What can Moscow offer to Baku in exchange for Karabakh?

Response of official Baku to the statement of the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov that the Karabakh conflict is not an internal affair of Azerbaijan, has not kept itself waiting.

In an interview with the Azerbaijani news Agency APA, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov rather not answer Lavrov and urged Russia to get more actively involved in the settlement process of the Karabakh conflict.

He, as well as the former President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan expressed confidence that a solution to the Karabakh conflict is in Moscow. “If Russia will seriously resolve this issue, ensure the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan”,- said Mammadyarov. This statement was made in an interesting situation when the President of Moldova Igor Dodon visited Moscow and announced the restoration of strategic relations with Russia.

One of the goals of this step is the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict in exchange for the fact that Moldova, which is still considered the flagship of European integration, are willing to sacrifice this. And what is willing to sacrifice Azerbaijan or that it can offer Russia to start a process of withdrawal of Armenian troops from “occupied territories”? To join the Eurasian economic Union, to make concessions in the negotiations on the division of Caspian waters? Or Baku holds in his hand another card or even go on a bluff within the logic of megafonovskoy diplomacy?

At the same time, the experts can hardly imagine what and generally how can Russia seriously engaged in the Karabakh conflict to Baku desires fulfilled. “If it means providing a direct pressure on Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh from Russia, then it is not conflict resolution, but something else. On the other hand, the question arises — why should Russia to exert such pressure. For the sake of what?” asks the Director of Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan, and says: “It’s not serious. You can now join the EAEU, and tomorrow to get out of it”.

In the return statement Mammadyarov nothing new and no special diplomatic sense does not see and the Russian analyst Sergei Markedonov. “This is normal and done in the framework of political correctness statement. What did Lavrov say something new? Of course, the Karabakh conflict is not an internal affair of Azerbaijan, if it was an internal affair, then why is acting OSCE Minsk group?” — he said, adding that indifferent to the statements on the settlement of the issue through a definite involvement of a mediator.

“Not surprising from such statements, as they made for the past twenty years, but the problem has its own inner logic and development that comes under this logic. And these developments, in spite of all the efforts of the mediators, at the moment are to the field of logic even greater escalation of tension and clashes, not settlement. We all remember the events of the April war,” he said.

It turns out that the settlement of the Karabakh conflict depends very little on external factors and dose and their influence. “The problem is not conflict resolution in the parties to the conflict. The approaches of the parties to the conflict concerning the settlement radically different from each other. For this reason, when the parties at least formally agree to so-called Madrid principles, right after that they understand or perceive the principles differently. For example, contained in these principles the point of definition of status of Nagorno Karabakh through the will of Baku understands that Karabakh should be part of Azerbaijan, and Armenia on the contrary — that Artsakh (Karabakh) should be independent. In these circumstances, to talk about the settlement of the conflict by external pressure is not realistic,” in turn, noted Iskandaryan, recognizing that the parties are under pressure, but it is aimed at the intensification of the negotiations and the avoidance of military rhetoric.

In the conflicting sides there is a strong domestic opposition even to these appeals and pressures, which is stronger at the moment than the external pressure. “Therefore, in my opinion, the statement Mammadyarov about the greatest role of Russia in this case something other than a diplomatic gesture made in response to the famous statement of Lavrov. Mammadyarov just couldn’t say nothing,” concluded Iskandaryan.