The coming year it is expected calm on the outside for the Ukrainian authorities, but needs to be decisive action to further lead the country out of the crisis, political analysts believe. His vision of what policieson-2017, said the scientists Vadim Karasev, Taras Berezovets and Alexander paly.
THAT IS. Experts say that today the situation is positive: the economy is recovering, the Parliament has a solid majority, adopted the law for deregulation of business and the economy from the shadows. “The crisis mode is overcome, there are no contradictions between the President and Prime Minister, as it was a year ago — said Karasev. The main three risks: this is indicated by the reluctance of businesses to increase by half mentorplace, a decline in interest in the world to the problems of Ukraine and the importance for us to perform the Minsk agreement despite the fact that the Parliament have more of a “Antipinsky”. Berezovets also indicates that the economy began to develop and it is necessary to maintain the pace of reforms, so that people can see: there are changes for the better. And Paliy believes that stability in Ukraine threatens to reduce support from the West, and as a political in connection with the elections in the United States, and economic, for it may ease sanctions against Russia that will hit Ukraine.
WHAT TO DO. Most important, according to Karasev, as quickly as possible to convince business and local authorities, which are now funded by “their” state, that it is necessary to execute the law on increase of mentorplace. This will increase receipts in the budget and maintain the stability of the hryvnia. “This is the only serious conflict of entrepreneurs with the government, but the incentives — carrots and sticks. The whip, the tax police, numbering 50 thousand employees, and a system of fines for non-admission of the inspectors, and the carrot — for example, timely return of VAT, — said Karasev. — Perform revenue side of the budget the Parliament must quickly adopt a law on land market (the lifting of the moratorium. — Ed.)”. According to paly, it is also necessary to monitor and local authorities that they did not cut doctors and teachers did not translate their part-time, so as not to raise the salary. As Berezovets draws attention to the intensification of foreign policy: “we need a rebooting of relations with the United States and the visit of our President to this country, so as to trump Ukraine is now less of a priority than it was for Obama. You also need to connect to the Minsk agreement, the US and the UK, and in any case do not allow the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation.” Also, according to experts, this year we need to start “big” privatization. Paly, in turn, said that Ukraine should “put the squeeze” of the EU with the issue of granting visa-free regime. Although he fears that the outflow to the West of the most productive and skilled part of the population, especially young people.
FORECASTS. Experts believe that even if there will be any progress either in the one direction, the first half of the year will be calm. Slight political unrest at the end of April, when the immunity expires a year from the government of Groisman. “But Groisman stand, as now in the Parliament there are no serious opposition forces, and special claims to the work’s premiere either, — says Berezovets. — Perhaps replace certain Ministers who are not active enough”. But if the authorities can not solve economic and political problems until fall, the situation in the country worsen. “Fall can be even early elections of the Parliament,” Karasyov predicts. But Berezovets and paly believe that under any scenario to expect the elections this year is not necessary. “The opposition does not have the powerful potential to disrupt the situation,” argues paly.
The strategy of the Cabinet for four years
Happy in addition to ambitious plans and our government. Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman told about five areas of work of the Cabinet until 2020. The first is the growth of the economy, which will contribute to the creation of new jobs, increase of salaries, the simplification of the collection of taxes and deregulation, attracting investment, especially in agribusiness, which you need to remove the moratorium from the sale of farmland. I also want to increase gas production and to reduce its consumption due to the modernization in the public sector, more to build and repair roads, develop port infrastructure and the transportation industry. The second is to introduce e — governance that will reduce corruption, strengthen the decentralization of power. Third — health care reform. The Prime Minister also promised to improve the education (transition to 12-year-old and the revival of vocational schools) and to raise pensions. Fourth — 2020 needs to start working a fair judicial system. Finally, continue to strengthen the defense. Experts approve of the plans, but say that may not be enough money because the government is trying to cover all areas of life.