The dollar on the year: scenarios and forecasts of experts

The hryvnia is cheaper again. Yesterday some of the exchange rate came to 28.9 UAH/$, and the average cash dollar sold at 28,48 UAH, bought — 27,73 that 50 kopecks more expensive than the day before. Financial analysts predict that in the coming year, the waiting for the inevitable currency devaluation. How will the course within the year, found out Today.

The main reason for the cheapening of the hryvnia — the instability of the global economy, weak growth of our economy and Ukraine’s dependence on energy imports, which again began to rise.

According to experts of FOREX CLUB in Ukraine, for 2016, the Ukrainian hryvnia has depreciated by 12.9%, or approximately UAH 3 logging in 10 of the weakest currencies in the world, but still far behind the five antiliderov (see infographic).

The devaluation has occurred from-for excess of imports over exports, first of all he was affected by the purchase of gas before topstone, price volatility in commodity markets and the nationalization of “PrivatBank”, explained a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB Andrey Shevchishin.

“The main external risk is the outbreak of a trade war between the US and China (start to sell goods to other countries at low prices to make them competitive. — Ed.) able to provoke a crisis out of which countries will see the devaluation of national currencies. And Ukraine will not be able to be in the side, — the Shevchishin. — In the baseline scenario, the expected average annual rate of 27-28,5 UAH/$. But negative developments, the hryvnia could weaken to 28-30,5 grn/$ and more, depending on the policy of the NBU and the government.”

The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko more pessimistic: “the Average rate on a year — 30 UAH/$, but it could be 27-27,5 if you match the following factors will increase the currency inflow from migrant workers and grain exporters and metal, oil prices will not grow more than $70/barrel (currently $56), the NBU will no longer close banks, and the government will actively carry out reforms. Otherwise, perhaps 33 UAH/$. While the likelihood that the course to the end of the year will be below 30 UAH/$, equal to more than 50%”.