not destroyed, and they separated us. We do not have visa agreement with Russia, we pass through the country without a visa for whoever you want. It is not clear who they are, even terrorists.”

However, the Belarusian experts are sure that these words of the head of state figures of speech, and the information of REGNUM — fake.

Political analyst Vadim Kaznacheev said “Apostrophe” that announced the release of Belarus from the EurAsEC, CSTO and the Union state have dubbed Belexit (similar to Brexit): “I am Afraid, however, that here is wishful thinking. Can not exclude that some “source” which refers to the infamous REGNUM, started the information — is deliberately organised “leak”. Ahead of the meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin respectively, on the eve of another round of fights over oil and gas debts and discounts — this argument may well use, not even as a “frontal attack”, but there are supposedly at us such plans, in which case; we discussed it, you know.”

The real output of these structures Kaznacheeva seems unlikely. “Lukashenko can not, for example Ukraine, to break away from Russia and to direct the feet in Europe. And because of his own mentality, which he through the Soviet. For the reason that drastically would have to change not only the geopolitical orientation and public order, which “father” carefully builds for the third decade. The movement in Europe is incompatible with the dictatorship. The necessary economic and political reforms that will lead to the fact that the power of first person will not be unlimited and unchangeable. So I’m not inclined to deceive ourselves on this subject. Another thing is that today when he bitterly says: “Flying on one wing. Where he had arrived — also know… we Have no other choice but to develop multi-vector” is in this case probably true. Lukashenko, staying in the sphere of influence of the Kremlin, will, to the extent possible, to improve relations with the West,” he concluded.

Siuchyk adds that “use last “message” of the Agency REGNUM in the information war is a good illustration of the fact that in this conflict, all means are good”. “Let me remind you that the Agency REGNUM is a very specific edition, known for its belorussiaya. This circumstance led to the arrest of several authors. Russian Ambassador to Belarus Surikov, publicly supported the current government on this issue. The media has made his comments about the destructive nature of the activities of the arrested. Now fake REGNUM about Belarus’s withdrawal from all imposed by the Moscow “Union” is widely discussed. Without going into the Genesis of the emergence of this and other fakes, I note that their very existence is evidence that any unions with Russia is hopeless. Because the crisis. Because an uneasy feeling that the “allies” from the East to something. Of course, out of these unions of Belarus is necessary. But the entrance — ruble output — two. While the main “message” of the REGNUM that such a solution is possible. I personally doubt that the current government will have enough will power to lead Belarus out of the impasse, which has driven unions with Imperial Russia”, — he added.

“If the escalation does not stop soon, and go on increasing, the situation could quickly come to a complete rupture of relations” — has admitted in an interview with “Apostrophe” war correspondent Dmitry Galko.

“The peak of aggravation of the Belarusian side was the statement by Lukashenka that “brotherly Ukraine is fighting for its independence” with a hint that he, too, is fighting for her, just on another front. His “accomplice” and a “traitor”, and who else not named. And with the Russian — made through the news Agency “REGNUM” stuffing that Belarus can go to the forest until the release of all allied structures, and it is for nothing. Well, only the money apart. More precisely, the Agency, this cistern of the Kremlin, announced that Belarus is prepared to go everywhere. So much for the rhetoric. At the level of action Russia has introduced border area, the foreign Ministry of Belarus called a step to “full border”. But added at the same time, pay special attention, not “let’s live together”, and — “we first started.” Here the two interpretations can not be. It is felt suddenly in the Ministerial voice of Sass and PEP. In short, Veseli, brother, chasi has come. In frozen for many years Belarus back story. With all the lurking in the historical processes of opportunities and risks” — concluded Dmitry Galko.