Ukrainians began to eat less, but more to build: as the economy was recovering

Ukraine’s economy is slowly rebounding in the past year, compared with 2015, the decline in production in all key sectors has changed, though small, growth. Talking about it data of the state service of statistics. However, experts call it a “restoration” due to low comparison base. For example, the downturn in the industry in 2015 compared to 2014 was 13%, and its growth in 2016 compared to 2015 was 2.4%, i.e. to the level of 2014, our industry is still far away. But it’s good that the economy has found the bottom and gradually went up.

I HAVE. As you can see from the infographic, industrial production is recovering with difficulty: coal mining and metal smelting has gone up, but gas, the country produced the same as in 2015. Pleased with agriculture, although here amid the crops growth and export of grain, sunflower oil, the continuing fall in livestock, poultry, the reduction in milk yield and egg production at all has fallen by 10%. Retail trade also gave an increase of +4% (in the money), but a year ago it was the collapse of 20.4% with inflation at 25%. That is, the Ukrainians continued to buy fewer goods than in 2014.

But in housing the nation invests more clearly than previously — after last year’s fall at 14.9% have an increase of 15.2%. And that’s not all — steadily continues to develop light industry: for example, produced 88 million square meters of fabric (+6.4%, and in 2015 growth was 5%), made 22.5 million pairs of footwear (+0.1% in 2015 was the same).

EXPERTS. Economists consider the figures of state Statistics through the prism of the strong decline of the economy in 2014-2015. “While we see a slight recovery after a fall, but not growth — analyzes economist Ivan Nikitchenko. Sector in which the fall is very bad result and it shows a deep crisis in the sector. For example, animal to the crisis has not managed to grow even before the 1990 levels, and the continued decline says about the big issues. A comprehensive program for the development of the industry, financial support, first and foremost, small and medium farms. Construction went into decline due to the influx in the industry money that were in Bank accounts bankrupt: many people no longer trust the banks and started to invest in real estate. In addition, the developers undertook the resuscitation of the old projects.”

The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko noted that trade last year grew only in monetary terms due to inflation and in pieces and kilograms fell, first of all it concerns products and premium goods. Engineering survived at the expense of the old order in the CIS, primarily the supply of components for power and spare parts. But growth in construction contributes primarily to the population, began to invest their savings in square meters, as a reliable way to save money. “The positive thing that the economy’s decline has stopped, but there are no preconditions to ensure that they will go fast recovery, — says Ohrimenko. You need foreign investment. But it’s hard to hope while in our country there is political stability and there is a war”.

Forecast for 2017: I hope for myself

Still, experts are optimistic. According to Nikitchenko, this year will have an economic growth of 2-3%. “But it is a fragile recovery, and in 2016, with a strong dependence on external factors, both economic and political, such as obtaining or failure to obtain foreign loans and support from the international community,” said Nikitchenko. Okhrimenko does not expect major improvements in heavy industry, while there will be no peace in the East. “We will increase the production of products that we will continue to export both old and new markets, but it is not the EU, and the middle East and Southeast Asia. So how to revive the building, it will require more materials. But ill have a small business that caters to large structures in mechanical engineering, energy sector, supplying them with components and services. The reason is the reduction in production there. Also, self-employed hit increase mentorplace and a monthly payment of ERUs”.