What Vladimir Putin really wants from Donald trump

It is not necessary to embrace with the Kremlin, and you can get burned. If you don’t believe unverified sensational stories about Russian attempts to bring to power and to discredit Donald trump to recognize the danger of flirting elected President Vladimir Putin. Mr. trump — tycoon-Builder, and the Russian President — a former head of a ruthless Federal security service (FSB). Their strength is definitely unequal.


One important victory, Mr. Putin won before the arrival of Mr. trump in the White house. When the American special services next time I’ll be announcing a security threat — for example, due to another Russian invasion of Ukraine, or because of attempts to undermine any democratically elected government in Eastern Europe, the Kremlin is what to say to that. If the owner of the Oval office does not believe the CIA, the national security Agency or the Federal Bureau of investigation, why they should believe the rest? Of course, Mr. trump and so broke all the political rules to get to the presidency, but the President is fighting with those who ensure the safety of America, is too.


Of course, intelligence agencies are not always right. The CIA still long time to pay for the erroneous assessment of the weapons programs of Saddam Hussein. However, the fact that the Kremlin broke into the computers of the Democratic party during the presidential campaign, the scouts almost completely convinced.


The Republican leaders in Congress believed them. Rex Tillerson (Rex Tillerson), put forward by Mr. trump for the post of Secretary of state, called the “equitable” assumption that similar cyber attacks could be undertaken only with the approval of Mr. Putin.

However, Mr. trump chose to execute the Gazette: this week he announced the leak on Moscow allegedly collected the compromising evidence on his part waged by U.S. intelligence of a witch hunt, which is directed against the elected President. When he asked with emotion, not in Nazi Germany if he lives, it was hard not to wonder about how not crazy he.


On Wednesday Mr. trump ran a surprisingly incoherent and nonsensical press conference. On its results it was difficult to know if he was going to reset relations with Russia. He still claims that he wants to find a common language with Mr. Putin, but adds that they may not get along. He also said that although the Kremlin was probably guilty of hacking into the computers of the National Committee of the Democratic party, however, leaks from us intelligence much worse than that. At the same time, although good relationships with Moscow, probably, would help US to fight ISIS (organization banned in Russia — approx. pens), he’s still not going to cancel the sanctions imposed by President Barack Obama against Russia.


The idea that the White house has the sense to demonstrate to the Russian President, a certain “respect” to reduce tension not cause any particular objections. Mr. Putin is eager to see him recognized right to a place among the leaders of the major powers. However, he is no less touchy than Mr. trump: in fact, they are real brothers in narcissism. If crony manners, Mr. trump will help to heal wounded pride, Mr. Putin will only rejoice.


If the US and Russia will find a way to resolve their differences, the world will become safer. It worked to a certain extent to achieve it even in the midst of the cold war. The current military build-up in Eastern Europe and the Baltic sea is not beneficial to either parties. Both powers have too many nuclear bombs in the arsenals, so they can afford to discount the risk of accidental confrontation.


However, don’t confuse cooperation with submission, and the necessary containment provocation. Attempts to “speak with Moscow” should not push America to that species of geopolitical realism, which assumes that the West must always give.


What he wants from the Kremlin, Mr. trump is not yet clear, but the problem of Mr. Putin’s crystal clear. He wants the West put up with Russian revanchism in Ukraine and the ruthless bombing of the civilian population that Russia provides in Syria, supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Further, he wished to Moscow was lifted economic sanctions, and the final goal is the withdrawal of America from Europe and the establishment of a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union.


When representatives of the Kremlin talking about the new European security architecture, they mean the cessation of the us presence in Europe. Once the cold war ended, Americans, time to come home. This also implies that Georgia, Belarus, Moldova, Central Asia and Ukraine “belongs” to Moscow. NATO, in turn, outlived its usefulness, and in the former Warsaw Pact countries, certainly, nothing to do.


These ambitions may seem impractical, however, to publicly show Mr. trump’s contempt for NATO and its active unwillingness to support allies give Mr. Putin a chance. Mr. trump less interested in maintaining American world than in the conclusion of “deals” with other great powers. Well, the Europeans can pay for their safety.


The world of Mr. Putin and the world Mr. trump is the same world in which the shift to international rules and norms come narrowly understood national interests, and weak countries bend to the will of the strong. In Europe it used to be called “balance of power”.


Mr. trump is already facing certain obstacles. The scandal of cyber attacks questioning his motives and objectivity, and the Senate hearing on the issue on approval of candidacy of Mr. Tillerson demonstrated that the party of Mr. trump refers to Mr. Putin, very different than himself. However, the Kremlin clearly not satisfied with the progress that he has reached. In addition, it is difficult to say how will Mr. trump in the White house. If I say we are in for dangerous times, it, apparently, would be a clear understatement.